Baltimore Ravens (13-4 SU, 8-8-1 ATS) at New England Patriots (14-3 SU, 10-7 ATS), Sunday January 22nd, 2012. 3:00PM EST, NFL Football AFC Championship Game
Gillette Stadium Foxboro, M.A.
By Jay Horne, NFL Handicapper of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Bal +8/NE -8
Over/Under Total: 50.5
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Last Sunday the New England Patriots put a final end to the Tim Tebow hysteria by throttling the Denver Broncos 45-10 while stamping their ticket to the AFC Championship Game. This week the Patriots will host the Baltimore Ravens inside Gillette Stadium with a trip to Super Bowl XLVI on the line. The game will feature a fan pleasing matchup between a red hot New England offense and a nasty Baltimore Ravens defense in what can only be described as a colossal showdown between AFC powerhouses.
The Patriots will enter this Sunday's match-up on the heels of a 9 game winning streak. During that stretch, the New England offense has been magnificent averaging 37 points per game. QB Tom Brady has been brilliant as well by tossing 25 scores compared to just 2 picks in those 9 games. Brady is arguably playing his best football in several years and is coming off a huge performance in the win over Denver last week where he completed 26 of 34 passing for 363 yards with 6 scores and 1 interception.
Wide receiver Wes Welker and tight end Rob Gronkowski have been on the good end of Brady's passes quite often this season. In fact, both targets have combined for nearly 3,000 receiving yards and a total of 26 touchdowns on the year. Clearly the Patriots offense is suited with the potential for big numbers but they will face one of their biggest challenges to date this Sunday against the Baltimore Ravens defense.
Baltimore currently ranks in the top 4 in nearly every defensive category in the NFL. The Ravens have held teams to just 288 total yards, 196 passing yards, and just 16.6 points per game. Baltimore has extreme talents stacked on the defensive side of the football led by veteran future Hall of Fame guys like LB Ray Lewis and safety Ed Reed. Reed was banged up at the end of last week's 20-13 victory over the Texans after catching a game clinching interception late in the 4th quarter.
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Reed is expected to play and the Ravens will need a great effort from him along with the rest of the Baltimore secondary to slow down the Patriots passing attack. Up front, Lewis and LB Terrell Suggs will be responsible for getting adequate pressure on Tom Brady. Brady seemingly becomes even more unstoppable the longer he has to throw the football so the Ravens must get pressure on him quickly to disrupt the Patriots offense.
Even if the Ravens defense stands up to the challenge against the talented Patriots passing attack, the Baltimore offense will need to play much better than they did last week against Houston. Baltimore managed just 227 total yards last week in the win against Houston and the majority of their points were the result of Houston turnovers. That type of performance will not get the job done this week against a Patriots offense that will put up their fair share of points no matter how well Baltimore's defense plays.
Baltimore does not have a flashy offense but they have run the ball extremely well behind running back Ray Rice and then built the passing game around that ground success. Rice has rushed for over 1,300 yards on the ground this season and added an additional 700 plus yards in the passing game. Rice is normally the guy that sets the tone for the offense and it will be interesting to see if the Patriots rush defense can keep him bottled up this weekend. For Baltimore it will be critical they have success on the ground and establish long drives to keep the New England offense off the field. If the Ravens are not able to establish their superb rushing attack, they will have to turn to QB Joe Flacco to lead the offense down the field.
Flacco has just not played well in recent weeks and completed just of 14 of 27 passes for 176 yards last week. Flacco did toss two touchdown passes in the win but the majority of the afternoon was spent seeing missed opportunities in the passing game. So far this season the Patriots pass defense has been horrible allowing an NFL 2nd worse 294 yards per game through the air. Therefore, the opportunity should be available for Flacco to get the ball into the hands of star WR Anquan Boldin and the rest of the Ravens receivers which will be needed to put some points on the scoreboard.
Jay's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: The Ravens are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games and I do not believe they will have an answer to Brady and company this weekend. Houston QB T.J Yates missed many open opportunities last week against the Ravens defense that Brady will not miss this week. I think there is a big speed mismatch with the Baltimore linebackers and the Patriots receivers which will be a big difference. Additionally, I just do not think Baltimore has enough offense to score the points it will take to win the game or cover the spread. Take New England -8.
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