Baltimore Ravens (4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS) vs. Cleveland Browns (1-7 SU, 3-5
ATS), 8:30 p.m. EST, Week 10 Monday Night Football, November 16, 2009, Cleveland Browns
Stadium, Cleveland, Ohio, TV: ESPN
by Badger of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Ravens -11/Browns +11
Over/Under: 40.5
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Back in January when the suit-and-ties at ESPN and the NFL were setting the Monday Night Football schedule it’s a good bet they didn’t expect the Baltimore Ravens to be struggling at 4-4 and the Cleveland Browns to be taking on water at 1-7, but that’s what we’ll get this week when the Ravens travel West to Ohio take on the Browns in Cleveland Stadium for an AFC North “showdown” on this week’s Monday Night Football telecast.
The Ravens dropped to .500 after last week’s 17-7 defeat at the hands of the division-leading Cincinnati Bengals. The loss not only allowed the Bengals to sweep the season series from the Ravens, but it also gave Baltimore their fourth loss in the past five games and put the Ravens on the outside looking in as far as the AFC playoffs are concerned.
Cleveland is … well, Cleveland. If it wasn’t for LeBron, Shaq and the Cavs the entire city could hibernate for a year and nobody would miss a thing.
Last week was their bye week and the Browns used the week off to fire their General Manager, confirm to everyone that their first-year head coach Eric Mangini is skating on thin ice, redevelop the quarterback controversy that engulfed the team throughout the preseason, and basically admit to the football watching world that the entire organization is a leaderless, clueless franchise that has already turned their focus towards the 2010 season. Did I forget to mention anything?
Things are so bad in Cleveland that the oddsmakers in Las Vegas have packed in their season as well. How else can you explain that the Ravens opened the Monday Night primetime affair as 11-point favorites on the road? So far the public is in complete agreement, since everyone seems content to eat the chalk since the line has failed to move in either direction. (At time of print)
The over/under total opened at 40.5 and has also stayed firm with little or no line movement what so ever. But the failure for the lack of line movement on the point spread and the total is more likely because nobody cares enough about this game to try and get in ahead of the steam.
The Ravens are 4-4 on paper, but they are not nearly as bad as it looks on the surface. Their four losses have come against the Vikings, Patriots and Bengals twice, so it’s not like they are asleep at the wheel. And with the exception of last week’s 10-point loss to Cincy, the average margin of defeat in those games is just 3.6 points, so it’s not like they’re getting blown out week-to-week.
Offensively they are still in the top-10 in the NFL in yardage (358.2 ypg – 10th), passing yards (242.1 ypg – 10th) and scoring (25.8 ppg – 9th). They do need second-year quarterback Joe Flacco to pick up his game a little though, as he struggled against the Cincy pass rush last week and finished just 18-of-32 for 195 yards with two interceptions.
The Browns would kill for those kind of numbers out of their quarterback.
Since getting the starting job by default, Derek Anderson has thrown two touchdowns to nine interceptions, has a measly 4.42 yards per catch average, and is hitting on an almost unfathomable 42.8 percent of his throws for the NFL’s worst passing offense (121.5 ypg). Anderson was so bad in their last game against the Bears (6-of-17 for 76 yards, 2 INTs) that Mangini actually went back to Brady Quinn at the end of the game. Quinn, the king of the checkdown, responded with a 1-for-3 outing with a nine-yard completion.
But in both Anderson and Quinn’s defense, it’s hard to make chicken salad when all you are given is chicken bleep. Running back Jamal Lewis is now two steps too slow to the hole (Browns rushing 99.6 ypg – 22nd), the perimeter is manned by two rookie receivers (Mohamed Massaquoi and Brian Robiskie), and the offensive line has only one legit player with left tackle Joe Thomas being that lone stud.
Defensively, it doesn’t get any better for the Browns. Cleveland is ranked 32nd in yards allowed (409.1 ypg), 31st against the run (170.5 ypg) and 28th in points allowed (26.1 ppg). They are 22nd against the pass (238.6 ypg), but when teams are running the ball down your throat who needs to pass?
Baltimore’s defense is starting to show some age and some attrition due to all of the player losses in free agency over the years. Once at the top of the league in just about every category, the Ravens have fallen out of the top-10 in overall defense (320.6 ypg – 12th) and are allowing teams an average of 19.2 points per contest (9th). This week should be exactly what the doctor ordered for Ray Lewis and his crew though, as those season averages should get a healthy boost by the end of play Monday.
Baltimore won the first meeting between the AFC North rivals back on September 27th, 34-3. The Ravens piled up 479 yards of offense and held Quinn-then-Anderson and the Browns to 186 total yards in a landslide victory. The Ravens swept the season series last year to give them three straight wins in the series, covering the spread all three times as well for a 3-0 ATS record.
The over is 4-1-1 in the past six meetings, with the lone under cashing in back in the previous meeting this season.
Prior to that though it was all Browns. Cleveland covered the point spread in five straight games prior to last season, winning three of the five straight up. One other betting trend that makes the Browns look good on paper is the fact the home team is a solid 8-3 ATS in the last 11 head-to-head meetings. But I think you be hard pressed to find even a diehard Browns fan willing to bet on the Steamers, er, Browns these days.
Badger’s Pick: There is absolutely no way you are going to get me to sniff Cleveland in this game, not even if you give me 11 points. In fact, I’m not sure I’m even going to drop what I’m doing to watch this game, period. If you must, the best bet could be the under since the Browns have played well in previous Monday Night games and the Ravens simply have to win this game. Take the under of 40.5, but only if you’re a complete degenerate gambler.
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