Atlanta Falcons (3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS) vs. Detroit Lions (5-1 SU, 4-1-1 ATS), 1:00 p.m. EST, Week 7 NFL, Sunday, October 23, 2011, Ford Field, Detroit, Mich., TV: FOX
by Badger, NFL Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Atl +3.5/DET -3.5
Over/Under Total: 47.5
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Now that the Detroit Lions have finally lost a game in 2011, this week we’ll get to see how the young teams responds to a little adversity when they host the Atlanta Falcons at Ford Field in Detroit for a big NFC clash on Sunday.
The Lions dropped their first game of the season last week when the San Francisco 49ers scored 10 points in the final two minutes of regulation to score a hard-fought, 25-19, victory on the road in Detroit.
The Lions couldn’t stop the 49ers running game (gave up 203 yards) and Matthew Stafford was sacked five times in the loss that was overshadowed by the silly handshake incident at midfield following the game between coaches Jim Harbaugh and Jim Schwartz.
They’ll host an Atlanta Falcon team that has alternated wins and losses each week of the season to arrive at week seven with a surprising 3-3 record. The Falcons were on the winning side last week, pulling away with 14 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to drop the rival Carolina Panthers, 31-17.
Atlanta’s forgotten man, running back Michael Turner, carried the ball 27 times for 139 yards a two scores in the victory as the Falcons finally returned their offense to the grind it out attack that led them to 13 wins a season ago.
With Detroit looking to stay in their unaccustomed position at the top looking down on the rest of the NFC, and the Falcons trying to put a mini winning streak together in order to get back up to that position, these two dome teams will likely pull out all the stops on Sunday in what is sure to be a feature game in week seven of the NFL.
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Despite their first loss the Lions have convinced oddsmakers in Las Vegas and the betting public in general that they are for real, as they opened Sunday’s game with Detroit listed as 4.5-point favorites at home. Most of the early money has come in on the Falcons, causing the number to drop to 3.5-points at just about every sports book in Vegas or on the Web.
The over/under total also has seen its share of line movement, opening at 48.5 early in the week only to drop down to 47.5 or as low as 47 by midweek as more and more money comes in on the under for this game.
All of the early money on the under is somewhat surprising considering this game features two of the game’s most exciting quarterbacks in Stafford and Atlanta’s Matt Ryan. The game will also feature two stiff defenses as well, so it appears that the sharp money is figuring that defense will win out in this one at the end.
I’d be willing to bet my entire bankroll that the Lions will face a steady dose of Turner and the Falcons running game one week after giving up over 200 yards to the 49ers. The fact that the Lions are giving up 129.5 yards per game on the ground (26th in NFL), added to the fact that the Falcons finally seemed to give Turner the carries he feeds on last week against Carolina tells me that the Lions front seven will be tested early and often in this game.
Conversely, the Lions strength on offense, the passing game, appears to be in a mismatch spot against the Falcons pass defense. At 277.2 yards a game Stafford and Lions can spread the field and throw the rock, and since the Falcons allow nearly 300 yards a game in the air (282.8 ypg – 27th) it looks like it will likely be the best route for the Lions to find the end zone.
Detroit may also be without running back Jahvid Best, who left last week’s game late with a concussion, so it would not be a stretch to see the Lions have Stafford throw the ball 50 times on Sunday to try and win it.
The last time these two teams met on the field was back in 2008, a game the Falcons won in the Georgia Dome, 34-21. The last time they played in Detroit was 2006, in what turned into a 30-14 victory for the Lions as 5-point home underdogs.
All told the head-to-head series between these two is dead even at 5-5 SU, but the Lions do hold a 4-2 SU record at home. All of those games were before the ’06 season though, so none of those victories came in the new home of Ford Field.
Bettors will like to know that the Falcons have controlled the series at the window, scoring a 6-3-1 ATS advantage over the Lions, but that mark slips to 2-2 ATS in the last four meetings.
The betting trends for this game are mixed, since the Falcons have played well for bettors on the road as the underdog in the past (13-6 ATS as road dog of 3.5 to 10 points) and on the road against good teams in general (6-1 ATS in last seven road games vs. team with winning record).
But the Lions also have a few trends in their favor, including a 5-1 ATS record at home in their last six games and a strong 13-3-1 ATS mark in their last 17 games versus and NFC opponent.
The under looks like a strong trend play too, going 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these two teams and a perfect 4-0 mark in the games played in Detroit. The under is also 4-1 in the Lions last five home games overall, and it has a 23-9-1 mark in the Falcons last 33 games as a road dog.
Badger’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Something tells me that the 49ers exposed the Lions a little last week, and that they might finally start giving back their great start by losing a few more games. Atlanta also finally started getting back to what they really are … a running team first with Turner pounding it between the tackles. Without a good feel one way or the other, I’m going to play it safe and play the trend play of the under. I’m taking the under of 47.5.
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