Baltimore Ravens (10-3 SU, 7-5-1 ATS) vs. San Diego Chargers (6-7 SU, 4-9 ATS), 8:20 p.m. EST, NFL Week 15, Sunday, December 18, 2011, Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, California, TV: NBC
by Scotty L, Pro Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Balt -1.5/SD +1.5
Over/Under Total: 44
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The Baltimore Ravens head east to face the San Diego Chargers in this Sunday’s evening game. The Ravens are a veritable lock for the playoffs, tied for the Steelers for the AFC North lead at 10-3. The Chargers have won 2 in a row and are still clinging to playoff dreams. A 6-game slide after a 4-1 start pretty much killed their season, but as is their wont, they have begun a late-season spurt.
While beating the lowly Jaguars and Bills are not the most impressive pair of wins, the Chargers desperately needed to breathe some positivity into a franchise that was reeling. The Chargers didn’t really look that good despite a 4-1 start, but they were winning games they would normally lose, so things were looking up. People were eager to see how well they would do once they actually got their act together--a second-half inevitability with the Chargers over the past 4-5 years.
But they actually became worse and before the skid was over, they had fallen to 4-7 and all seemed lost. Two wins have helped. QB Philip Rivers has gone 46 for 61 for 6 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in the past two weeks. Ryan Mathews, with one 100-yard game in the first 10 weeks, has passed that number in 3 straight weeks and is poised to go over 1000 with 57 more yards. It’s no lock that he gets that against the robust Ravens’ run defense. Nevertheless, the Chargers’ offense is finally getting healthy, with TE Antonio Gates and WR Malcom Floyd back in the fold. This offense is rounding into shape.
San Diego will need it against perhaps the most-balanced defense in the league. Baltimore has given up a paltry 15.5 points per game. They are ranked 2nd against the run and 5th against the pass. The scary thing is that they are getting better, having allowed a mere 26 total points in their last 3 games. And they’re not so bad on the other side of the ball, either.
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QB Joe Flacco is already past 3000 yards. With only one pick thrown in his last 3 games, he is in sharp form, with nice options at his disposal. WRs Anquan Boldin (55-836-3) and Torrey Smith (37-693-6) are good weapons, with Ray Rice (62-593-2) and TE Ed Dickson (48-458-3) rounding out a solid pass catching crew. Rice is also over 1000 yards on the ground this season, giving this offense some nice variety. In addition, they are awfully consistent and not prone to constant deviations in form.
The Chargers need to win out to have any chance at the playoffs. Typically, they rarely come through in those types of situations, but they usually take it right to the brink before coming up short. Going off of that, one might pick them in this game. With their sense of urgency now kicked in, they presumably have more to play for than the 10-3 Ravens, who can still absorb a loss at this point without disastrous consequences.
The Chargers’ offense is usually explosive in late-season, especially when they are in scratch-and-claw mode. With key playmakers making their way back into the offense, the Chargers look like a different team. Having scored 75 points in the past 2 games, look for their offense to continue doing well this week. The Ravens “D” will be tough as always, but the Chargers are at home and should put up points.
Scotty L’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: The Chargers will need to compile 60 minutes of good football to win this game. They probably won’t get to the playoffs, but that doesn’t mean that there won’t be a time or two this season where they are able to flex their full powers. Facing a Baltimore team that might be due for a down game, look for Rivers to put all his weapons to use and for an improving Chargers’ defense to make some big plays. If the Chargers can keep their defense off the field a little bit, look for them to start getting to the Ravens late en route to a cover. Take the San Diego Chargers plus 1.5 points.
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