San Francisco 49ers (10-2 SU, 10-1-1 ATS) vs. Arizona Cardinals (5-7 SU, 7-5 ATS), 4:05 p.m. EST, NFL Week 14, Sunday, December 11, 2011, U of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Arizona, TV: Fox
by Scotty L, NFL Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: SF -3.5/AZ +3.5
Over/Under Total: 40
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The playoff-bound San Francisco 49ers cross state lines to take on the streaking Arizona Cardinals on Sunday afternoon. This should be a very good game between a pair of squads that are playing well. The Niners took their lumps in a loss to Baltimore a few weeks ago, but rebounded with 26-0 win against the Rams, once again showing why their defense is number-one in points allowed. The Cardinals, meanwhile, didn’t exactly have a Sunday to sneeze at--as they beat the Cowboys in overtime.
4 out of 5 wins and 5 out of 6 covers has bettors swooning, as the Cardinals have become the second-half darkhorse pick of choice. They have won 3 of their last 4 games straight-up as underdogs. The only exception, however, is a bad sign. On November 20, they lost to the 49ers at Candlestick, managing only a measly 4th-quarter garbage-time touchdown in a 23-7 loss. But with 2 straight wins, QB Kevin Kolb back in the fold, and now at home, the Cardinals could be in a better spot.
Kolb’s spirits were certainly buoyed in the Cardinals’ overtime home win against Dallas on Sunday, as he connected with LaRod Stephens-Howling for a 52-yard touchdown strike to seal the deal. He kept the Cardinals machine rolling and should continue to enjoy the fruits of a blossoming receiving crew and a big season from RB Beanie Wells. Kolb didn’t play in the 49ers game a few weeks ago, as he was out with a bad toe. After his return on Sunday, maybe he will be able to get more business done for the Cardinals in this matchup.
The 49ers clinched their first playoff appearance since the 2002-2003 season on Sunday. The fact they did it after only 12 games speaks volumes. It’s been a great season for San Francisco, as they have the number-one defense in points allowed, giving up a little more than 13 per game. They have only failed to cover the spread once this entire season. With some powerful teams in the NFC, one might question their ability to make a deep playoff run. But there is no disputing the resurrection of one of the league’s historically great teams.
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Rightfully, a lot of credit has gone to a great San Francisco defense. Perhaps that has taken some widespread attention off the growth of quarterback Alex Smith, who has bloomed into a excellent field general. With an offense that isn’t necessarily becoming of a 10-2 team, Smith needs to be efficient. With 15 touchdowns and only 5 picks, he has been excellent. Even with RB Frank Gore struggling a bit, he has been resourceful using what is at his disposal.
It’s just that Arizona is not the typical 5-7 team. They need to be taken seriously and are now at home with a better overall disposition than what they had a few weeks ago in San Francisco. RB Beanie Wells and WR Larry Fitzgerald are both nearing 1000 yards. Their defense is playing more confidently. Dangerous rookie Patrick Peterson looms as a constant threat on runbacks. But let’s face it, if you go off of their game in San Francisco, there is not a lot to like about the Cardinals who basically got nowhere with the 49ers.
Scotty L’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Last time, the 49ers beat the Cardinals by 16 in game that wasn’t as close as the score indicated. Now the Cardinals are being expected to better that performance by 12.5 points against a defense that stuffed them last time. All it would take is a couple big plays on defense and maybe an extra touchdown along the way. At home, that doesn’t seem that out of the question.
Then again, expecting a letdown from the 49ers has been costly for anyone playing that angle this year. Playoff implications run deep at the top of the NFC. No team can think it’s OK to cruise to the finish. And for a team that hasn’t seen the postseason for so long, don’t expect the 49ers to be anything but hungry in games like this. The Cardinals will be tough, but look for the Niners offense to grind their way to enough points to lock up the win and cover. Take the San Francisco 49ers minus 3.5 points.
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