Betting Underdogs in NFL Football
by Predictem.com Staff
When you approach the weekend's NFL card, you should always consider betting underdogs first. It's hard to do, but it will change the way you bet football games forever.
This isn't to say that you need to bet every underdog because that's not a winning proposition. We're just recommending that you consider underdogs FIRST.
The reason for this is that the oddsmakers know that everybody loves to bet the good teams. This in turn creates what we'll call an inflated line.
Let's use the 2006 Green Bay Packers vs. the Seattle Seahawks as an example. Green Bay is somewhat of a poor team. Let's say they go into Seattle, who is pretty good in 2006 and are getting +7 vs. the Seahawks.
BET ON NFL GAMES AT REDUCED VIG -105 INSTEAD OF THE NORMAL -110 AT 5DIMES SPORTSBOOK
Many sports bettors first thought is that Seattle is going to win this game because their a better team and for that reason many will lay the 7 points with the 'Hawks.
The truth is, the real line SHOULD be around Green Bay +6, but the line may have been pushed to -7 because the bookies know that your gonna lay it one way or another and it gives them a chance to sneak another point onto the spread which coincidentally crosses to another key number which is huge for the sportsbook.
Point spreads are created by the linesmaker based on public perception, not the true difference in what they think the winning margin will be. Just look at any week's card and compare it against the lines. Very few even come close to being similar to the real margin of victory.
The truth is, good teams win but bad teams cover. We know it's hard to root for the bad team. We also know it's rough to be the recipient of a backdoor cover (dog covers at end of game by a field goal or garbage touchdown) and after that happens to you for a few seasons you get sick of it.
There's a few more reasons to take dogs as well. Teams know when their an underdog. It's only human nature to play more motivated when your not expected to win.
Another reason to hunt for the barking dog is that in this day and age NFL coaches are big into sportsmanship and won't run up the score on another team. If their winning late and have an opportunity to score, often times they'll sit on the ball and kill the clock. We've all been there. It really sucks watching that clock tick down knowing that you only needed them to kick a field goal so you can cover your bet. They ain't gonna do it though. Very few coaches run up the score anymore.
Yet another reason for taking the dog is that the NFL has changed over the years and dynasty's don't really exist anymore. Parity is the word and we're a firm believer that on any given day, any team can beat another team.
If your tired of being sent to the poor house each football season, we recommend you try changing the way you gamble on NFL football games. You will be very pleased with the results!
On another note, the same thing can be said for betting unders instead of overs, however, we'll leave that for another article.
If you liked this article, you may also be interested in reading another article that offers tips and advice relative to placing your football bets.
Editor's Picks - Each week our in house pro's tackle the week's card and make predictions on the week's games ATS! Best bets, top plays, premium selections, etc. FREE!
Expert NFL Picks - Free premium plays from the "real" expert football handicappers from around the web. Don't fall for second rate picks from ESPN, the NFL Network, Hank Goldberg or the screaming touts on TV.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We forecast the loudest barking dog of the week. Expect a 60% winning percentage with these plays.
Favorite of the Week Play - We examine "the chalk" and determine the safest bet in which who you should lay the points with. Forecasting winning favorites long term isn't easy, but we've had some pretty good luck with it over the years.
Line Movement Plays - We report all the major line moves from the gridiron and forecast whether it's public money or sharp action causing the move. Who will cover the spread this week? Our line move plays!
NFL Consensus Picks - See what the general public is betting on. We use this info to fade the public to the tune of big profits over the course of the season.
NFL Trends - Don't ever let anybody tell you that the trend is your friend. These picks make great fades which is exactly what we do with them.
Monday Night Football Picks - The ultimate bailout play. Our MNF picks are golden and have hit 62% or better 3 out of the past 4 years. (Last season was a disaster!) Did we mention that their FREE?
Superbowl Predictions - Our take before the season on who we think will win Superbowl XLVIII. We'll update with a final pick based on the actual remaining teams a week prior to the big game at MetLife Stadium on February 2nd, 2014.
Super Bowl Picks - Everybody here in the Predictem office takes their best preseason shot at predicting the winner Superbowl 46. Pride is on the line here! Oh, and LOOT too! Picks will be updated a 2nd and final time two weeks before the Super Bowl plays.
5Dimes - Bet your NFL football picks at -105 odds every day of the week! 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Pleasers and huge point buying opportunities as well!
Bovada - Tired of deposit hassles? Bet on football using your credit card at a sportsbook where your Visa CAN and WILL work for deposits!
Sportsbook - Get a 25% signup bonus on deposits of $200 or more (up to $250 in bonus money). Your credit card WILL work here!
GTBets - You get to select 2 NFL teams and get a FREE half point every time you bet them! Offers a generous 100% bonus! One of the best at accepting credit cards for deposits too!
Football Bets - We explain all the different types of wagers that you can place on an NFL game and give advice on which ones good and which are sucker bets. We also explore the value of betting at reduce odds.
Superbowl Betting - We explain all the different types of wagers you can making including point spread bets, totals, moneylines and prop bets. No need to go to Vegas! You can bet the big game online!
Weekly Fantasy Football - If you drafted a crappy team or the injury bug has bit you and wrecked your season, we've got something really cool to turn you on to that will change the way you play fantasy sports forever!
Famous Football Quotes - From the inspirational to the greatest touchdown calls of all time. We've got them!
Pro Football Hall of Fame - A full list of NFL players who have been inducted into the NFL HOF.
The Spread - Offers free NFL football predictions, matchups, stats including both offensive and defensive and more!
Fantasy Football Sites - Get recommendations on where to find weekly updated player news, depth charts and legit websites that offer the best stat and record tracking for your fantasy football league.