San Francisco 49ers (2-6) +10, 39.5 O/U at Seattle Seahawks (4-4) -10, 39.5 O/U Quest Field, 8:30 PM Eastern, Monday
by Badger of Predictem.com
This game certainly isn’t what the Monday Night Football and NFL bigwigs thought it would be before the season. West Coast fans will like the matchup of these two NFC West foes, but only bettors on the East Coast will be watching this one late into the night.
Seattle sits atop the weak NFC West at 4-4, and is coming off of a disappointing 33-30 loss to the surprising Cleveland Browns. The Seahawks have only one victory since their first win verses the 49ers, a ho-hum 33-6 win over the winless Rams, making them 1-3 SU the last four weeks.
To say that the San Francisco 49ers are reeling would be a huge understatement. After winning their first two games of the season, they have now lost six in a row. One of those six losses was a 23-3 yawner at home against these same Seahawks in week 4. Last week’s 20-16 loss came against lowly Atlanta, another lackluster 2-6 team.
Oddsmakers have given the Seahawks the love, making them an early 10-point favorite at home Monday night, with a 39.5 total for an over/under bet.
Whether or not Seattle’s offense deserves to be a double-digit favorite is up for debate. The Seahawks are averaging a solid 20.9 points per game and a respectable 338.1 yards per game (13th overall). Running back Shaun Alexander is listed as probable on the injury list, so that may help to improve what has been an underachieving ground game all season.
The double-digit spread is more likely a product of the 49ers offense, or severe lack of offense. San Francisco is dead last in the league in yardage per game (224.2) and passing yardage (132.8), and second to last by averaging just 13 points a game. Heck, in the 49ers two wins they didn’t exactly light up the scoreboard (won 20-17 over Arizona; 17-16 over St. Louis).
The 49ers did welcome back starting quarterback Alex Smith last week, but running back Frank Gore is listed as questionable with his tender ankle, so it would be hard to expect too much improvement over their recent problems.
Both teams sport a middle-of-the-pack defense, allowing almost exactly the same yardage and points as what the other team averages on offense (Seattle allows 17 pts./SF scores 13; SF allows 23 pts./Seattle scores 21). Call it a wash, call it mediocrity, call it whatever … but both teams are too inconsistent to get a good reading on them. Seattle does have a good pass rush (23 sacks), although defensive end Patrick Kearney is banged up and playing at less then 100 percent.
Neither team has been worth betting on really, as the Seahawks are just 3-5 ATS this season (2-2 at home) while San Francisco is worse at 2-6 ATS (1-3 on the road). Earlier this season when the Seahawks were 9-point favorites they covered the number, but that was verses the Rams. The 49ers have already been a 9.5-point dog (at NY Giants) and 10-point dog (at Pittsburgh) this season, and failed to cover in either game.
Seattle has been back-n-forth on the over/under, hitting at a 3-5 clip ATS. San Francisco is also 3-5 against the total, with the over covering in back-to-back weeks before finishing under last week against Atlanta.
Badger's Pick: While San Fran has bombed out as huge underdogs twice already this season, those losses were to teams with much more prolific offenses than Seattle. We like the Niners here plus the ten.
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