Green Bay Packers (11-5 SU, 11-4-1 ATS) vs. Arizona Cardinals (10-6
SU, 9-7 ATS), NFC Wild Card Game, 4:40 p.m. EST, Sunday, January 10, 2010, University of
Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Ariz., TV: FOX
by Badger of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Packers +2.5/Cardinals -2.5
Over/Under: 48
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For the third time this season the Green Bay Packers will try and slip out of University of Phoenix Stadium with a win, but this time the Arizona Cardinals are expected to put up the fight of their lives when the two NFC teams clash in a Wild-Card round playoff game Sunday in Glendale.
Green Bay has already won twice in the Cardinals home stadium this season, a 44-37 victory in a meaningless preseason game back in August, and a 33-7 thrashing last Sunday in the final regular season game of the year. Whether or not the Packers victory last weekend proves to be meaningless is yet to be determined.
With nothing to play for except their good juju and to keep “uncle” momentum on their sideline, the Packers and their head coach Mike McCarthey came into last week’s game against the Cards with the pedal to the floor. Once again the Pack ran out to a big 26-0 halftime lead (held a 38-10 halftime lead of preseason game) and flipped it in cruise control to win the seventh of their last eight games of the season, with the only loss being a 1-point, last-second loss at Pittsburgh in week 15.
Meanwhile, the Cards and head coach Ken Whisenhunt went with the exact opposite approach last Sunday. With most of the front-line starters out by the third quarter, the Cards clearly came out with a vanilla game plan (Kurt Warner only six passes) with nothing to play for and just enough energy to not hurt their chance this week.
Unfortunately it may have hurt, because three important starters in WR Anquan Boldin (ankle), CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (knee) and DE Calais Campbell (broken thumb) all left the game with injuries that will put their effectiveness this week in doubt.
Oddsmakers in Las Vegas seem to agree, as they listed the Cardinals as just 2.5-point favorites at home when the opening point spread was released late on Sunday. That number is only going down, as a few offshore sportsbooks have already lowered the number down to Cards -2, and there’s one offshore book already down to -1 (Legends).
The over/under total opened at 48 and has already dropped as well, with a few 47.5’s listed among the large majority of 47’s on most of the boards on the Web.
Offensively we all know what we’re going to get with the Packers.
For the second straight year the Packers offense features a quarterback (Aaron Rodgers) that has thrown for over 4,000 yards, a running back with over 1,000 yards rushing (Ryan Grant) and two receivers with over 1,000 yards each (Donald Driver and Greg Jennings). The Packers had major offensive line issues earlier this season, but with the midseason addition of right tackle Mark Tauscher and the return to health of left tackle Chad Clifton, the Packers have only given up seven sacks the last seven games of the season.
The Cardinals offense may have peaked a few weeks early in their 30-17 victory over the Vikings on Sunday Night Football back on December 6th. Since rolling up nearly 400 yards of total offense in the win over the Vikings, the Cards have laid two huge duds (at San Francisco and last week vs. Green Bay) and two good efforts against questionable defenses (at Detroit and St. Louis), so nobody is exactly sure which Arizona team will show up on Sunday.
If the Cards can flip the switch and turn it on, then there’s nothing to worry about for Cards fans. If they can’t, and if Boldin isn’t 100 percent with his bum ankle on Sunday, the Cards may end up paying for putting their season in cruise control early.
But with all of the flash and dash both offenses bring to the table on Sunday, there’s no doubt the difference in the game will be on defense.
The Cards must find a way to stop the Packers first team offense, because they haven’t been able to do it all in the two previous games, meaningless or not. In two games the Packers offense has over 750 yards of total offense and Rodgers has thrown for nearly 500 yards and four touchdowns, so let’s just say that confidence is not something the Packers will be lacking on Sunday.
And you can guarantee the Packers will run right at defensive end Campbell and test his broken thumb (will be playing with a cast) and throw right at Rodgers-Cromartie to test his knee and see if they truly are healthy and ready to play at a playoff level come Sunday.
On the other side, the Packers defense has morphed into one of the game’s top units this season under coordinator Dom Capers and his 3-4 scheme. The defense turned up its game down the stretch, allowing just 15.6 points per game in the second half of the season, including stellar games against playoff teams like Dallas (7 points), Baltimore (14) and last week against the Cards (7).
The Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against Arizona, so that betting trend adds to the Packers confidence out in the desert this Wild-Card weekend. The Packers are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven playoff games, but with a handful of players still around since the last time the Packers played in the playoffs that stat means less.
And let’s not forget the Cardinals and their perfect 4-0 ATS run in the playoff last season. In fact, the Cards are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games in January, so they just might be able to flip the switch like they plan too come Sunday.
The over is 4-1 in Arizona’s last five playoff games, but just 2-5 in the Cards last seven games at home in University of Phoenix Stadium as the favorite.
Badger’s Pick: Don’t think for a second that last week means nothing. The Packers offense is due to stumble soon, but they are in perfect sync right now and playing with so much confidence right now that they should continue to roll up huge numbers. The Cards and Warner will get back on track too. Take the over of 48.
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