Arizona Cardinals vs. Carolina Panthers Preview and Pick

Arizona Cardinals (10-7) +10, 48 O/U at Carolina Panthers (12-4) -10, 48 O/U, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, N.C., 8:15 PM Eastern, Saturday, FOX
by Badger of Predictem.com

After winning their first home playoff game since the 1940s the Arizona Cardinals are rewarded with a long flight back to the dreaded East Coast to take on the well-rested Carolina Panthers in an NFL Divisional Round playoff game Saturday at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte.

Arizona took a 30-17 lead early in the fourth quarter and hung on for a 30-24 victory over the Atlanta Falcons in the Wildcard Round last weekend. Now they get the chance to enact revenge against the Panthers, who beat them 27-23 back on October 26th on the same field in Charlotte. However, the Cards are 0-5 when playing on the East Coast this season, so they’ll need to get past some mental hang-ups as well as the power running attack of the Panthers.

The last time Carolina took the field they nearly gave away the game and their playoff spot as well to their NFC South rival New Orleans Saints. The Panthers nearly coughed up a 30-10 lead, but kicker John Kasay drilled a 42-yard field goal with one second left on the clock to win the game 33-31 and not only put Carolina in the playoffs, but give them a week-one bye as well.

The Oddsmaker Sportsbook opened the game with Carolina as 9.5- point home favorites, and early action has been mostly on the Panthers causing the number to go up to 10-points at just about every sportsbook on the planet. There are just a few exceptions, as SportsBetting.com still lists the Panthers as 9.5-point favorites, while 5Dimes.com has moved Carolina all the way up to 11-point favorites already.

The over/under total opened at 48 and has only gone up the hook to 48.5 at most offshore sportsbooks. The moneyline lists the Panthers as -450 favorites, with the Cardinals catching +350 as underdogs.

Offensively there’s no secret to what each team is hoping to accomplish. The Panthers are going to pound the ball on the ground, while the Cardinals are going to throw it around to all of their playmakers on the outside.

Carolina won eight of their last 10 games played because of the breakout running of DeAngelo Williams. Williams had 178 yards in the season finale versus the Saints, had 108 yards and four touchdowns in the week 16 showdown versus the New York Giants, and had 186 yards and two scores in a week 14 triumph over Tampa Bay. He is the main reason the Panthers finished 3rd in the NFL in rushing yards per game with a 152.2 average. When he wears down, the Panthers bring in rookie Jonathan Stewart (835 yds., 4.6 ypc, 10 TD) and the team barely misses a beat.

The Cardinals on the other hand like to ride the arm of veteran quarterback Kurt Warner. Warner threw for nearly 5,000 yards this season, completed 66 percent of his passes and had 32 touchdowns. With Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston as receivers, it’s no wonder the Cards like to spread it out and throw it around.

True to form, in the October 26th meeting between these two the Cards and Warner threw for 381 yards and 2 touchdowns on 49 attempts, while the Panthers and Williams ran for 113 yards and score on 29 rushing attempts. The game-changing play in the game however was a 65-yard touchdown pass on a tightrope run down the sideline by Carolina’s Steve Smith.

Defensively there’s really not much difference between these two squads, as the Cardinals are actually 18th overall (331.5 ypg allowed) while the Panthers are 19th (332.1 ypg). The two facets of the game that will surely be tested by the opponent, the Cards have the 16th-ranked run defense (110.2 ypg), while the Panthers have the 16th-ranked pass defense (212.6 ypg).

Last week the Cardinals defense held a similar power-running attack in the Falcons to just 60 yards (250 total yards) on the ground. The same can’t be said for the Panthers though, as the Saints Drew Brees carved their pass defense up to the tune of 386 yards and four scores.

If your looking for betting trends, the underdog is a solid 5-2 ATS in the head-to-head series between these teams. The road team is also 5-2 ATS, and even though the Cards lost the game last time out, they did cover the spread as Carolina was favored by 5-points in the first meeting.

Arizona’s cover last time could be considered a fluke though, as the Cards are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as the road underdog, with the one being the Carolina game. However, Arizona is a strong 6-0 ATS in their last six games played on Saturday, including the first round win over Atlanta.

Carolina seems to kick it up a notch for bettors in the playoffs, as they are 6-1 ATS in the last seven playoff games. They are also strong in Bank of America Stadium, with an 8-2-1 ATS record in their last 11 games at home.

The over/under trends are hard to read. Arizona is 12-5 versus the total this season, and the over is 7-2 in Carolina’s last nine playoff games and 6-1 in their last seven overall, so the over looks like an attractive bet. But it’s the under that is 11-4 in Carolina’s last 15 home games and it’s also 15-7 in the Panthers last 22 games as a home favorite.

Badger’s Pick: Early action on this game is heavy on Arizona (69% against the spread) and the over (93%), which is ironic because I’m leaning in the opposite direction on both fronts. Arizona barely held on to beat the Falcons at home, and we all know how well they play traveling to the East a couple of time zones. Carolina will continue to pound the ball and it will wear the Cards out late in the final quarter for a backdoor cover. Take Carolina minus 10 and the under of 48.

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