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Betting Underdogs in NFL Football
by Predictem.com Staff
When you approach the weekend's NFL card, you should always consider betting underdogs first. It's hard to do, but it will change the way you bet football games forever.
This isn't to say that you need to bet every underdog because that's not a winning proposition. We're just recommending that you consider underdogs FIRST.
The reason for this is that the oddsmakers know that everybody loves to bet the good teams. This in turn creates what we'll call an inflated line.
Let's use the 2006 Green Bay Packers vs. the Seattle Seahawks as an example. Green Bay is somewhat of a poor team. Let's say they go into Seattle, who is pretty good in 2006 and are getting +7 vs. the Seahawks.
Many sports bettors first thought is that Seattle is going to win this game because their a better team and for that reason many will lay the 7 points with the 'Hawks.
The truth is, the real line SHOULD be around Green Bay +6, but the line may have been pushed to -7 because the bookies know that your gonna lay it one way or another and it gives them a chance to sneak another point onto the spread which coincidentally crosses to another key number which is huge for the sportsbook.
Point spreads are created by the linesmaker based on public perception, not the true difference in what they think the winning margin will be. Just look at any week's card and compare it against the lines. Very few even come close to being similar to the real margin of victory.
The truth is, good teams win but bad teams cover. We know it's hard to root for the bad team. We also know it's rough to be the recipient of a backdoor cover (dog covers at end of game by a field goal or garbage touchdown) and after that happens to you for a few seasons you get sick of it.
There's a few more reasons to take dogs as well. Teams know when their an underdog. It's only human nature to play more motivated when your not expected to win.
Another reason to hunt for the barking dog is that in this day and age NFL coaches are big into sportsmanship and won't run up the score on another team. If their winning late and have an opportunity to score, often times they'll sit on the ball and kill the clock. We've all been there. It really sucks watching that clock tick down knowing that you only needed them to kick a field goal so you can cover your bet. They ain't gonna do it though. Very few coaches run up the score anymore.
Yet another reason for taking the dog is that the NFL has changed over the years and dynasty's don't really exist anymore. Parity is the word and we're a firm believer that on any given day, any team can beat another team.
If your tired of being sent to the poor house each football season, we recommend you try changing the way you gamble on NFL football games. You will be very pleased with the results!
On another note, the same thing can be said for betting unders instead of overs, however, we'll leave that for another article.
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