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Super Bowl 50 Prop Bets - Analysis with Picks

Super Bowl Prop Bets Featured On
NFL Super Bowl 50
Date/Time: 2/7/16 6:25 PM EST
by Keith, NFL Handicapper,

With the Super Bowl just around the corner, we have taken the liberty of sharing some of our best prop bets featured on If you are not keen on approaching the spread, here are some tasty alternatives for your to consider:

Play: Passes Defended By Josh Norman (Over 1) – We suspect Gary Kubiak is going to look to bolster Peyton Manning’s confidence and test Josh Norman in one foul swoop. We suspect a heavy volume of targets will be coming Norman’s way as he tasked with covering a solid WR1 in Demaryius Thomas and a streaky, speedy secondary option in Emmanuel Sanders. While we respect Norman as a shutdown corner, we still suspect that he will likely surrender a few receptions to this dynamic duo of receivers, furthermore we think he will be successful in fending over several more targets. The strategy would be to eliminate Norman’s presence early, to allow the Broncos to fire at all cylinders with great horsepower.

Play: Roman Harper (CAR) First Interception +1800 – This is strictly a value play as the market undervalues the likelihood of this scenario coming to fruition. Roman Harper for as long as he has been in the NFL has been a ball-hawking safety. We saw Harper make big plays on the Saints before coming over to their NFC South rival Carolina. Harper is rugged, nasty and physical and he is a true box to box safety that has the hitting power of a linebacker and the coverage ability of a cornerback. We often have seen Harper employed in bracket coverage schemes. Likely he will be lining up away from Josh Norman to aid Cortland Finnegan in fending off Emmanuel Sanders on many schemes, if necessary. With Peyton Manning liking his Tight Ends, Kubiak will likely draw up many post routes to Owen Daniels. With Roman Harper playing Strong Safety, the Tight End is his responsibility off the line. With Manning’s ball losing zip and his accuracy slipping just slightly, the opportunity for Harper to strike is certainly prevalent. We suspect both Carolina safeties will be flying up to the football and with tremendous upside offered with a veteran ball-hawk like Harper we can’t pass this up.

Play: Devin Funchess (CAR) Most Receiving Yards +1600 – The rookie from Michigan has made a splash like many suspected, especially in the absence of Carolina’s premier wide-out option Kelvin Benjamin shelfed for the year. The combination of Ted Ginn Jr., Devin Funchess, Corey Brown and Jerricho Cotchery has been explosive with Cam Newton’s prolific and historic MVP-worthy campaign. We have seen Funchess over the second half of the season emerge as a reliable receiving option that has gathered voluminous amounts of targets, most notably in where he was targeted 8 times against Tampa Bay at the end of the regular season, posting a 7/120/1 line on the day. Funchess is a beast and an absolute athlete, built with a 6’6 tight end frame with blazing wide-receiver speed. Funchess deployed effectively is a nightmare for any defensive back to cover, we suspect Funchess is more likely to square off with Bradley Roby or Josh Bush both scenarios where Funchess will be able to take advantage of a potential mismatch. Harris and Talib, Denver’s two best corners and very good and curtailing wide-outs indiscriminately, will likely be summoned upon Ginn and Cotchery, which will likely open things up for both Funchess and Brown. Given the amount offered with this prop, we see this as a certainly feasible scenario and thus implore any willing takers to move forward with this bet.

Play: Denver Broncos Last Team To Score +105 – Many are talking chalk outright in this one and some have forecasted that the Panthers are clearly a superior team readily capable of blowing out Denver outright. With this being said, if such an event were to materialize we surmise Carolina will be all the more inclined to ensure all their players get in the game to get a taste of the Super Bowl. These events come once in a lifetime for many and if the game was all but wrapped up, we can imagine the jubilation of securing a Super Bowl victory will force Carolina to play a less aggressive style of football. The Panthers will likely call off the dogs if they build a lead that would ensure they hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy and thus would be playing simply to end the game, rather than defend a lead or run up the score. With this being said, Denver led by Peyton Manning will not go quietly and if such a scenario were to unfold, it is safe to conclude the Broncos will be likely to score last.

Play: Peyton Manning to Throw Four or More Touchdowns +1800 – Again this is strictly a value play. Many are quick to forget this is the quarterback that actively holds the most career touchdown passes in NFL history. Just two years ago, Manning was piecing together a record-breaking season both in individual and team offense bests. While we appreciate the severity of Manning’s ailing condition, if this his last game in a NFL uniform, he will likely want to go out with a bang. Many analysts herald in the Carolina defense, but again if there was a contrarian philosophy to be utilized it would be when Manning has the rock in his hand. Peyton is a pure field general and he can dissect virtually any defense if you give him enough time to study up and analyze game plans. With this being said, Carolina is by no means immune to being lit up through the air. We saw another fading superstar in Drew Brees reignite in New Orleans to torch the vaunted Carolina defense for 282 yards through the air with 3 touchdowns and just 1 interception respectively, on December 6th in the Superdome. The Saints put up an astounding 38 points and forced Carolina in to overtime to defend their then undefeated record. With the arsenal of weapons at Manning’s disposal and his proficiency as a quarterback historically, this number is far too inflated and completely undermines the brilliance of Manning as a signal caller. While this scenario is not a certainty by any means, we certainly think the prospects of Manning going for four touchdowns or more are far more likely than 18:1.

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