2009 Chicago Bears Team Preview

Chicago Bears – 2009 Season Preview
by Badger of Predictem.com

2008 Record – 9-7 (6-8-2 ATS)

Stadium: Soldier Field
Head Coach: Lovie Smith (5th Season – 47-37)

Current 2009 SB Odds: 12-1

Training Camp Site: Olivet Nazarene University, Bourbonnais, Ill.
Training Camp Dates: July 31

I’m sure the Chicago Bears players got a giggle watching the highlights last year when the Philadelphia Eagles tied the Cincinnati Bengals, and quarterback Donovan McNabb’s subsequent confession that he didn’t know NFL games could end in a tie.

They’re certainly not laughing anymore, as it was that Eagles tie that gave them a mire-percentage points advantage over the Bears for the NFC’s final wild card spot in 2008.

The Bears weren’t satisfied with a solid 9-7 season though, and made the biggest splash in all of the NFL in the offseason by trading for quarterback Jay Cutler. Cutler and his divorce from Denver got messy and after 20-plus seasons of having a plethora of nobody’s at the position, the Bears suddenly find themselves with a Pro Bowler and arguably one of the best in the game for former starter Kyle Orton and two first-round picks,

Who’s In/Who’s Out

Cutler isn’t the only addition that should make the Bears a better football team in ’09.

The Bears also brought in two tackles to protect him on the offensive line, signing former Pro-Bowler Orlando Pace from the Rams and Frank Omiyale from Carolina. Pace will try and put behind him a few injury- plagued seasons and protect Cutler’s blind side now that last year’s starter John Tait retired. Omiyale was brought in for depth and an insurance policy in case former first-rounder Chris Williams has more back problems.

Linebacker Pisa Tinoisamoa was signed away after six seasons with St. Louis too, four of them as the Ram’s leading tackler, reuniting with Smith in a scheme he was drafted by the then-Rams defensive coordinator to play in originally. Tinoisamoa joins Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs to form a top-notch linebacker crew that now has Hunter Hillenmeyer as a backup.

The Bears also let longtime safety Mike Brown go to Kansas City in free agency.

Draft Class

The Bears sacrificed their 2009 draft to get Cutler, so Cutler is their draft.

They did get a potential sleeper in receiver Juaquin Iglesias from Oklahoma late in the third round. They also drafted a solid corner in D. J. Moore in the fourth round, but the rest of their class will likely struggle to make the final roster.

Offense

Comparing last year’s Bears offense under Orton, and now backup Rex Grossman, to this year’s one led by Cutler is literally comparing apples to oranges, but it’s a safe bet the passing game (21st – 191.3 ypg) will improve which will also likely improve their overall offensive numbers over last year (14th in scoring – 23.4 ppg; 26th in total yards – 295.9 ypg).

Although, one might have to ask how much the passing game can actually improve since the Bears best receiver is former returner Devin Hester. Hester, now the No.1 option, led the Bears in yards last year (665) but only scored three touchdowns. Earl Bennett, a former teammate of Cutler’s at Vanderbilt, could be a great sleeper as the Bears top option after Hester, but that honor will most likely end up with tight end Greg Olsen 54 rec., 5 TDs).

The presence of Cutler and his big arm should also help the Bears running game, especially Matt Forte. If not for the success of the two rookie QBs (Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco), Forte and his 1,238 yards and 8 TDs could have earned him Rookie of the Year honors. Forte had three 100+ yards games last year as a rookie, with all three coming on turf, so make sure to put him in your fantasy lineup on those weeks.

The offensive line will have to gel quickly with the additions of Pace, Omiyale and Williams, and if Pace and Williams continue to have health problems it could leave a huge hole in the Bears scheme.

Defense

After consecutive years of watching the Bears and their once Super- Bowl worthy defense drop in the rankings, Smith vowed to take over the game-day play calling again this year. The Bears ended ’08 as the 21st-ranked unit in yards allowed (334.7) and 16th in points allowed (21.9), so there’s plenty of room for improvement.

The Bears still stop the running game very well (5th – 93.5), but they had their issues in the secondary last year allowing 241.2 yards per game, the 30th-ranked or third worst mark in the NFL. And the secondary has already taken a big hit for 2009 when corner Charles Tillman had back surgery last week and is out indefinitely. Danieal Manning, Craig Steltz and Kevin Payne will compete to replace Brown at safety, so the unit will be young and inexperienced and vulnerable again.

Special Teams

Using Hester as a wide out full-time hurt his production as a returner last season, although that’s hard to judge since some teams finally stopped kicking it to him as well. With just a 6.2 average on punt returns, and a 21.9 mark on kickoffs, Hester was mortal in ’08 and will likely lose more opportunities to return kicks with his increased role on offense this year. Manning (29.7) had a better average on kick returns anyway and could take over on punt returns since he could be on the field already as the starting free safety.

Robbie Gould is a very accurate kicker, going 26-of-29 in 2008, but his lack of a booming leg has kept Smith from pulling the trigger on long field goal tries over his career and he never even attempted a 50 + kick in ’08.

Brad Maynard is a solid punter who also doesn’t possess the big leg (41.2 ave.), but gets great hang time (38.1 net) and is good and pinning teams down (40 inside the 20-yard line in ’08).

2009 Schedule

Sept. 13 – at Green Bay Packers
Sept. 20 – PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Sept. 27 – at Seattle Seahawks
Oct. 4 – DETROIT LIONS
Oct. 11 – Bye
Oct. 18 – at Atlanta Falcons
Oct. 25 – at Cincinnati Bengals
Nov. 1 – CLEVELAND BROWNS
Nov. 8 – ARIZONA CARDINALS
Nov. 12 – at San Francisco 49ers
Nov. 22 – PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Nov. 29 – at Minnesota Vikings
Dec. 6 – ST. LOUIS RAMS
Dec. 13 – GREEN BAY PACKERS
Dec. 20 – at Baltimore Ravens
Dec. 28 – MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Jan. 3 – at Detroit Lions

Odds and Projections

In the past, betting on the Bears meant putting your hard-earned cash on one of their crappy quarterbacks to just try and not lose the game for them. It didn’t work so well last year as their 6-8-2 against-the- spread record shows. Their lack of offense also hurt their over/under record in ’08, as the ended it at 7-9.

But at 12-to-1 odds to win the 2009 Super Bowl, the oddsmaker seems to think the addition of Cutler tips the scales in the Bears favor. It’s either that, or that they know that the public and the squares are always willing to bet on the trendy team and they figure the Bears are that team.

A fast start to the season will be crucial too, since they have three tough games to start their schedule with road games at Green Bay and Seattle sandwiched around a home game against the defending champion Steelers. The road game at Atlanta following the bye is another measuring-stick for the Bears season, since they follow that with four potentially easy, er, winable games following the Falcons.

At 12-to-1 the Bears aren’t worth the risk in my opinion as holes at receiver and the defensive secondary will keep them from the ultimate prize … Super Bowl 44.

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