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Handicapping

Golden State Warriors vs. San Antonio Spurs Pick

Golden State Warriors (61-24 SU, 37-47-1 ATS) vs. San Antonio Spurs (47-38 SU, 42-41-2 ATS)
Time: Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 3:30 PM EDT
Where: Alamodome – San Antonio, TX
TV: ABC / TSN
by Keith, Professional NBA Handicapper, Predictem

Odds Golden State -290, San Antonio +245
Point Spread: San Antonio +6.5
Total Line: 203.5

The San Antonio Spurs and the Golden State Warriors will square off for Game Four of the Western Conference Quarterfinals set to take place in San Antonio, Texas. The game scheduled for tip-off at 3:30 PM EDT and televised on ABC for national audiences. The corresponding telecast will be available on TSN, as well. So far, the series has been all Warriors. Golden State jumped out to a commanding 3-0 lead after they once again routed the Spurs on their home court in Game Three. Golden State has been a tough test for San Antonio as the Warriors have gone 11-1 SU against the Spurs in their last twelve matches.

This series has been one of the most lopsided in the playoff competition. In each of the three Golden State victories, the Warriors have won by double-digit margins in all of the contests. Most recently, the Warriors defeated the Spurs by 13 points. Previous to this, the difference was 15 and 16 points respectively. Entering this contest, San Antonio is looking to avert a sweep. This is something that Greg Popovich teams are not accustomed to. Nevertheless, the Spurs are staring a broom right in the face as they prepare for Game Four.

Betting Trends

There are several key betting narratives worth focusing on in this contest. First off, Golden State is 9-3 ATS against San Antonio in the previous twelve meetings. San Antonio is 26-15 SU home while Golden State is 30-15 SU away from home. Historically, both teams are known for a robust home court advantage. However, these teams have been quite human at home as of recently revealed by the outcome of Game Three in the Alamodome.

Handicapping Analysis

No one wants to get swept. This is the motivational factor for San Antonio as they head to the court for Game Four. With a veteran coach like Greg Popovich at the helm, the Spurs have the intangible of basketball fundamentals to their advantage. This team simply knows how to win when it needs to, and previous endeavors that have gone their way would make the Spurs a good choice in this market.

As mentioned the Warriors are a defending NBA Champion, in fact, they have won two the last three finals. Despite having a mediocre year compared to previous initiatives at insane levels, the Warriors have an array of prolific talent to again repeat as NBA Champions. It is also worth reiterating that the Warriors feature the best offense in the NBA. Golden State lead the league in points per game, field goal percentage, free throw percentage, and three-point shooting percentage. This makes Golden State a popular choice in any format. See "Good teams win straight up while bad teams cover".

Public Money

Out of the gate, we have seen a lean take shape on the Warriors. As a result, we have seen a half-point line movement materialize. 93% of the cash and 89% of the ticket action is on Golden State to confirm this. In the Over/Under, we have seen the market remain idle. Nevertheless, 99% of the public cash and 95% of the ticket action is on the Over.

Team vs Team Pick ATS

Since Golden State has been a cash cow in this series, many takers are going to likely jump ship on the Spurs here as the sweep looks imminent. This may very well be the case, but we do not want to get caught in this betting phenomenon called a zig-zag. Very simply, we have been targeting Golden State due to their propensity to be overvalued. With each win and cover they rack up, that tendency is greater. Moreover, the tendency for Golden State to see more action also increases as a result. Now more than ever is the best time to fade the Warriors.

KEITH’s PICK: San Antonio +6.5 at 5Dimes to get the best line on this game and guys if you don't have an account here, now is the time to save money during the NBA playoffs and all season long in MLB!

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How to Bet

Point Spread - The most basic of basketball wagers.

Moneyline - For those that simply want to bet on a team to win straight up.

Totals - Also known as an over/under. This bet has nothing to do with who which team wins or by how many. You're simply predicting if both teams points scored will exceed or fall short of the posted total.

Parlays - Multi-team wager where all must win in order to get paid. Big risk and big reward.

Teasers - Multi-team bet where you get to move the line a certain amount of points on each game. All teams must cover the teased point spreads to cash.

Pleasers - The opposite of a teaser. You're "giving" points away, making this bet a much tougher proposition to win.

Prop Bets - Wagers not having to do with which team wins the game or by how many. These usually pertain to wagers on individual players points scored, rebounds, assists, steals, etc.

NBA Futures - Bet on your favorite team to win their division, conference or the NBA Finals. A great bet for those looking to risk very little for a potentially large payoff.

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