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New York Giants (10-6) +7.5, 47 O/U at Dallas Cowboys (13-3) -7.5,
47 O/U, Texas Stadium, 4:30 PM Eastern, Sunday
by Badger of Predictem.com
Two teams that play in the same division will surprisingly play in their first-ever playoff game versus one another, when the New York Giants travel on Sunday to Texas Stadium in Dallas to take on the Dallas Cowboys in the other NFC Divisional Playoff game.
The Cowboys beat the Giants twice during the regular season, both times by double digits (45-35 on September 9th; 31-20 on November 11th). Dallas however did limp toward the finish line at the end of the regular season, losing two out of their final three games.
The Giants on the other hand are playing some of their best football this season of late. After pushing the Patriots to the limit in the regular season finale (a 38-35 loss), the G-Men responded last weekend with an impressive 24-14 victory over Tampa Bay in the opening round of the NFC playoffs.
Oddsmakers opened the game with the Cowboys as a 7.5-point favorite, with a 48 over/under total.
Dallas struggled down the stretch on offense as quarterback Tony Romo started to show his inexperience under pressure. Romo had an outstanding season overall (4,211 yds., 36 TDs), but he threw more interceptions (five) then touchdowns (one) during the Cowboys final three games of the season. Terrell Owens (1,355 yds., 15 TDs) suffered a high ankle sprain in the Carolina game in week 16 and will be a game-time decision on whether or not the mouth will be able to play in the Cowboys opening playoff game. Expect running back Marion Barber (973 yds,. 10 TDs) and tight end Jason Witten (1,145 yds., 7 TDs) to carry more of the load with T.O. limited. When fully loaded, the Cowboys offense is one of the NFL’s most potent (3rd overall – 365.4 ypg) and most dangerous (28.4 ppg – 2nd) units on the field.
Much like San Diego’s Phillip Rivers, Giants quarterback Eli Manning answered critics last week with a strong performance in the opening round of the playoffs. Manning controlled himself and his team in the win over Tampa, and looked more like the No. 1 pick overall that he was coming out of college than the choke artist he was in his previous seasons. The Giants offense is similar to the Cowboys in that they have a solid No. 1 receiver in Plaxico Burress (1,025 yds., 12 TDs), and a strong 1,000-yard rusher in Brandon Jacobs. On the season the Giants finished 16th in total yards (331.5 ypg) and 14th in scoring (23.3 ppg).
The Cowboys defense uses a 3-4 scheme that finished the season as the league’s 9th best unit overall (307.6 ypg). The ‘Boys are strong versus the run (94.6 ypg – 6th) with one of the fastest corps of linebackers and nose tackle Tank Johnson taking on double teams to keep them free to flow to the ball. Despite having one of the best pass rushers in Demarcus Ware coming off the edge, the Cowboys are vulnerable against the pass as the secondary ended the season just 14th overall (213.1 ypg). They also tend to give up long scoring plays, with a 20.3 points per game average to show for it (13th).
The Giants defense has been improving week to week all season long, and last week played one of their best games of the season versus the Bucs. The NFL’s 8th overall unit (305.6 ypg) features a strong line with Osi Umenyiora and Michael Strahan, a run-stuffing middle linebacker in Antonio Pierce, and a young but talented secondary with rookies Aaron Ross and Corey Webster playing like seasoned vets. If the Giants can get starting cornerback Sam Madison back from his abdominal strain (listed as questionable), the secondary that gives up 208.4 yards per game (11th) should be able to match up with the Cowboys, even with T.O. playing.
Not only did the Cowboys sweep the season series against the Giants, but they covered the spread in both games too. Prior to the Cowboys run this year, it is actually the Giants who have had better success for bettors, going 4-0-2 ATS in the three previous years.
The Giants have also enjoyed a better run this season overall, going 11-6 ATS including three in a row and five of their last six. The G- Men are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games versus an NFC opponent, while the under play is a strong 7-1 in their last eight road games.
Dallas ended the year with a 9-7 ATS record, including a 6-2 ATS record at home. Their ATS record mirrors their stumble at the tape at the end of the year, as they have failed to cover the number in their last four games of the regular season. Romo and the offense did cash in for bettors on the over, as they went over the total in 10 of the 16 games this season.
The spread hasn’t moved much since it opened at Dallas -7.5. Most places still have that as the current number, although a few offshore sportsbooks (Pinnacle and 5Dimes) have moved the number up to Dallas -9. The total has remained at 47 since it opened. The Cowboys are -333 on the moneyline, while the Giants are a +303.
Badger’s Pick: I’m going with a gut feeling on this one. First, it’s very hard to beat the same team three times in a season. Second, the Cowboys are dinged up (specifically T.O.) and are not playing well lately, while the G-Men seem to be hitting their stride right at the perfect time. And third, Romo has yet to win a playoff game in his career and he appears to be more concerned with chasing skirts (i.e. Jessica Simpson) then studying film. You could take a flyer on the Giants with a +303 moneyline bet, but if nothing else take the Giants plus the points here.
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