Atlanta Falcons (7-5 SU, 4-6-2 ATS) at Carolina Panthers (4-8 SU, 7-4-1 ATS)
Sunday December 11th, 2011. 1:00PM EST. NFL Football Week 14
Bank of America Stadium Charlotte, N.C.
By Jay Horne, NFL Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Atl -2.5/Car +2.5
Over/Under Total: 48.5
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NFC South rivals collide this Sunday when the Carolina Panthers welcome the Atlanta Falcons into Bank of America Stadium. The visiting Falcons will enter this Sunday following a 17-10 loss to the Texans last week in a game that had big importance towards Atlanta's postseason possibilities. The Falcons entered as slight favorites over the injury ridden Texans but failed to capitalize while falling to the 7-5 mark on the season. Now the Falcons will have to take the road and battle a surging Panthers team as they try to stay alive in the playoff picture.
The Panthers will enter their home stand against the Falcons having won 2 straight games including a convincing 38-19 win over Tampa Bay last week. The Panthers may have scored 2 straight wins over mediocre competition, but they have been playing very well at the same time. The Panthers defense is playing better and of course the offense has continued to produce behind QB Cam Newton. Newton has completed 60.8% passing on the year with 13 touchdowns and 14 picks on the year. Despite the interceptions, Newton has racked up a ton of yards this season and made a ton of big plays with his feet as well.
Newton has posted 3,297 yards through the air and tied the NFL record last week with his 13th touchdown on the ground which is the most of any NFL quarterback in a single season in league history. To think that Newton is just a rookie, the Panthers future looks very bright with #1 behind center. Newton's biggest target in the passing game has been the resurgent threat of WR Steve Smith. Smith has caught 61 passes for 1,092 yards and 5 touchdowns on the year which ranks 2nd among all receivers in terms of receiving yards.
While Smith is enough for any defense to keep track of, young wide out Brandon LaFell is also emerging into a legitimate threat in the passing game as well. LaFell's numbers have gone up in the last two games and he could become a bigger impact if defenses continue to give over the top help against Smith. All together the Panthers passing attack along with Newton's ability to make plays with his feet, give the Panthers consistent success in moving the football. The big objective every week for Carolina is cashing in that ball movement into touchdowns.
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The good news for Atlanta is that the Panthers have struggled to convert yards into points against some of the better defenses they faced. The Falcons defense should definitely fall into that category this week having held opponents to just 329 yards per game this year. In the Falcons 31-17 victory over Carolina earlier this season, the defense picked off Cam Newton 3 different times and did a great job of keeping the Panthers out of the end zone. The Falcons would love to see similar results from the defense again this week.
In that previous meeting with Carolina, Falcons running back Michael Turner had his best performance of the year carrying the ball 27 times for 139 yards and 2 scores. Turner has continued to provide solid results this year and is just 8 yards shy of the 1,000 yard plateau in rushing yards. Turner will likely be a key weapon again this Sunday against a Panthers rush defense that has given up a lot of yards between the tackles this year.
Still, the offense has to be prepared to score points considering how well the Carolina offense has been in recent weeks. QB Matt Ryan is armed with several weapons in the passing game to go to battle. WR Roddy White and TE Tony Gonzalez both have a chance to eclipse the 1,000 yard receiving plateau. Neither receiver was a big factor in the previous meeting with Carolina, but something tells me things could be much different this Sunday.
Jay's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I really like the over 48.5 here. The Falcons had a disappointing offensive performance last week and I expect them to bounce back this week. Additionally, I believe this Panthers offense is poised to score points as well. This game reached 48 points back in mid-October and there were a lot of points left on the field in that game. Take the over 48.5.
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