2008 Super Bowl Preview and Pick

New York Giants (13-6) +12.5, 54 O/U vs. New England Patriots (18-0) -12.5, 54 O/U, University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Ariz., 6:30 PM Eastern, Sunday, February 3rd
by Badger of Predictem.com

After a 17 week regular season and three more weeks of postseason play the entire NFL season has all come down to this – it will be the New York Giants and the New England Patriots in Super Bowl 42 Sunday, February 3rd, at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

The Patriots continued their trek as the team of destiny with a solid, but unspectacular 21-12 victory over the San Diego Chargers in the AFC Championship game last Sunday. Quarterback Tom Brady actually looked human for the first time all season, throwing three interceptions against an inspired Charger defense. But the Patriots running back combo of Laurence Maroney (122 yards, TD) and Kevin Faulk (8 catches, 82 yards) bailed Brady out of a bad day (he still threw for 209 yards and 2 TDs) as the Pats remained undefeated and moved one game closer to perfection.

New York is also starting to have the look of a team with a higher purpose. The Giants won their 10th straight game on the road, and their third in the playoffs, knocking off the Green Bay Packers, 23-20, in overtime to win the NFC Championship. Despite the nay-sayers claiming he couldn't perform in the cold, quarterback Eli Manning had a solid performance (21-of-40, 254 yards) in leading the Giants into field goal range three times late in the game. Kicker Lawrence Tynes finally made a 47-yarder in overtime to send the Giants into a rematch game with the Patriots in the Super Bowl.

Football Sportsbooks wasted no time in immediately pegging the Patriots as 14-point favorites, with a total of 55.

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, by now you know all about the Patriots and their prolific offense. But for the first time in three weeks Brady and Co. were held well below their season average of 36.8 points per game, with only 21 points versus the Chargers. Brady struggled at times with the wind and if the Chargers weren’t so depleted on offense, the Pats may have been had last week.

Maroney and the Pats offensive line stepped up big time versus the Bolts, proving to the world that even with Brady having a down game the Patriots still have a well-balanced and adaptable offense regardless of conditions.

The Giants offense actually looked like they handled the minus-degree weather at Lambeau Field better then the Packers. Receiver Plaxico Burress was nearly unstoppable, Manning did an excellent job of taking what the defense gave, and both Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw gained just enough yardage on the ground to balance the offensive attack.

While the Giant offense has yet to score more than 24 points in a single playoff game, they have shown the consistency and capability of a team willing to play all four quarters and grind it out when they need to at clutch time.

It truly is hard to gauge how well the Patriots defense played in the AFC title game because the Chargers offense was depleted and not nearly at full power. That said though, they did limit the Bolts to just field goals once they did get into the red zone. Both the Chargers and Jaguars have compiled over 300 yards of total offense in the two playoff games, so it is by no means a stretch to say they are not as good as the 4th-best (scoring and yardage) unit in football, where they ended the regular season ranked.

The Giants on the other hand have gone on this incredible run through the playoffs almost entirely on the strength of the defense. Their front seven completely shut down the running game of the Packers (only 28 yards), and with the exception of the first half of the Dallas game, they have shut down the running attack in all three games in the playoffs. Their banged-up secondary played well in the NFC title game, and should benefit the most from the two-week layoff before the Super Bowl kickoff.

Ironically, it was the Patriots 38-35 victory over the Giants in the final week of the regular season that has sparked the Giants into the rematch for the Super Bowl title. The offense has rallied around Eli Manning, Manning has played with supreme confidence since that game, and the defense that put it on the line to try and beat the undefeated Pats has since started to heal and regain the swagger it was missing early in the season.

For sports bettors, these two teams are exact opposites lately. New England failed to cover the 13-point spread in the Giants game, as they have failed to cover in both playoff games and in seven of their last eight game overall. The Giants on the other hand have covered in all three playoff games, have covered five straight and seven of the last eight overall.

Say what you will about the huge numbers the Patriots have been forced to try and cover since Thanksgiving (lowest 10.5, highest 22, average of 17), the fact of the matter is that the Linesmaker knows he can tag a three- to four-point “premium” on the Pats games and the public will still bet on them going undefeated.

Early betting money is all over this though, as the Pats have already dropped to a 12.5-point favorite as most Las Vegas sportsbooks, while some offshore sportsbooks like BoDog have even dropped the Pats to 11.5-point favorites.

With a retractable roof on the University of Phoenix stadium, weather will not be a factor for this game. Therefore the total of 55 has yet to move too much on early money, although it has come down to 54 or even 53.5 at some books.

Badger’s Pick: Jump fast like most of the sharp bettors have already and lock in the Giants with as many points as you can (you might find a +13 somewhere). While I don’t expect Brady to have another bad outing in back-to-back games, I do think the shine has come off the Pats offense a little. The Giants are playing with confidence and should be able to stay in this one long enough to cover the big number. I also like the over bet. The last time these two faced off, they went for 73 combined. It may not go that high again, but it will go over the 53.5 that some books have dropped it to already.

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