San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco 49ers – 2009 Season Preview
by Badger of Predictem.com

2008 Record – 7-9 (7-8-1 ATS)

Stadium: Candlestick Park
Head Coach: Mike Singletary (1st Season – 5-4 as interim coach in 2008)

Current 2009-2010 Super Bowl Odds – 55-to-1 at bodog.eu

Training Camp Site: San Francisco 49ers Complex, Santa Clara, Calif.

When the San Francisco 49ers stumbled out to a mistake-prone 2-5 start in 2008 their management team finally did what it should have done a few years earlier, punt the well dressed but overmatched head coach Mike Nolan from the sidelines.

They promoted defensive coordinator Mike Singletary to the interim position as head coach and Iron Mike turned things upside down … immediately. Including a well publicized tirade after his very first game as the head man when he literally kicked super-talented but yet- to-get-it tight end Vernon Davis off the bench and went off about how things were going to change under his watch. He also made waves when he benched a “hand-picked” player for the new offensive system, quarterback J.T. O’Sullivan, in favor of an undrafted career third- stringer, Shaun Hill.

The 49ers closed out the year at 5-4 under Singletary, which was good enough for the 49ers to take the “interim” tag off of his job title. But with much of the same roster, including a quarterback “battle” between Hill and Smith, the big question coming into the 2009 season is whether or not Iron Mike can pull more rabbits out of his hat and make the 49ers competitive in the weak-and-winnable NFC West.

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Who’s In/Who’s Out

One of the biggest departures in the offseason was that of offensive coordinator Mike Martz, who was brought in by Nolan to try and save his job and instead they both went down in flames.

The 49ers were surprisingly quiet during free agency this winter, picking up some quality along the offensive and defensive lines, but that was about it. The offensive line was bolstered when they signed Marvel Smith from Pittsburgh in March to become the starting right tackle. They also added depth along the d-line by signing Demetric Evans from Washington (3.5 sacks in ’08).

Receiver Brandon Jones (Tennessee) and fullback Moran Norris (Detroit) were also brought in during free agency, but both are role players and not blockbuster moves.

The biggest names the 49ers let go in the offseason were running back DeShaun Foster and receiver Bryant Johnson, and neither of them were big enough contributors to make 49ers fans shed a tear.

Draft Class 2009

San Francisco’s draft class is highlighted by their first-round pick Michael Crabtree of Texas Tech, but the receiver slipped to the 10th overall pick and still wants top-5 money and is one of the few unsigned picks of the draft. Crabtree’s agent has already played the “he’ll sit out all year” trump-card to try and spur negotiations, but both sides continue to posture and who knows when it will finally get done.

That makes third-round pick, running back Glen Coffee of Alabama, the 49ers biggest impact rookie of the class. Coffee has had a few strong preseason games already and will work his way into the backfield mix with Frank Gore from the get-go.

The rest of the 49ers draft class looks like fringe roster/practice squad players. 5th-round linebacker Scott McKillop and 5th-round QB Nate Davis will make it in some form or fashion, but 6th-round TE Bear Pascoe and 7th-rounders Curtis Taylor and Ricky Jean-Francois will need injuries, or a huge camp, or both to make it.

Offense

Jimmy Raye is the new coordinator, coming over from the Jets in the offseason. Raye’s style of run-first should fit the personnel better than the fun-n-gun Martz scheme.

Singletary recently announced the winner of the battle for the signal- caller’s job was Hill, meaning the eight-year vet has finally won an opening day start. Hill’s numbers last season (2,046 yds., 13 TD, 8 INT, 62.8 Comp%) aren’t very compelling to look at, but he plays that classic style of “don’t let mistakes beat you” to “take what the defense gives,” the style Singletary and his defense prefers to play.

The rookie Coffee should instantly help to improve the 49ers 27th- ranked rushing attack from last year (99.9 ypg). Gore struggled to a 1,000-yard season last year (1,036, 6 TD), so having Coffee to give him a blow every now and then will be key. And don’t forget the re- signing of the fullback Norris, a traditional “blocking” fullback who was tossed aside by Martz and his chuck-n-duck scheme. Gore had his 1,695-yard season running behind Norris in ’06.

