Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings Preview and Pick

Chicago Bears (5-8) +10, 43.5 O/U at Minnesota Vikings (7-6) -10, 43.5 O/U, Metrodome, 8:30 PM Eastern, Monday
by Badger of Predictem.com

Two NFC North rivals clash when the Chicago Bears travel to take on the Minnesota Vikings in the Metrodome on Monday Night Football. The game features a little role reversal too, as it’s the Vikings who will be trying to hold onto their playoff position, while the Bears will be just playing out the rest of the season.

If the playoffs started today it would be the Vikings, at 7-6, and not the Bears who would be sitting in the final NFC wild card spot. Minnesota is on a four-game winning streak that has vaulted them into the thick of the playoff chase, with their last victory a 27-7 decision over San Francisco last Sunday.

The Bears are going in the other direction fast in a season that can only be described as a disappointment, just one year removed from being the NFC’s representative in the Super Bowl. Three weeks ago they seemed to salvage their season with a huge comeback win over Denver (37-34). But since then they have lost to the Giants (21-16) and the Redskins (24-16) and appear to have more questions than answers at the moment.

Oddsmakers opened this game with the Vikings as a 10-point favorite, with an over/under total of 43.5.

Minnesota is led by the likely rookie of the year on offense, running back Adrian Peterson. Peterson returned to action two weeks ago and is still nursing his sore knee, but the runner from Oklahoma has already eclipsed the 1,200-yard mark and has scored 11 touchdowns. Because of Peterson the Vikings are 1st in the NFL at rushing averaging 172.2 yards per game. That’s a good thing, because the Vikings are 31st in passing (164.1ypg) and 11th in scoring with a 23.5 points per game average.

The Bears offense, not a juggernaut of a unit to begin with, is reeling with the loss of quarterback Rex Grossman for the season (knee). Brian Griese has played well a few games and bad a few games in Grossman’s absence, so there’s even speculation that third- stringer Kyle Orton might get some snaps in the final weeks. Running back Cedric Benson is out as well, so needless to say the Bears are nothing like the unit that is 22nd overall in total yards (305.2 ypg) and 20th in points per game at 19.5.

The Vikings resurgence in the NFC playoff picture has been keyed by their defense. Minnesota returned three interceptions for touchdowns versus the New York Giants three weeks ago, and ran another one back last week in San Francisco. On the year the Vikings are extreme opposites … ranked 1st versus the run (70.4 yards allowed) but ranked dead last versus the pass (273.8 ypg). They have done a decent job of limiting the damage though, as their 18.8 points per game average is 8th in the NFL.

How far has the once mighty Chicago defense fallen? Consider this, the Bears are 29th overall in yards allowed, at over 350 per game (355.1). The unit is no longer tough against the run (26th -123.6 ypg), so it’s no surprise that they are getting scored on at a 22.8 points per game pace (19th). The wear of having to carry such a weak offense is starting to show, and the direct result is their 5-8 season.

If it weren't for the Bears return man, Devin Hester (6 TDs), the Bears might have no offense at all. With the state of the Bears team now, if Minnesota even thinks about kicking the ball to Hester coach Brad Childress should be fired on the spot.

Minnesota won and covered in the previous meeting between these teams, 34-31, in Chicago in mid-October. The Vikings are 7-4 ATS for the season, but are a white-hot 4-0 ATS during the winning streak. The Vikings also have a solid recent history versus teams in the NFC North, as the are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games in the division.

Chicago is a meager 4-9 ATS for the season and has covered in just one of their past four games. A betting trend that looks good is their 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in week 15, but you’re reaching for something that may not be relevant if you’re using that one to lay a wager for the Bears.

Another betting trend to watch is the under, which is 7-1 in Minnesota’s last 8 games on Monday Night Football. That goes against a bunch of trends towards the over (over 3-0-1 in last 4 head-to- head; over is 3-1 in Chicago’s last 4 games; over is 3-1 in Minnesota’s last 4 games).

Most online sportsbooks have kept the numbers at Minnesota -10 and a 43.5 total to start the week, but that’s more likely a sign that bettors are waiting to see who will be playing quarterback for the Bears. Expect the line to move once that announcement comes later in the week.

Badger’s Pick: What is with the Monday Night Football schedule this year? Can we get a game worth betting on one of these weeks? That said, I'm leaning toward the under in this game. Chicago will stack the box and make the Vikings beat them some other way then via the run. Plus, the Bears have revenge going in because Peterson embarrassed them last time to the tune of 224 yards and 3 TD's. The Bears will struggle to run and pass, making this game a snoozer into the late quarters. Go with the under and then go to bed, you can get the score in the morning.

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