Atlanta Falcons (2-1) 2-1 ATS, 1-2 O/U at San Francisco 49ers (3-1) 4-0 ATS, 1-3 O/U Sunday October 11, 2009 Monster Park San Francisco, California 4:05 p.m. EST
By Wilson of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Atlanta +2.5/San Francisco -2.5
Over/Under: 41
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The San Francisco 49ers are taking care of business lately as they are coming off of a huge 35-0 route of the winless St. Louis Rams. Also, the 49ers are enjoying first place in the NFC West as they welcome the Falcons to Monster Park this Sunday. Head Coach Mike Singletary has done a great job of motivating his guys and they have responded well. The team managed to score against the Rams in nearly every way possible which included a fumble recovery in the end zone, an interception returned for a TD, another fumble recovery returned for 6 and the traditional TD pass. When a team scores as much on defense as they do on offense usually the results are W’s.
However, I will say that the 49ers really didn’t punish the Rams the way the score would make it appear. San Francisco only had 228 total offense yards; 132 passing and 96 on the ground. Usually those numbers will put you in the loss column but the Rams were even weaker and they only had 177 total yards of offense. In a game where the Niners were missing their star running back Frank Gore it was only fitting that other scoring opportunities presented themselves, and the team responded.
The game changing bonus for the 49ers this week has been their focus on defense. If the Niners bring the same effort and get similar results they may just bury the Falcons this Sunday too. San Fran had 9 sacks, 4 interceptions, 9 QB hits, and 3 defensive touchdowns last week! Holy cow Batman! The Falcons will need to score immediately to cool off the Niners D and maybe bring them back to earth.
Even with the solid defensive play of the Niners they will need to get RB Gore back on track soon as their power run offense is struggling. Backup RB Glenn Coffee filled in for Gore but only had 74 yards on 24 carries. San Fran QB Shaun Hill is 7-0 at Monster/Candle Stick Park as he was 14 of 24 for 152 yards.
The Atlanta Falcons are coming into San Francisco after suffering a loss to the New England Patriots 26-10. Falcon’s QB Matt Ryan threw for 199 yards on 17 of 28 passing and zero touchdowns.
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The Falcons are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in the month of October. The over is 10-3 for Atlanta in their last 13 games in week 5. The under is 7-2 in San Francisco the last 9 games overall.
The QB matchup should be a good one as the Niner’s Shaun Hill has a 62 percent completion rate and a 93.3 rating overall. Atlanta’s Matt Ryan has a 65.9 percent completion rate and a 100.4 QB rating.
The Niner’s lead the Falcons in nearly every category including points per game, yards per game, and they are more productive in the red zone.
The line on this game opened at San Fran -3 with the total at 43. Currently the line is San Fran -2.5 at most Online Bookies and the total is at 41.
Mike Singletary has made believers out of these guys. We may be watching a star coach in the making. I like San Francisco to hold true at home and continue to play solid defense. The Niner’s will need to get their offense going a bit more to create the balance that teams need to make a decent playoff run.
Wilson’s Pick: San Francisco 35, Atlanta 14. The Niners get it done at home. Luck to ya.
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