Betting on Bad Football Teams
by Predictem.com Staff
We're going to present you with one hell of an oxymoron here...
BET ON BAD TEAMS!
What! Bet on bad teams? Why would we instruct you to partake in such nonsense? Let us explain.
A football point spread is created to try to get equal betting action on both sides so the bookie can collect his vigorish (commission).
With that being said, often times the oddsmakers will "shade" a line more towards the better team (aka the favorite) knowing that "squares" (uniformed novice bettors) will bet on the good team regardless of what the spread is on that team. We like to call this an inflated line.
I mean let's face it, the favorite is probably going to win but in football winning isn't everything, covering the spread is.
How many times have you been watching a game with the favorite winning straight up but the underdog covering the number? It happens often. Now that doesn't mean you go out and bet every underdog because that doesn't work either.
What we recommend you do is to keep spread records of each team each week and keep a running tally throughout the season. About week 8 or so you'll probably be very surprised to see that often times the good teams have poor ATS (against the spread) records while the crappier teams in the league, some which are even laying a goose egg in the win column are actually turning a profit!
Beating NFL spreads just isn't as easy as it looks. One alternative is playing moneylines. Then you don't have to worry about spreads but if you take a team laying seven points and buy the moneyline at -300 which eliminates the spread and creates a situation where you only have to win by one point, keep in mind that your team BETTER damn well win otherwise you've just dug yourself a three unit hole which means you have to win three straight times just to get yourself to the break-even point. Many bettors get buried doing this so it is not recommended.
In summary, bet on bad NFL teams, that's where the money is at relative to the point spread.
Good luck with your NFL football bets!
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