Atlanta Falcons – 2009 Season Preview
by Badger of Predictem.com
2008 Record – 11-5 (9-7 ATS) Lost in Wild Card Round to Arizona, 30-24
Stadium: Georgia Dome
Head Coach: Mike Smith (2nd Season – 11-6)
Current 2009 Super Bowl Odds – 20-to-1 at bodog.eu
Training Camp Site: Atlanta Falcons Training Facility, Flowery Branch, Ga.
After a 2007 season where the Atlanta Falcons lost both franchise quarterback Michael Vick and head coach Bobby Petrino to embarrassing controversies, it’s safe to say their surprising Wild Card playoff run in 2008 makes things even steven.
The Falcons drafted quarterback Matt Ryan, who produced one of the best Rookie of the Year seasons ever by a quarterback, turned over the roster and quickly transformed a 4-12 team into an 11-5 team in head coach Mike Smith’s inaugural season. They did lose in the first round of the Wild Card playoffs, but they gave Arizona their stiffest test before bowing out 30-24.
Now that the tables have turned so fast, Atlanta is talking about trying to win playoff games in 2009, instead of still trying to win back their respect.
Who’s In/Who’s Out
Atlanta made headlines in April when they acquired veteran tight end Tony Gonzales from the Kansas City Chiefs for a second-round pick in 2010.
The Falcons allowed three key veteran leaders on their defense walk away in free agency in the offseason, losing linebacker Keith Brooking, safety Lawyer Malloy and tackle Grady Jackson. The loss of Brooking, who played 11 seasons in Atlanta before he was lured away by the Dallas Cowboys, is the hardest one to swallow and will be felt in the locker room no doubt.
That is why they went out and sign veteran linebacker Mike Peterson to try and fill the void left by the loss of Brooking. Peterson played five seasons under Smith in Jacksonville and is very familiar with the scheme, which is why they feel he can move from the middle to weak-side linebacker and play along with Curtis Lofton.
Draft Class 2009
Defensive tackle Peria Jerry from Mississippi was taken with the 24th pick in the first round to play the “one-gap” position and eat up double teams. He’s obviously expected to be the starter at the position vacated when they let Jackson walk.
Safety William Moore was picked in the second round to try and be the replacement for Malloy, but that is less of a guarantee.
The rest of the Falcons 2009 Draft lacks the marquee names, but a few of them (3rd – CB Chris Owens, 5th – CB William Middleton) could catch on as role players.
Offense
Ryan was simply spectacular straight out of Boston College for the Falcons last season, completing 61.1 percent of his passes and throwing for 3,440 yards and 16 touchdowns. More importantly though, he showed poise and skill beyond his years and gave Falcons fans everywhere reason to believe again.
But let’s not forget that it was another huge offseason pickup last year that was equally as important to drafting Ryan, and that was signing Michael Turner. Turner ran for 1,699 yards and 17 touchdowns as the Falcons ground attack racked up 152.7 yards a game (2nd in NFL). Jerious Norwood averaged 5.1 yards per carry and 9.4 yards per catch as Turner’s primary backup, which has offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey looking for more ways to get the two of them on the field at the same time.
As of press time Pro Bowl wide out Roddy White is still holding out for a new contract, but it’s only a matter of time before its done. White, who had 1,382 yards and seven touchdowns in a breakout 2009 season, will no doubt benefit from Gonzales running underneath routes and vicea-versa. Harry Douglas and Michael Jenkins (15.5 ave., 3 TD) form a solid crew on passing downs for Ryan.
The offensive line could become a problem now that Jeremy Newberry retired just before training camp opened. Newberry was signed in the offseason to provide depth, but a chronic bad knee finally forced him to hang them up for good.
Defense
The Falcons defense in 2008 was solid but unspectacular, finishing the season ranked 11th in points allowed (20.3 ppg) but 24th in yards allowed (361.2 ypg). This year’s unit will be younger, especially in the secondary, which could make things hard for the Dirty Birds in ’09.
With Jerry providing a stop-gap at tackle, the Falcons hope to improve on their 25th-ranked run defense (127.9 ypg) and allow Lofton and Peterson to make tackles. John Abraham and Eric Coleman add pass rush and presence to the defensive line too.
The secondary will have a training camp battle for the corner position opposite Chris Houston, with second-year guys Chevis Jackson and Brent Grimes and veteran Von Hutchins involved in the mix. Either way the youth movement will be looking to improve on their 21st- ranked pass defense (220.4 ypg).
Special Teams
Norwood finished the year with a 25.7 yard average on kickoff returns, busting a long of 92 yards but never taking one all the way. Even so, he’s still one of the league’s biggest threats to take it to the house.
Douglas could emerge as the NFL’s top punt returners this year, since he had an 11.9 yard average and one score in 19 returns in ’08.
Jason Elam was steady and productive as the kicker, hitting 29-of-31 field goal attempts including 1-of-2 from 50-plus. Punter Michael Koenen had two punts blocked last year and finished with a 37.5 net average, so he has room for improvement in order to match the level of consistency of Elam and make the Falcons unit top-notch.
2009 Falcons Schedule
Sept. 13 – MIAMI DOLPHINS
Sept. 20 – CAROLINA PANTHERS
Sept. 27 – at New England Patriots
Oct. 4 – Bye
Oct. 11 – at San Francisco 49ers
Oct. 18 – CHICAGO BEARS
Oct. 25 – at Dallas Cowboys
Nov. 2 – at New Orleans Saints
Nov. 8 – WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Nov. 15 – at Carolina Panthers
Nov. 22 – at New York Giants
Nov. 29 – TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Dec. 6 – PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Dec. 13 – NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Dec. 20 – at New York Jets
Dec. 27 – BUFFALO BILLS
Jan. 3 – at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Odds and Projections
Normally when teams go through worst-to-first scenarios they are able to take advantage of friendly odds and post solid against-the-spread numbers for bettors, but the Falcons were barely a juice-covering 9-7 ATS in ’08. The Falcons also played under the total in 9 of their 16 games last season.
With their current listing of 20-to-1 odds to win the 2009 Super Bowl the Falcons are an attractive “middle” candidate in a typical “short- middle-long” futures betting scheme, but I just don’t think their defense will be strong enough to make it cash in. Ryan is the type of player that could be worth the chance though.
Another reason I think it will be tough on the Falcons is their schedule. The Falcons get their first two games at home, but those games are against Miami and Carolina, and are followed by a road trip to New England. Their road schedule also features two games in Giants Stadium and a trip to new Cowboys Stadium, a tough task for a young team.
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