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Handicapping

Houston Rockets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Pick

Houston Rockets (67-18 SU, 42-42-1 ATS) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (48-37 SU, 39-43-3 ATS)
Time: Monday, April 23, 2018– 8:00 PM EDT
Where: Target Center – Minneapolis, MN
TV: TNT / FSN / TSN
by Keith, Professional NBA Handicapper, Predictem

Odds Houston -250, Minnesota +210
Point Spread: Minnesota +5.5
Total Line: 219

The Minnesota Timberwolves will host the Houston Rockets for Game Four of the Western Conference Quarterfinals. The game is set to kick off at the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota on Monday, April 23rd, 2018 at 8:00 PM ET. The contest is televised on TNT for national audiences. Additional coverage is on both FSN and TSN. Clutch City had dominated this series. Then, Minnesota responded in Game Three with an impressive 121-105 win. The Rockets had jumped out to a 2-0 lead in this series, but now Minnesota can tie it up with a win at home in Game Four. Moreover, the Rockets saw an eight-game winning streak come to an end against Minnesota.

Minnesota's victory in Game Three is one that has to be classed as one of the best in the Playoffs and perhaps the entire season. The T-Wolves as an eighth seed showed why some prognosticated this outfit to upset Golden State in a first-round series had the cards fell right. In Game Three, the Rockets looked like the lower seed in this competition as Minnesota dominated the Rockets on the boards and in the shooting department.

Betting Trends

Several key betting trends are consequential in Game Four. First off, the Rockets are 31-11 SU outside of Clutch City. Minnesota has posted an identical win-loss record at home as they are 31-11 SU in Minneapolis. Houston remains 5-2 ATS in their previous seven meetings against the Wolves. See what is trending with our forum NBA handicappers.

Handicapping Analysis

The Timberwolves have established a rubric to beat Houston. After looking a 3-0 hole in the face, the Timberwolves responded with an impressive win on their home court. Given the fact they get Houston again at home, this upstart team has the momentum it needs to push forward and potentially equalize the series. Minnesota is a dangerous team because they are young and no one expects them to survive this series. Essentially they will play with nothing to lose and reckless abandon.

Despite the Game Three loss, Houston remains one of the elite squads in all the league. On any given night, the combination of point guard Chris Paul and shooting guard James Harden can explode and ignite an offense that has broken the 100-point threshold in eight of its last ten games.

Public Money

From out of the gate, we have seen a lean take shape on the Rockets despite the lack of a line movement. Compared to Game Three, we saw this market hang at the same exact number we posted in our Game Three play. 85% of the cash and 70% of the ticket action is on the Rockets to confirm this trend. In Over/Under markets, we have seen the figure also remain idle thanks to the public having a lack of sway on either option.

Team vs Team Pick ATS

Despite Minnesota’s impressive performance in Game Three, the market is reluctant to believe a duplicate performance is going to take shape in Game Four. Nevertheless, there is a lot of risks typically in backing a public team that has a lot of action from the consensus. When you toss in the fact that Houston is the top seed in the NBA Playoffs, the likelihood for an overlay is likely at a high level. However, in this case, we will have to side with the book and the public. If Minnesota were in a position to equalize this series, we would have seen a noticeable change in the offering price for this meeting. It is very likely Houston got too comfortable in Game Three, and we will not see them implement such a lax attitude in their follow-up. Swallow the points.

KEITH’s PICK: Houston -5.5 5Dimes to get the best line on this game and guys if you don't have an account here, now is the time to save money during the NBA playoffs and all season long in MLB!

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