The 49ers will need a better ground game to make up for a lack of depth at receiver, especially if the Crabtree holdout lasts into the season. Isaac Bruce is still a dangerous weapon (835 yds., 7 TD), but without Crabtree on the other side Bruce is likely to see double teams. Davis (31 rec., 2 TD) needs to finally put up or shut up too, and my guess is that Singletary is exactly the guy to get the tight end to do it on every Sunday.

Defense

The 49ers defense finished ’08 ranked 22nd in points allowed (21.2 ppg) and 23rd in total yards (311.1 ypg), so it’s kind of surprising that Singletary basically got a hall pass for his own unit stinkin’ it up and being mediocre. Middle linebacker has missed almost all of training camp with an Achilles injury, and corner Walt Harris is already lost for the season with an ACL tear, so there’s no doubt the defensive side of the ball could become a big issue this season.

Nose tackle Aubrayo Franklin teams up with last year’s first-round pick Kentwan Balmer to anchor the 49ers 3-4 scheme. Ends Justin Smith (7 sacks in ’08) and Isaac Sopoaga will be joined by Evans on passing downs to form a decent potential pass-rush.

The linebacking core is solid with Willis and Takeo Spikes on the inside, and Parys Haralson (team-high 8 sacks) and Manny Lawson on the outside. Somehow this crew finished ’08 as the 27th-ranked unit against the run, a number they must reverse to have success in 2009.

The secondary is already down Harris, but it should be okay with former Denver Bronco Dre’ Bly battling Tarell Brown and Shawntae Spencer for the right to start opposite Nate Clements at corner. Safeties Michael Lewis and Dashon Goldson are solid, but must improve their ball-hawking skills since the 49ers only had 12 interceptions as a team last season.

Special Teams

Joe Nedney was resigned in the offseason to continue as the 49ers kicker. Nedney was 29-of-33 in field goal attempts and still has plenty of leg left (long of 53) to get the job done in the NFL.

Punter Andy Lee is also back after a great ’08 season, when he had a 47.8 yard average and a 39.0 yard net average. He does have issues with directional punting towards the end zone, as he only pinned 13 punts out of 66 down inside the 20-yard line.

Like Nedney, return specialist Allen Rossum was resigned in the offseason for another go in 2009. His averages of 14.9 on punt returns and 26.8 on kickoffs are still toward the top of the league, and his 104-yard kickoff return for a score last year shows he’s still capable of taking it to the house on any given kick.

2009 Schedule

Sept. 13 – at Arizona Cardinals
Sept. 20 – SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Sept. 27 – at Minnesota Vikings
Oct. 4 – ST. LOUIS RAMS
Oct. 11 – ATLANTA FALCONS
Oct. 18 – Bye
Oct. 25 – at Houston Texans
Nov. 1 – at Indianapolis Colts
Nov. 8 – TENNESSEE TITANS
Nov. 12 – CHICAGO BEARS
Nov. 22 – at Green Bay Packers
Nov. 29 – JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Dec. 6 – at Seattle Seahawks
Dec. 14 – ARIZONA CARDINALS
Dec. 20 – at Philadelphia Eagles
Dec. 27 – DETROIT LIONS
Jan. 3 – at St. Louis Rams

Betting Odds and Projections

San Francisco was a losing proposition for sports gambler’s in 2008, ending the year with a juice-draining 7-8-1 record. Their over/under record of 8-7-1 trended toward the over, but still was the kind of frustrating display of inconsistency that makes bettors scream at the television and cuss at the coaching staff.

With more questions than answers right now, the 49ers are truly a long shot at winning Super Bowl 44 as they are currently listed at 55- to-1 odds at bodog.eu (See: Bodog Review). Hill is a good quarterback and a nice story, but he is definitely not a quarterback that will carry a team into the Superbowl, so any wagering on the Niners at 55-to-1 is throwing your money out the window … or at the window.

When you look at the Niners schedule you can’t help but think it may be a long year in Santa Clara. They have some really tough road games on the schedule (at Minn., at Indy, at Green Bay, at Philly), topped off with two tough home games against playoff teams (Atlanta and Tennessee), so it’s hard to see them improving over their 7-9 season last year. If they can somehow get to the bye week at 3-2 or better yet 4-1, it could give them enough confidence to make a push toward an 8-8 campaign.

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