Dallas Cowboys – 2009 Season Preview
by Badger of Predictem.com
2008 Record – 9-7 (7-9 ATS)
Stadium: Cowboys Stadium
Head Coach: Wade Phillips (3rd Season at Dallas/8th overall – 70-53
career record)
Current 2009-2010 Super Bowl Odds – 15-to-1 at BoDog.com
Training Camp Site: Alamo Dome, San Antonio, Texas
After back-to-back seasons of finishing with the best record in the NFC the Dallas Cowboys finally imploded from within last season, suffering through a 9-7 season that ended without a playoff bid when the Eagles slipped past then by percentage points.
So the Cowboys and owner Jerry Jones finally did what many people had been calling for him to do for years, releasing malcontent Terrell Owens and starting fresh with a new approach. How Jones and the Cowboys fans are going to handle going without the media hype and hourly updates of the T.O. saga on ESPN has yet to be determined, but that is the approach for now.
Additionally, the Cowboys will open the 2009 season playing inside the new state-of-the-art Cowboys Stadium, which Jones spent over a billion dollars to build. You can bet Jones would sell one of his family jewels to win the NFC East and showcase the new stadium with homefield advantage all the way up to Super Bowl 44.
Who’s In/Who’s Out
The Cowboys defense turned over a new leaf in the offseason when they let longtime veterans Greg Ellis and Roy Williams leave via free agency. They also gave up on veteran linebacker Zach Thomas letting him leave as well.
They tried to keep young defensive end Chris Canty too, but he left for the rival New York Giants as a free agent.
But it wasn’t all bad, as the Cowboys were able to lure Pro Bowl linebacker Keith Brooking away from Atlanta as a free agent. They also lured reliable defensive end Igor Olshansky away from San Diego to fill the void of Ellis and Canty on the line.
They also traded for veteran quarterback Jon Kitna to upgrade their insurance policy at the signal calling position.
Draft Class 2009
The Cowboys didn’t even have a pick on day one of the draft, so I’m not sure any of the 12 picks they took on day two in rounds three through seven will even count. Linebackers Jason Williams (3rd) and Brandon Williams (5th) have a chance, but the rest are likely training camp fodder and shots in the dark to make the final roster.
Offense
With all of the weapons the Cowboys had on offense last season they still finished the year ranked 13th in total yards per game (344.5) and 18th in scoring (22.6 ppg), slipping back into the middle of the pack in the NFL.
So the addition by subtraction philosophy in cutting Owens is aimed at helping quarterback Tony Romo relax and take more control of the offense. It’s also aimed at helping receiver Roy Williams get more than the 19 catches and one touchdown he had after a deadline deal brought him to Dallas last season.
With Williams, Patrick Crayton (4 TD), and Miles Austin (3 TD) teaming up with perhaps the best pass-catching tight end in the league Jason Witten (4 TD), the Cowboys fell they have enough weapons on the outside to maintain last season’s rank of 9th in passing yards per game (236.8).
The offensive line returns intact, which will be a big key because the Cowboys running must improve. Marion Barber (885 yds., 7 TD), Felix Jones (3 TD) and Tashard Choice (5.3 ave. in 92 carries) give the Cowboys plenty of styles out of the backfield as they try and improve upon the numbers from ’08 (21st – 107.7 ypg).
Defense
While the defensive roster took a majority of the hits during free agency, the Cowboys won’t be as bad off as it looks on paper.
Ellis and his eight sacks will surely be missed, but the Cowboys brought Olshansky in as a free agent to team up with youngster Marcus Spears at end, who scouts think is set for a breakout year.
With Brooking at linebacker helping Bradie James clean up tackles, and Anthony Spencer and DeMarcus Ware off the edge, the Cowboys should be able to stay in the top-10 in most defensive statistics in this year (8th in ‘08 – 294.3 ypg).
The secondary ended ’08 ranked 5th in passing yards allowed (187.7 ypg), but that’s a product of their pass rush pressure and their NFL- best 59 sacks. Second-year corner Mike Jenkins and Orlando Scandrick will have a training camp battle to start opposite Terence Newman, but Ken Hamlin and Gerald Sensabaugh are entrenched at the starting spots at safety.
Special Teams
One of those insignificant draft picks was a 5th-round flyer on kicker David Buehler of USC. He was brought in to compete with Nick Folk for the job, but Folk was 20-of-22 and a perfect 2-of-2 from 50- plus, so don’t expect a change unless Buehler kicks out of his mind in the preseason.
Punter Mat McBriar missed a lot of the ’08 season after his foot was broken on a blocked punt, but he’s supposedly back to health and has been given the job back. His 49.0 average per punt is stellar, but his 38.8 net means he’s either outkicking his coverage or not getting enough hang time.
Crayton and Austin are listed as the top punt and kickoff returner, respectively, but if either one becomes a starting wide out that role could be eliminated quickly. Keep an eye on the Cowboys during the preseason to see whom they’re grooming for the role.
2009 Schedule
Sept. 13 – at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sept. 20 – NEW YORK GIANTS
Sept. 28 – CAROLINA PANTHERS
Oct. 4 – at Denver Broncos
Oct. 11 – at Kansas City Chiefs
Oct. 18 – Bye
Oct. 25 – ATLANTA FALCONS
Nov. 1 – SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Nov. 8 – at Philadelphia Eagles
Nov. 15 – at Green Bay Packers
Nov. 22 – WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Nov. 26 – OAKLAND RAIDERS
Dec. 6 – at New York Giants
Dec.13 – SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Dec. 19 – at New Orleans Saints
Dec. 27 – at Washington Redskins
Jan. 3 – PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Betting Odds and Projections
The 2008 Dallas Cowboys weren’t just a disappointment on the field, they were also a disappointment at the window for bettors as they finished with a 7-9 against-the-spread record, including a 4-4 ATS mark at home. We’ll see if the new Cowboys Stadium helps them regain the homefield advantage they had in the old days.
With less hype and less coverage in and around Dallas these days, the Cowboys are floating as below the radar as they have ever been in the last few seasons. That is evident by their current 15-to-1 odds to win Super Bowl 44, as oddsmakers still respect the team but they are no longer considered the public favorite anymore.
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the key to the Cowboys season is the portion before their bye week. If they can get big wins over Carolina and the Giants at home, they could virtually be undefeated going into the heart of the season. They will need it because the final five games on the schedule are brutal, with three of the five on the road.
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