Baltimore Ravens (11-4 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) at Cincinnati Bengals (9-6 SU, 8-5-2 ATS), Sunday January 1st, 2012. 1:00PM EST, NFL Football Week 17, Paul Brown Stadium Cincinnati, O.H.
By Jay Horne, NFL Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Bal -2.5/CIN +2.5
Over/Under Total: 38
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The most interesting game in the AFC this Sunday and perhaps the most interesting game in the entire NFL will feature the Cincinnati Bengals at home against the Baltimore Ravens in a game that will have huge postseason implications on the line. The 11-4 Ravens have already clinched their spot in the playoffs but still need to beat the Bengals or hope for a Pittsburgh loss in order to win the AFC North. Not only is the AFC North an important honor, but the Ravens could also help their selves with a 1st round bye in the playoffs with a win as well. However, the Ravens will have their hands full on the road against a Bengals team that will have a lot on the line as well. With a win over Baltimore, Cincinnati would stamp their ticket to the postseason by way of the wildcard position. However if the Bengals fail to beat the Ravens, they would need both the Raiders and Jets to lose on Sunday to still get into the playoffs. Of course the easiest route would be taking care of business this Sunday against the Ravens and that is just what the Bengals will attempt to accomplish inside Paul Brown Stadium this Sunday.
Just over a month ago now, the Ravens captured a 31-24 victory at home against the Bengals. It was an uncharacteristic game for both teams in that outing. The Ravens normally stout defense allowed nearly 500 yards of offense against a Bengals team that had not put up big offensive numbers all year. In the end, Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton tossed 3 picks and the Bengals just could not convert all of the yards into the points needed to score the win. This Sunday I would not expect another high scoring game like most observed back in November, but I would expect another extremely close game nevertheless.
For the Bengals to capture the victory, they definitely have to avoid the turnovers that plagued them in the prior meeting against Baltimore. Dalton is coming off a decent performance in the win over Arizona last week where he completed 18 of 31 passing for 154 yards and 2 scores. As long as running back Cedric Benson is able to be effective and move the chains, Dalton should not have to force any passes. The key for Cincinnati will be to get off to a good start and not fall behind which puts Dalton into more obvious type passing situations.
The Ravens have similar issues going on with their offense as well. QB Joe Flacco has been more inconsistent this season completing just 56% on the year for 3,480 yards with 19 scores and 12 picks. Luckily for the Ravens, running back Ray Rice has done it all to lead the offense. Rice has racked up the 5th most rushing yards of any tailback in the league this season with 1,173 yards on the ground. However, Rice has been just as dangerous with his hands out of the backfield adding an additional 696 yards receiving on the season. Collectively Rice has posted 13 touchdowns on the year and he should definitely be the focus of the Bengals defense again this Sunday.
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Betting Trends
Cincinnati is just 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 games and but are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games at home. The Bengals have also reached the over total in 8 of their last 12 games.
Baltimore is just 2-4-1 ATS in their last 7 games and 3-4 SU on the road this season. The Ravens have also reached the under total in 4 of their last 5 games.
Jay's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: The Ravens have been struggling against some mediocre teams over the last few weeks and have now dropped 3 straight ATS. Cincinnati has not played much better ATS but they have been playing very solid. Throw out the last second touchdown against Houston and the Bengals would be sitting on 3 straight wins with a playoff berth at this time. Therefore, I really just like the way this Bengals team is playing compared to Baltimore at this point in the year. Not to mention the Bengals have a little more to play for as this is a "do or die" type of scenario for their football team. Cincinnati knows they gave this game away earlier this year and I don't think they let this one slip away. Take the Bengals to cover the spread.
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