Atlanta Falcons (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS), Sunday September 25th, 2011. 4:15PM EST, NFL Football Week 3
Raymond James Stadium Tampa, FL
By Jay Horne, NFL Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Atl +1.5/TB -1.5
Over/Under Total: 45
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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were staring down the barrel of a 0-2 start last week as the trailed the Minnesota Vikings late in the 4th quarter. However, QB Josh Freeman took control and led the Bucs offense down the field to score the game winning touchdown with just 31 seconds remaining to score a dramatic victory. The late game-winning drive not only captured the Buccaneers first win of the season, but it gave Tampa Bay a spark on the offensive side of the football that they desperately needed. This week the Buccaneers look to build off that momentum when they host the Atlanta Falcons in a big NFC South showdown.
Atlanta also found some much needed confidence last week with a big win over the Philadelphia Eagles 35-31. The Falcons rallied in the 4th quarter to score 14 unanswered points to punch in their first victory of the season. There was a lot of concern surrounding the Falcons after a disappointing blowout loss to Chicago in the season opener, but it appears they rebounded nicely that Sunday night win over Philadelphia. Many experts believe the Falcons have the opportunity to contend for the AFC South Title this season and this week's battle with Tampa Bay should be a solid measuring stick to those expectations.
If the Falcons are going to be successful this season, they will need to improve on the defensive side of the football. The Falcons have given up over 30 points in both of their first two games and have been horrific against the pass. So far this season the Falcons have given up 301 yards per game through the air and given up big plays in each of those games. The secondary has played bad and shockingly the defensive line has not been very impressive either. Therefore it will be interesting to see if the Atlanta defense can come out with a better performance against a slightly less explosive offense this Sunday.
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Yes, things have been rather disappointing for the Tampa Bay offense through the opening weeks of the season. Overall, the Buccaneers have been mediocre at best. The Tampa Bay ground game has averaged just 80.5 yards per game. The scoring offense has posted just 22 points per game and the Buccaneers have only recorded two plays over 25 yards. However as stated before, the offense did get a boost from Freeman at the end of regulation last week.
Freeman is a guy that could really take the offense to new heights if he can limit the mistakes and get help from the receiving core. On the season, Freeman has completed 67% passing for 504 yards with 2 touchdowns and 2 picks. One of the big challenges for Freeman is finding a "go to" guy in the receiving game. It's normally not a great sign when your best receiver is a tight end. Yet, TE Kellen Winslow has become the most consistent threat in the receiving game over the last two years and currently has 10 catches for 110 yards on the season. If Winslow and Freeman can get some help in the passing game, the Buccaneers passing offense definitely has a lot of potential to become a dangerous force to move the football.
The Falcons offense is perhaps a bit more suited to become special in 2011. The offense has playmakers all over the field. QB Matt Ryan can make all the throws on the field and has earned the respect from defenses around the league. Throw in veterans TE Tony Gonzalez and WR Roddy White in the mix, and you have the makings for an extremely effective passing team. Plus running back Michael Turner is one of the better backs in the entire league when he is healthy. Put all those ingredients together and it is easy to see that the Falcons can beat you in a number of ways.
The key for Tampa Bay will be to play some disciplined defense. The Falcons are going to make plays and that is something opposing defenses will just have to accept. However if the Buccaneers keep the ball in front of their defenders while limiting the big plays, then they could possibly minimize the damage. If that happens, the Buccaneers offense will have a shot to win the game for the 2nd straight week.
Jay's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Atlanta is the better overall team, but there is concern with the road team in division match-ups. Still, the Falcons have won 5 straight games over the Buccaneers and I believe they extend that streak to 6 this Sunday. Take Atlanta +1.5.
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