Baltimore Ravens (9-5) +4, 39.5 O/U at Dallas Cowboys (9-5) -4, 39.5
O/U, Texas Stadium, Irving, Texas, 8:15 PM Eastern, Saturday, NFL Network
by Badger of Predictem.com
When the NFL announced its NFL Network schedule back in August the main highlight of their Baltimore Ravens-Dallas Cowboys December 20th Saturday Night telecast was that it was going to be the final game at storied Texas Stadium, but now the game has so many playoff implications that it’s dripping with drama.
The Cowboys took care of business last weekend on the same Texas Stadium turf with a crucial 20-8 victory over the New York Giants. Quarterback Tony Romo threw for 244 yards and two touchdowns with a bad back, and rookie running back Tashard Choice ran for 143 yards and a score as the Cowboys remained smack-dab in the middle of the NFC’s wildcard chase with a victory of the Giants. Next up are the surprising Baltimore Ravens in another must-win game.
The Ravens took a shot to the breadbasket last week, a last-second 13-9 defeat at the hands of the Pittsburgh Steelers, but despite the loss they also remain as a main player in the AFC’s final wildcard chase. But the Ravens will need rookie quarterback Joe Flacco to rebound if they hope to stay in the hunt, as Flacco took his lumps versus the Steeler’s No. 1 defense last week to the tune of just 115 yards passing and an interception.
Lost in all of the playoff significance is the fact that this is likely the final game at Texas Stadium. The Cowboys and owner Jerry Jones will open a new, billion dollar stadium next year in Arlington, and unless the Cowboys get the No.5 seed and make it through two rounds to face the No. 6 seed, this will be the final home game at the stadium where the Cowboys clinched five of their eight NFC Championships.
Oddsmakers opened the game with the Cowboys as 5-point favorites, but news of Romo’s bad back and other Cowboy injuries have driven the number down to Dallas minus 4-points. The over/under total opened at 39 and has held firm, with the exception of a few 39.5 at most of the Las Vegas sportsbooks as well as a few offshore sportsbooks. The moneyline lists the Cowboys at -200, with Baltimore as +170 underdogs.
Dallas will have the upper hand on offense in this game, provided all of the components are healthy enough to make it through the game. Romo took a shot to his back last week versus the Giants, and running back Marion Barber is still battling turf toe, tight end Jason Witten has a bum ankle, receiver Roy Williams has a bad foot, etc. But this time of the year, in a must-win game, you can bank on all of them playing for as long as they can.
The problem is that they will be facing another top-5 defense for the third week in a row. Linebacker Ray Lewis, safety Ed Reed and the Ravens defense boast the league’s 2nd overall defense (257.5 ypg) and the 3rd-ranked scoring defense (15.2 ppg), so the going will be tough. So will the hitting, as the Ravens seem to take pride (i.e. bounty system) in knocking the opponent’s players off the field.
Baltimore’s offense will not only need more offense from Flacco, but they will need more offense in general. When the Ravens were red-hot and winning seven-out-of-eight down the stretch the offense broke the 350-yard mark three times and averaged 29.8 points per game. Last week they were brought back down to earth by the Steelers as they were held to a season-low 202 yards.
They will need to add extra protection schemes to help protect Flacco too, as the Cowboys lead the NFL in sacks with 53 and have registered 20 sacks and nine turnovers in their last three games alone.
This will be the first and only chance for the Ravens to play at Texas Stadium, as these teams have met only twice since the team became the Ravens and both games were in Baltimore. Both games were also Baltimore victories (and covers), with the last one coming in a 30-10 fashion back in 2004.
For the year the Ravens have been a covering machine, with a 10-4 ATS record. Despite a strong defense, they are 8-5-1 versus the total for the year. The over is also a strong play historically, as they have come in over the total in 14 of their last 19 games on grass.
The Cowboys have struggled versus the spread this season (7-7 ATS), and those troubles seem to take place late in the season as well as they are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight games in December.
Badger’s Pick: Baltimore has a defense strong enough to hold down the Cowboys, while the Ravens offense is still too green to mount much of an attack versus the Cowboys. It could get ugly. Take the under of 39.5 here.
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