Baltimore Ravens (6-5 SU, 6-5 ATS) vs. Green Bay Packers (7-4 SU,
6-4-1 ATS), Week 13 NFL, 8:30 p.m. EST, Monday, December 7, 2009, Lambeau Field,
Green Bay, Wis., TV: ESPN
by Badger of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Ravens +3/Packers -3
Over/Under: 43.5
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When the Baltimore Ravens travel north to legendary Lambeau Field to play the Green Bay Packers on Monday Night Football this week both teams will be playing under nearly identical circumstances.
Stumble and put your playoff chances on flat-line. Win and live to fight another day.
Bottom line is that neither team can really afford to lose this late in the race, making it a must-win game for both on Lombardi Avenue in primetime on ESPN.
At 6-5, the Ravens are tied with Pittsburgh and Jacksonville for what would be the final wild card spot in the AFC. They helped themselves two-fold with last week’s 20-17 overtime victory against the Steelers on Sunday Night Football, because it not only kept them in the race but also gave them the early tiebreaker edge over the defending champs with one more game against the Steelers a few days after Christmas.
The 7-4 Packers hit the lowest of lows in their loss at Tampa Bay in early November, but since then they have been great on both sides of the ball and the end result is a three-game winning streak, including a 34-12 victory over Detroit on Thanksgiving. The win helped the Packers climb back into the NFC wild card chase, but with three of their last four games of the season away from Lambeau the Packers must seal the deal on Monday against the Ravens if they want to continue to have a fighting chance.
There are a bunch of sportsbooks that have yet to open this game up on their boards, but the ones that have are listing the Packers as the standard 3-point favorite at home. The Las Vegas Hilton is the only book with a different point spread, opening the game with Green Bay as 2.5-point favorites in Lambeau.
The over/under total for this game is a lot like the point spread … off the board (at time of print) at a majority of sportsbooks. All of the books in Las Vegas list the total at 44, while the few offshore sportsbooks that list a total are sitting at 43.5, so the number is moving already and you should be able to find the half-point if you want it.
After starting out the season with three straight 30-point games (and three straight wins), the Ravens offense has corrected itself lately and is starting to look more like the run-orientated outfit we became accustomed to last season scoring 23.4 points per game (12th).
Second-year quarterback Joe Flacco has seen his interception total of eight keep closer to his touchdown total of 13, so the Ravens seem to have reeled in passing attack of late, but they still throw it for 235.8 yards a game (13th). Ray Rice has emerged as the Ravens top running back (over 150 combined yards last week), which has allowed the offense to balance the run-pass load that was so pass-heavy early in the season.
Baltimore will be playing against a Packers defense that on the surface (i.e. statistically) is currently the best unit in the NFL, ranked 1st overall (281.5 ypg) with the 4th-best tally against the run and the 7th-best against the pass. But the Packers will allow big plays (19.5 ppg – 12th) and are playing the rest of the year without shutdown corner Al Harris and end/linebacker Aaron Kampman. Neither player was missed that much last week, but remember it was the Lions.
Don’t be surprised if the Ravens offensive game plan calls for runs at LB Brad Jones (Kampman’s replacement), and throws toward Tramon Williams (Harris’ replacement) and nickel-back Jarrett Bush (Williams’ replacement in the nickel) to try and take advantage of the backups pressed into duty.
Green Bay’s offense has been hitting on all cylinders the last few weeks, putting up 30 points on San Francisco the week before they scored 34 points on the Lions on Thanksgiving, to run their season average to 26.9 points per game (6th).
Aaron Rodgers threw for 348 and three touchdowns last week against Detroit to go over 3,000 for the season. His 22-to-5 touchdown-to- interception ratio is impressive, so is his 104.9 passer rating, and when you consider he’s put together this type of season despite being sacked nearly 50 times it makes it all that more impressive.
What will be interesting to see is how well the Packers running game does against the Ravens defense. The Ravens defense is not what it once was, but they still hold opponents to just 97.6 yards on the ground (6th) and are really strong in the red zone (17.1 ppg – 5th). They’ve held the Steelers and Colts to just 17 points each the past two weeks, and allowed a total of 14 in the three weeks prior, so they are certainly peaking at the right time.
These two teams last met in between the lines back in December of 2005, in what turned into a 48-3 route by the Ravens in Baltimore. Kyle Boller had his best day as a Raven (253 yds., 3 TD) and Brett Favre had one of his worst (144 yds., 2 INT) as the Packers got hammered in a game that the Ravens were only favored by 3.5-points.
But otherwise this head-to-head series has been all Packers through the years, with Green Bay holding a 5-2 SU lifetime edge as well as a 5-2 ATS advantage too. Only two of the previous seven meetings were at Lambeau Field (2001 and 1998), both ending as straight-up wins and covers for the Packers.
Baltimore has been strong on the road of late, going 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games away from home.
The other really strong betting trend is favoring a bet on the over, as the over is 8-2 in Baltimore’s last 10 games on Monday Night Football, as well as 13-6 in the Packers last 19 home games overall.
Badger’s Pick: It will be interesting to watch the line movement in this game during the week. The Packers are one of the public’s favorite teams to bet on, so it’s already set higher for that reason, and if it continues to move up than a play on the Ravens looks enticing. Even with two strong defenses on the field, I still feel there’s too much big-play potential on both teams to keep this game under the total. Take the over of 43.5.
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