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Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers Odds Analysis - Betting Prediction

Miami Heat (44-38 SU, 40-36-6 ATS) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (52-30 SU, 47-33-2 ATS)
Time: Saturday, April 14th, 2018 – 8:05 PM EDT
Where: Wells Fargo Arena – Philadelphia, PA
by Keith, Professional NBA Handicapper, Predictem

Odds Miami +235, Philadelphia -300
Point Spread: Philadelphia -6.5
Total Line: 212

The Philadelphia 76ers and the Miami Heat will square off for the first round of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals Game One on Saturday, April 14th, 2018. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:05 PM EDT and set to be aired on ESPN live from the City of Brotherly Love. Miami had won the last two meetings in this conference series and were the authors of a victory at home in March when they hosted the Sixers. The Heat would win 108-99 covering a one-point line. Previous to their two wins, Philadelphia had won two straight against Miami.

Both teams enter off wins but the connotation of these victories are contrasting. For Philadelphia, the Sixers streaked into the playoffs on a high note. In their last ten games, Philadelphia won all ten to secure the number three seed in the playoff bracket. Miami comes into the playoffs as a number six seed. Miami owns an overtime win against Toronto in their most recent outing but this was against a Raptors team that were resting starters in preparation for the post-season.

Betting Trends

There are several key betting trends worth focusing on in this contest. First off, Miami is 17-23 SU away from home this season. The Sixers on the other hand have been a dominant force at home going 30-10 SU in the Wells Fargo Arena. Against the spread, Philadelphia is 27-13 at home. On the road, the Heat are 23-15-2 ATS on the road.

Handicapping Analysis

The Heat enter with the defense that can quell this hot Philadelphia offense. Moreover, Miami is more responsible with the basketball and commit fewer turnovers in comparison to the Sixers. This offers Miami numerous chances to get back into this match or keep it closer than one would expect if they were to take advantage of Philadelphia miscues.

The Sixers are not the Philadelphia teams we have seen of old. This team is as dangerous as it gets as they come into the post-season peaking at the right time. This team has the talent and firepower to go deep into this competition. If Philadelphia were to advance with Boston losing their first-round series to Milwaukee, home court advantage will once again be prevalent in the Conference Semifinals. The Sixers are the more physical team on the boards compared to Miami. Inexperience in the playoffs as of recent is a factor that Sixers takers must take into consideration.

Public Money

From the early going, we have seen a lean take shape on the Heat reflected in the line move. The Sixers opening as a seven-point favorite before the line diminished to 6.5 where it currently stands. On the contrary, 89% of the public cash and 71% of the ticket action are in on the Sixers. Contrarily, 100% of the consensus like the Heat here in public forums. The Over/Under has risen by 6.5 points with 92% of the cash and 82% of the ticket action coming in on the Over to complement this narrative. See betting against the public.

Team vs Team Pick ATS

In what will be a rare Over/Under play, we will go forth and take the Under in this market. Defenses will dictate the ebb and flow of this contest. For Miami to have a chance in this game, they will need to muscle up to Philadelphia, and you can expect them to implement such a game plan to give them a competitive edge. The analytics indicate that there is massive money pouring in on Philadelphia despite Miami being given early love in the steam moves and consensus forum. Thus, picking a side is less of an optimal choice compared to the obvious selection of fading a public overlay on the Over/Under.

KEITH’s PICK: Under 212 at 5Dimes to get the best line on this game and guys if you don't have an account here, now is the time to save money all season long in NBA and MLB!

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How to Bet

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Pleasers - The opposite of a teaser. You're "giving" points away, making this bet a much tougher proposition to win.

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