Buffalo Bills (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (3-5-1 SU, 4-5 ATS)
NFL Week 11
Date/Time: Sunday, November 20, 2016 at 1:00 PM EST
Where: Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
by Keith, Expert Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: BUF +3/CIN -3
Over/Under Total: 47
On the Week Eleven docket, an intra-conference clash between the AFC East’s Buffalo Bills and the North’s Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio with a 1:00 PM scheduled kick-off. The game is set to be aired on FOX with regional coverage. The Bills enter off yet another loss, increasing their skid to three games. The most recent Buffalo assailant was the Seattle Seahawks who defeated Buffalo at home 31-25. Cincy was the victims of a one point loss at the Meadowlands when they took on the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium on Monday Night, as they extend their winless streak to two games. In their previous ten games each, both teams have combined for a 7-13 mark against the spread. The two teams met last year and Cincinnati came away the victor in Buffalo by a score of 34-21.
In the early going, we have seen a huge lean on the Bills despite their ability to win. The Bills are taking back a field goal in a virtual toss-up where the home team is spotting three points by virtue of the fact. The Bills are 0-3 ATS in their last three, failing to cover twice as a near touchdown underdog in their last two. The Bengals have been marginal favorites and also failed to cover in their last two overall.
We said it earlier than season when Buffalo was hot, it has truly been a tale of two season for the Buffalo Bills, who now have embarked upon a three-game losing streak after they seemed to be unstoppable when they won four in a row, a few weeks ago. Three weeks previous, the Buffalo Bills appeared to be on course for the basement of the AFC East after they got off to a 0-2 start where their offense looked non-existent. Since they knocked off Arizona, New England and now Los Angeles in consecutive weeks, the Bills have been consistent in scoring at least 25 points in each of their following match-ups. The problem is their defense, who gave up more points than their offense can afford. The stock of the Bills is low at the moment and thus for many they see this one as an opportunity to buy the Bills back.
The Bengals still look nothing remotely close to the playoff team we saw in 2015. The Bengals were continuing to win at will at this time last year but this year this franchise has seemingly hit a wall. With all the glitz and glamour of their aerial attack, the Bengals cannot generate results. The yardage and the vertical passing routes are not enough to translate to wins as the Bengals continue to lose close games where their offense cannot score enough to acquiesce a victory.
We are simply going to fade the public on this one as the heavy lean signifies an unbalanced wager. Neither team offers tremendous upside but we have to at this point side with the team that has been one point removed from two wins in the previous two weeks. The Bills were a hot commodity a few weeks ago and seemingly they continue to do so even when they have lost three in a row. When a team gets hot they are more likely to be overvalued and even the points they take back may be marginalized. The heavy action on the pooch may actually push the line to a friendly price when comparing it to the open. This market may actually reduce to a Pick-Em which again offers tremendous upside to Cincy takers be that the Bengals are at home where they are 2-1 on the year. The combination of each team’s poor play is the driving price in this nebulous market. The bottom line is this when you score 25 points in three consecutive games and cannot cough up one win, something is terribly wrong. Buffalo’s offense is still prone to stalling at any given point as we have seen earlier this season and we will mitigate that risk by backing Cincy at home.
KEITH’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: CINCINNATI -3
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