Minnesota Vikings – 2009 Season Preview
by Badger of Predictem.com
2008 Record – 10-6 (6-10 ATS) NFC North Division Champions
Stadium: Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome
Head Coach: Brad Childress (4th Season – 24-24)
Current 2009 Super Bowl Odds – 12-to-1
Training Camp Site: Minnesota State University, Mankato, Minn.
Training Camp Opens: July 31st
The Minnesota Vikings finally got a taste of an NFC North title and a playoff game in a breakthrough 2009 season, but a one-and-done in the wild card round to the Philadelphia Eagles (lost 26-14) surely made that taste bittersweet.
As of press time the Vikings still haven’t signed Brett Favre yet, but by the time you’re reading this he could finally have ended the drama-queen act. The million-dollar question for the Vikings and their fans is whether an aging Favre is worth blowing up a team that is sitting on the doorstep of an NFL Super Bowl run this season regardless of whether or not he plays.
Who’s In/Who’s Out
Did I mention that Brett Favre might un-retire, again, and play for the Vikings. Oh, you heard? Sorry.
The problem is the Vikings traded for a quarterback already this offseason, but apparently Sage Rosenfels isn’t the answer they were looking for at the position anymore despite tossing a 4th-round pick to Houston to get him in purple. They ditched on Tarvaris Jackson early last season and still have a solid third-stinger with Jon David Booty, so the Vikings have nothing but a heap of quarterbacks but no for-sure starter.
Minnesota parted ways with former Pro Bowl center Matt Birk in the offseason, as the longtime Viking signed with Baltimore as a free agent. The Vikings prepared themselves for the exit though, as last year’s 6th-round pick John Sullivan from Notre Dame was groomed for the starting job anyway.
The Vikings also allowed safety Darren Sharper to walk away as a free agent, but they did resign corner Cedric Griffin and nickel-back Benny Sapp to team with last year’s big free agent pickup safety Madieu Williams in the secondary, so they won’t miss the aging and step-slower Sharper much at all.
Draft Class 2009
The Vikings added an instant weapon to their arsenal when they took Florida Gator speedster Percy Harvin in the first-round. Harvin should and will contribute in a bunch of positions, including some gimmick formations like a “wildcat” set with Adrian Peterson standing behind him?
The Vikings are also hoping to catch lightening in a bottle by having second-round pick Phil Loadholt assume a starting role at right tackle, but he’s still a rookie and has yet to prove himself better than incumbent Ryan Cook.
The three picks the Vikings used to finish out their ’09 Draft added defensive depth, as 3rd-round CB Asher Allen, 5th-round LB Jasper Brinkley and 7th-round FS Jamarca Sanford all have a decent shot at making the team as backups.
Offense
The Vikings finished ’08 ranked 12th in the NFL in scoring with a 23.7 points per game average, but just 25th in passing yards per game (184.8), hence the no stone left unturned approach to finding a quarterback in the offseason.
Finding a passing game surely will help Peterson out, as he followed up his 1,341 yard-12TD rookie season with a 1,760-yard, 10-TD sophomore campaign. Harvin will likely get some of back-up Chester Taylor’s carries, but those three form fantasy-league-like depth in the backfield that was already 5th in the league at 146.1 ypg before Harvin.
Bernard Berrian (7 TD), Sidney Rice (4) and tight end Visanthe Shiancoe (7) all should benefit as well from Harvin’s addition to the offense, with more space to go around for everyone.
Offense certainly is not a problem for the Vikings, but the big if still boils down to who is standing behind center calling signals. It’s July and the Vikings are still waiting for Favre, and the questions and distractions might make it hard to gel in such a short time frame even with Favre’s familiarity with Childress and his scheme.
Defense
The only lingering questions about the Vikings defense going into the season is whether or not defensive tackles Pat Williams and Kevin Williams will continue to win their legal battle against the NFL and avoid their 4-game suspensions. It’s been eight months so far, so there’s no doubt their attorneys will continue to delay it until it doesn’t matter.
Those two anchor the league’s top-ranked run defense, allowing only 76.9 yards a game. But overall the Vikings were 13th in points allowed (20.8) and 6th in yards allowed per game (292.4), so they felt no major need for improvement via free agency or trade.
The secondary should improve (allowed 215.6 – 18th) with another season with Jared Allen at pass-rush end. Allen had 14.5 sacks and two safeties last season and continues to be a game-changer off the edge.
Special Teams
Kicker Ryan Longwell (29-of-34, 6-of-6 from 50+) and punter Chris Kluwe (47.6 ave, 35.0 net) form one of the leagues best kicking games if not the best.
Harvin has done some returning of punts and kicks in Florida and could likely make an impact here as well.
2009 Schedule
Sept. 13 – at Cleveland Browns
Sept. 20 – at Detroit Lions
Sept. 27 – SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Oct. 5 – GREEN BAY PACKERS
Oct. 11 – at St. Louis Rams
Oct. 18 – BALTIMORE RAVENS
Oct. 25 – at Pittsburgh Steelers
Nov. 1 – at Green Bay Packers
Nov. 8 – Bye
Nov. 15 – DETROIT LIONS
Nov. 22 – SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Nov. 29 – CHICAGO BEARS
Dec. 6 – at Arizona Cardinals
Dec. 13 – CINCINNATI BENGALS
Dec. 20 – at Carolina Panthers
Dec. 28 – at Chicago Bears
Jan. 3 – NEW YORK GIANTS
Betting Odds and Projections
With a 6-10 against the spread record the Vikings were one of thee worst teams to bet on in ’08. Only the Rams (6-10), Broncos (4-11-1) and Jaguars (4-12) had worse ATS numbers last season, so Minnesota didn’t do bettors any favors at the window. Even their over/under record of 9-7 reflects the up-and-down ride the Vikings were at the window last year.
But last year is last year, right?
Even with QB questions, oddsmakers in Las Vegas recognize a solid team when they see one, which is why the Vikings are currently listed at 12-to-1 odds to win the Super Bowl. Those are solid odds and worthy of a “middle” pick in any bettor’s futures card, but be prepared for those numbers to change once the Favre drama finally hits town.
The Vikings schedule features a friendly three-game homestand starting right after a bye week on November 15th. That’s a month’s worth a home-cooking, against a friendly Detroit-Seattle-Chicago schedule, surely a rarity in the NFL that they will need to capitalize on to be in the hunt for a division title. For the second straight year they end the regular season against the New York Giants, which could be for home-field advantage if things go right.
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