Carolina Panthers – 2009 Season Preview
by Badger of Predictem.com
2008 Record – 12-4 (9-6-1 ATS)
NFC South Division Champions
Stadium: Bank of America Stadium
Head Coach: John Fox (7th Season – 68-52)
Current 2009-2010 Super Bowl Odds – 22-to-1 at bodog.eu
Training Camp Site: Wofford College, Spartanburg, S.C.
Going into the start of the 2008 season most of the questions surrounding the Carolina Panthers centered around quarterback Jake Delhomme, who returned to the lineup after missing most of the Panthers sub-par 7-9 season in 2007 following Tommy John surgery on his elbow.
Delhomme and the Panthers answered those questions emphatically by racing out to a 12-4 season and an NFC South Division title in ’08, but that title meant little when the Panthers were eliminated from the NFC playoffs in the Divisional round by the Arizona Cardinals, 33-13.
This year the Panthers look to contend once again in the competitive NFC South Division, but that all depends on whether or not they make it through training camp with a full roster. They’ve already lost starting defensive tackle Maake Kemoeatu for the entire season with a torn Achilles tendon, and linebackers Thomas Davis and Jon Beaston are out multiple weeks with leg injuries.
As if that wasn’t enough, last week the Panthers lost their biggest offensive weapon, receiver Steve Smith, to an injured shoulder in a collision in a non-contact drill. Smith should be ready to go by week one, but all of the lingering injuries could make the Panthers 2009 season a long and tedious one right from the start.
Who’s In/Who’s Out
The biggest news out of Carolina all winter was whether or not the Panthers would be able to keep defensive end Julius Peppers. First they designated him as a franchise player to cover the butts, then in June the resigned him to just the one-year tender offer, so he’ll be back with the Panthers for this season but who knows if he’ll be a distraction or not.
They also resigned tackle Jordan Gross early in February to keep a main cog of their offensive line in a Panthers jersey for six more years.
The also cut starting corner Ken Lucas and allowed him to go back to Seattle after a few unproductive years with the Panthers. They also let their punt and kick returner Mark Jones walk to Tennessee in free agency.
But the rest of the winter was fairly quiet. They lost a few fringe players and backups (D.J. Hackett, Nick Goings, Frank Omiyale, Darwin Walker), but none of them should be considered a big loss.
Draft Class 2009
Carolina and owner Jerry Richardson gave up their first round pick in 2009 to move up and take both running back Jonathan Stewart and tackle Jeff Otah in the first round of the 2008 draft, so this year’s class lacks a big name.
They picked a good pass-rushing end in Everette Brown in the second round, and a good 3-technique tackle/end in Corvey Irvin in the third round, but that might be about all they get out of this year’s class (7 picks total).
Offense
Delhomme threw for 3,288 yards and 15 touchdowns last year with his repaired elbow, but his accuracy (59.4), interceptions (12) and QB rating (84.7) were all middle of the pack and need to be better for the Panthers to make a legit run at the 2009-2010 Super Bowl.
Delhomme was without Smith for four games last year while he was suspended, and he’ll have to work with some new receivers again in training camp this year to improve on their 19th-ranked pass offense (197.4 ypg). Mushin Muhammad (923 yds., 5 TD) is a nice complement to Smith, but after him the Panthers receiving crew drops off significantly. Tight end Jeff King (21 rec., 1 TD) and second-year receiver Dwayne Jarrett (10 rec.) need to increase their production in order to stop defenses from stacking the box against the run.
But it’s no secret that the Panthers offense is geared around the strong two-headed running attack of DeAngelo Williams and Stewart. Williams (1,515 yds.) became the top running back in fantasy circles last year scoring 18 touchdowns in ’08. Stewart added 836 yards and 10 TDs as the Panthers running game ended 3rd in the league at 152.3 yards per game.
The offensive line that busted open all of the holes for Williams and Stewart is back intact, anchored by Gross and Otah at tackle.
Defense
The defense will be under the direction of new coordinator Ron Meeks, and Meeks will have his work cut out for him early as he tries to patch up the holes caused by all of the aforementioned injuries.
Second-year guy Nick Hayden is pegged to fill Kemoeatu’s spot at tackle, but he spent most of last year on the practice squad, so it will likely be a big drop off and could make the run defense slip a little from last year’s 20th-ranked run defense (19.5 ypg).
Linebacker Dan Conner, who missed most of last year with a torn ACL, will fill in for Beaston in the middle while he recovers. But if Beaston and Davis are on-again, off-again all season long the Panthers might not have enough depth at linebacker to stay afloat.
Richard Marshall will get the first shot at replacing Lucas at corner opposite the other starter, Chris Gamble. Chris Harris and Charles Godfrey are the safeties that must improve their game’s as well if the Panthers expect to improve on the 16th-ranked pass defense from ’08 (211.7 ypg).
Special Teams
The Panthers have a formidable kicking game with kicker John Kasay and punter Jason Baker back again in 2009.
Kasay was 28-of-31 on field goal attempts in ’08, but he did suffer a little drop off when he was just 1-of-3 from 50+ last year. Baker had a nice 44.1 yard average and an okay 37.4 yard net, but he had three punts blocked in ’08 and will have to eliminate that from the Panthers kicking game in the upcoming season.
Jones will be replaced by Ryne Robinson in the return game, who held the role as the returner in 2007 before missing most of last year with a bum knee.
2009 Carolina Panthers Schedule
Sept. 13 – PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Sept. 20 – at Atlanta Falcons
Sept. 28 – at Dallas Cowboys
Oct. 4 – Bye
Oct. 11 – WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Oct. 18 – at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Oct. 25 – BUFFALO BILLS
Nov. 1 – at Arizona Cardinals
Nov. 8 – at New Orleans Saints
Nov. 15 – ATLANTA FALCONS
Nov. 19 – MIAMI DOLPHINS
Nov. 29 – at New York Jets
Dec. 6 – TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Dec. 13 – at New England Patriots
Dec. 20 – MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Dec. 27 – at New York Giants
Jan. 3 – NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Betting Odds and Projections
The Carolina Panthers were a solid 9-6-1 against the spread in 2008, which made bettors a little coin but not enough to make anyone continue to wager on them week in and week out religiously. Their over/under record of 8-8 was a wash in ’08 as well.
Despite finishing at 12-4 and winning the NFC South last year, oddsmakers must think the Panthers are destined to drop off in 2009 because they are listed at 22-to-1 odds to win the 2009-2010 Super Bowl. Those odds are just the sixth lowest of all of the NFC teams, and the same as their South rival New Orleans Saints, so they can still play the disrespect card in ’09 if they would like. That is, IF they can stop anybody on defense and that is a big IF. Look for some high scoring games this year.
Their schedule is tough right out of the gate, hosting the Philadelphia Eagles in the opener before two road hard road games at Atlanta and Dallas before a week-four bye. If their defense is not healthy enough coming out of camp, an 0-3 start is a distinct possibility. They also face four big games to close out the season, including road games at New England and at the New York Giants, which will make the prospect of chasing a final playoff spot a hard proposition.
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