Atlanta Falcons (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) vs. Dallas Cowboys (3-2 SU, 2-3
ATS), 4:15 p.m. EST, Sunday, October 25, 2009, Cowboys Stadium,
Arlington, Texas, TV: FOX
by Badger of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Falcons +4/Cowboys -4
Over/Under: 47
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Two of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL will meet for the first time between the stripes when Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons travel to play Tony Romo and the Dallas Cowboys in a key NFC clash Sunday afternoon in Cowboys Stadium.
The Falcons will try and maintain their position in the NFC playoff picture, as their 4-1 record currently has them sitting in second place in the NFC South. Last week Atlanta won a nail-biter on Sunday Night Football against the Chicago Bears, 21-14, thanks in part to some clutch goal line defense and a little bit of self-destruction by the Bears who went 1-for-4 in the red zone.
Dallas had a bye last week to try and fix some of their issues, including how they nearly lost to Kansas City on the road the week before. Dallas eventually beat the Chiefs 26-20, but it took overtime and a breakout 10-catch, 250-yard, two-touchdown performance from receiver Miles Austin to make it happen, including the game-winning 60 yard score in OT.
The point spread for the game opened with Dallas favored by 3 points at home, and despite Atlanta’s 4-1 record and solid play on Sunday night, the game has moved up the hook to 3.5 or even 4 at a few offshore sportsbooks after the early wagering came in on the ‘Boys.
The over/under total opened at 47 and has stood firm through the early steam at the window with little to no line movement, although there are a few 47.5’s listed if you look hard enough for the hook.
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The over/under total for this game is the highest number out of all of the games this week in the NFL because it features two of the most well balanced offenses in the league.
The Cowboys have given Romo full control of the team and he has responded by leading them to the 2nd-ranked offense in the league (420.4 ypg). And it’s not just Romo throwing the ball either since the Cowboys running game is currently 3rd in the league with a 161 yards per game average.
Marion Barber is the Cowboys main runner, but injuries to him and backup Felix Jones at various times during the season so far have made them rely upon their third-string back Tashard Choice just a much as the other two. This game will be the first one all season where all three backs will be available and healthy.
Atlanta and Ryan are also an efficient crew on offense, even though their overall numbers don’t tell the entire story. The Falcons are 18th in yards (327.8 ypg), and they have struggled to get the running game going in the early season (98.6 ypg – 24th), but they make up for it with a quick-strike capability that produces points (24.6 ppg – 10th).
But while the focus of this game will probably be on the two young quarterbacks, it’s actually the defensive side of the ball that will make the difference in this game. As in, one of the defensive units will have to step up and play better than they have been so far this season.
A once proud and dominating unit, the Dallas defense has been gouged and exposed numerous times in their first five games. They rank in the bottom half of the league in just about every category, with the lone exception being points allowed (19.6 ppg – 13th). But when you factor in the fact that they’ve faced Tampa Bay and Kansas City, two of the league’s weaker offenses, the low scoring total isn’t as impressive.
Atlanta’s defense is nearly identical to the Cowboys. They give up a ton of yards (359.2 ypg – 23rd) and are not particularly strong against the run or the pass, but they do a great job of defending the red zone. They proved that on Sunday, forcing the Bears to fumble once at the 1 yard-line and also forcing the Bears to kick three field goals after failing to punch it in the first three downs. Overall, their 15.4 points allowed per game ranks 4th in the league, so it’s certainly the key to their success so far.
It’s been three years since these teams played head-to-head, with Dallas winning the game 38-28 thanks to two touchdowns from Barber and two from some clown named Terrell Owens. Oh yeah, the QB for the Falcons back then was Michael Vick too.
For the record, the Cowboys hold a 5-3 SU record against the Falcons dating back to 1992. Their ATS record is an even 4-4 in those games, but the Cowboys did cover the point spread in the last meeting as 3.5- point favorites. The over/under record is also an even 4-4 in those eight games, so solid betting trends are hard to find in this game.
The Cowboys do hold a 4-1 ATS record in their last five games following a bye week.
Badger’s Pick: Just too much offense in this game not to go over the total, in my opinion. But I also think the Cowboys are not 4-points better than the Falcons at this point of the season, bye week or not. So take your shot at either or those two wagers, but I’m taking Atlanta plus the 4-points.
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