Cincinnati Bengals (3-6-1 SU, 3-7 ATS) vs. Baltimore Ravens (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS)
NFL Week 12
Date/Time: Sunday, November 27th, 2016 at 1:00PM EST
Where:M&T Bank Stadium – Baltimore, MD
by Bob, Expert Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread:CIN +4.5 / BAL -4.5
Over/Under Total: 40.5
Sunday afternoon on CBS, the Baltimore Ravens will host the Cincinnati Bengals in a game that many may have thought would be a great one coming into 2016 but is now just a formality…or at least in my opinion it is. Cincy enters with an extremely unimpressive 3-6-1 record while Baltimore who still has a small glimmer of hope for a Wild Card spot enters at 5-5 on the season. This is the first meeting between these two division foes in 2016.
The line at this time has the Ravens as a 4.5 point home favorite. Typically, this game is a three point spread or even closer but fact is, the Bengals have looked bad, Baltimore is at home, and AJ Green is out for the Benglas with a bad hamstring injury that may sideline him for the remainder of 2016. The public agrees with this line seeing as how 67% of the action is on the Ravens to cover while 58% likes the score to stay under the total of 40.5, which to me sounds a tad low but I am laying off that line in this game.
What has been the Bengals problems in 2016? I have been high on this team for a few years now and they do nothing but let me down year after year. In my opinion, the issue with Cincinnati this season is not only lack of offense, but the fact that they have played a pretty tough schedule. Entering this year most would not look and think the Bengals had too rough of a run, but as it has played out, they have not had it too easy. They have already faced the Patriots, Cowboys, Steelers in Pittsburgh, and a Dolphins team that is actually starting to win some football games here of late. I am not making excuses for this team, but I do not believe they are truly as bad as their record indicates. With that said, the offense stinks. The Bengals are ranked 25th in the NFL in scoring and are not even scoring 20 per game. This combined with a defense that is allowing teams to score almost 23 per game just is not a good recipe for winning.
Now, the Bengals are facing a Baltimore team that just like Cincinnati cannot score, but the guys play defense. The Ravens are ranked 5th in the NFL in scoring defense and now the Bengals have to try and get something going without their biggest outside weapon, AJ Green. This will not be an easy task for Cincy, but to be honest, I am not too sold on Baltimore either. Their offense is just as bad, almost identical when it comes to points scored, and Joe Flacco has certainly not looked like a former Super Bowl champion this season. The key to this game will be special teams and field position. The 40.5 total actually looks right and whoever wins this game is going to need to win the field position battle and make big plays where not expected. Will there be a defensive score? A huge return on special teams? Missed field goals? I believe this game is going to come down to something like that.
I do not trust either of these teams, I just don’t. Something tells me though that there are way too many people that think this is just a “gimmie” for the Ravens when in all honesty its not. This game will come down to the wire, mark my words. I will fade the public and fade the home fave in this one. I think the Bengals go into Baltimore and make this a game and not just that, they may find a way to grind out an ugly win.
Bob’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: TAKE THE CINCINNATI BENGALS +4.5
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