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Handicapping

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Houston Rockets Pick

Minnesota Timberwolves (48-38 SU, 39-44-3 ATS) vs. Houston Rockets (68-18 SU, 43-42-1 ATS)
Time: Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 9:30 PM EDT
Where: Toyota Center – Houston, TX
TV: TNT / FSN / TSN
by Keith, Professional NBA Handicapper, Predictem

Odds Minnesota +700, Houston -1100
Point Spread: Houston -12
Total Line: 216

The Minnesota Timberwolves will once again travel to the Houston Rockets for Game Five of the Western Conference Quarterfinals. The game is scheduled for tip-off at the Toyota Center on Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 at 9:30 PM ET. The fixture aired on TNT for national audiences. Corresponding coverage offered on TSN and FSN. The series has been dominated by "Clutch City." The Rockets have won ten of the last eleven meetings between both parties. In Game One, Minnesota came close to stealing a win in Clutch City when a three-ball separated the two teams. Houston would go up 2-0 before Minnesota would respond with an epic Game Three victory in the Twin Cities. The Rockets would follow this up with a dominant 119-100 win in Game Four.

It is worth annotating that the Rockets come in as the number one seed in all of the NBA. Minnesota is the eight seed. They have been far less competitive in contrast to the Toronto/Washington series that is level at 2-2 at the moment. The Timberwolves are staring elimination right in the face against a team that is also one of the best at home in the league.

Betting Trends

Many key betting trends are worth focusing on in Game Five. First off, the Rockets are 37-7 SU in Houston. Minnesota is just 17-27 SU on the road outside of Minneapolis. At home, however, Houston is 18-25 against the spread which reflects a propensity for their home court advantage to be overvalued.

Handicapping Analysis

At this point, the narrative of must-win is what compels many to back the Timberwolves. It is simply win and go home or go home ousted from the playoffs. What we have seen from elimination situations is that the dog usually plays at a higher level out of pure desperation. San Antonio came in under an 11-point number last night against Golden State as they were eliminated.

The Rockets Game Four performance in Minneapolis showed why this team is one of the most feared in the NBA. The result left an impression on takers across the country as they absolutely dominated. Houston has shown they have the offensive proficiency that could carry them all the way to an NBA Finals and perhaps a championship ring. It seems at this point, a Houston-Golden State collision is inevitable.

Public Money

From the get-go, there has been a lean on the Rockets reflected in the market rising by a point since the open. The money has been all Houston as 90% of the cash, and 85% of the ticket action is on the Rockets as well. 100% of the consensus like Clutch City public forums. In, Over/Under markets, we have seen the figure drop by three points to reflect steam on the Under. 99% of the cash and 66% of the ticket action is on the Under to reflect this. 100% of the consensus also like the Under in this spot.

Team vs Team Pick ATS

In this market, the most appetizing selection is the Over at 216. The scenario sets up for this to be a high-scoring affair where Minnesota will throw the kitchen sink at Houston. The Rockets will simply outscore them to secure the Game Five win and series victory. However, there is plenty of breathing room for the Timberwolves to come in under this number. Even if the game gets out of hand, there is backdoor potential. If Houston builds a huge lead, they will pull their starters to get them ready for the Conference Semifinals. Minnesota, on the other hand, would fight until their last gasp.

KEITH’s PICK: Minnesota +12 at 5Dimes to get the best line on this game and guys if you don't have an account here, now is the time to save money during the NBA playoffs and all season long in MLB!

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