San Francisco 49ers (1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS) vs. Buffalo Bills (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS)
NFL Week 6
Date/Time: Sunday, October 16, 2016 at 1:00 PM EST
Where: New Era Field, Buffalo, NY
by Keith, Expert Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: SF +7.5/BUF -7.5
Over/Under Total: 45.5
On the Week Six docket, a cross-conference clash between the AFC’s Buffalo Bills and the NFC West’s San Francisco 49ers at New Era Field in Buffalo, New York with a 1:00 PM scheduled kick-off. The game is set to be aired on CBS with regional coverage. The Bills enter off yet another win on the road against fellow NFC West cohort Los Angeles. The Bills have had their way this division and they have been on fire as of late. San Francisco enters on yet another loss as their abysmal 2016-17 efforts commence.
In the early going, we have seen a heavy public lean on the Bills who continue to win. The Bills are now sporting more than a touchdown and enter uncharted waters as a favorite with substantial points to cover. The 49ers have been significant pooches all season long and yet they have shown to have little equity and value as they are trounced week in and week out.
The Cardinals offense has more or less been electric. The Cardinals are averaging over 30 points per game and Carson Palmer has already accumulated nearly 600 yards through the air in 2 games. The traditional weapons of the Arizona attack are also proliferating their usual productive numbers. Most notably Larry Fitzgerald, who many analysts have since written off as past their peak. Arizona features a highly touted running back in David Johnson but he has yet to live up to the potential that many forecasted him with. Additionally, the Cardinals feature one of the better defensive backs in all of the NFL in their secondary, Patrick Petersen. Petersen is not just a cornerback that harasses wide receivers, he is a return threat as well. An unwritten narrative that must be taken in to consideration is the match-up is not the clash of quarterbacks but how effectively each team’s sack masters performs. Both Markus Golden of Arizona and Jerry Hughes of Buffalo each own 2.0 sacks on the season. The question remains which player will be more of a disruptive force and ultimately inhibit the play of the opposing team quarterback.
It’s been a tale of two season for the Buffalo Bills, who continue to roll on their three-game winning streak. Just three weeks ago, the Buffalo Bills look destined for the basement of the AFC East after they got off to a 0-2 start where their offense exploits looked non-existent. Buffalo couldn’t find the end zone in Week One, now they seemingly can’t stay out as their offense has finally began to pick up steam and score points at will against some premiere defenses. The Bills ugly hideous loss against the New York Jets is a distant memory now. The Bills have knocked off Arizona, New England and now Los Angeles in consecutive weeks and they seem to get better each week. The stock of the Bills is through the ceiling. The Bills have also won their last two on the road on different sides of the country and they have clawed their way back in to the playoff picture with their recent dominance against whoever they face. With this situation in mind, Buffalo is seeing a heavy dose of action in the early stages of this market as the 49ers are one of the weaker opponents the Bills will face perhaps all season. The Bills have improved to a record of 3-2, also covering in their last three as underdogs as well. p>
When a team gets hot they are more likely to spot more points to the underdog and heavy action on these favorites can push the line to an exorbitant price when comparing it to the open. Buffalo takers may find themselves in this position as the Bills’ stock is certainly much higher than San Francisco. The combination of San Francisco’s poor play and the Bills resurgence is the driving price in this market. The bottom line is this when expectations are high with one team, there is often value in going contrarian as the amount to take back is often more than required. Buffalo’s offense is still prone to stalling at any given point and we will mitigate the risk in backing Buffalo whose price may have hit a ceiling.
KEITH’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: SAN FRANCISCO +7.5
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