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Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals Point Spread - Pick ATS

Buffalo Bills (3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS)
NFL Week 5
Date/Time: Sunday, October 7th, 2017 - 1:00 PM ET
Where: Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
TV: CBS
by Keith, Expert Football Handicapper, Predictem.com

Point Spread: CIN -3
Over/Under Total: 39.5

On the Week Five docket, an intra-conference clash between the AFC East’s Buffalo Bills and the North’s Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio with a 1:00 PM scheduled kick-off. The game is set to be telecasted on CBS for regional demographics. The Bills enter off yet another win, increasing their streak to two wins. Most recently, the Bills traveled to Atlanta to defeat the defending the NFC Champions, the Falcons by a score of 23-17. Buffalo would foster the win despite closing as an eight-point underdog. Cincy also is heading in with high spirits after snapping a three-game skid and earning their first victory of the season. The Bengals rolled divisional foe Cleveland Browns on the road by a score of 31-7. Between both sides, the two parties met last year in 2016 where Buffalo would defeat Cincinnati by a score of 16-12 in what was a battle of maligned offenses. Overall, Cincinnati has won three of the last four against the Bills.

In the early going, we have seen a huge lean on the Bills as a savory underdog to the public eye. The Bills are taking back a field goal in a virtual toss-up game where the home team is spotting the three points by virtue of the fact they are getting this one on their own turf. The Bills have been a quality play in their last four, covering in all contests they have been offered in 2017. This catapults the Buffalo stock to new levels and sets up the Bills for a huge let-down. The Bengals have covered in their last two respectively but as mentioned won their first game, last week.

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Last season it was a tale of two seasons for the Buffalo Bills, who embarked upon a several losing streaks despite seeming unstoppable at certain points of their 2016 campaign. The Bills offense was very much boom or bust in 2016 and similar tendencies seem to be taking shape here in 2017. This was a team that was held to just a field goal against Carolina and committed several turnovers against the New York Jets. However, Buffalo has recently rattled off two wins against Atlanta and Denver. Two teams placed in the upper echelons of NFL competition.

The Bengals still look nothing remotely close to the playoff team we saw in 2015. The Bengals despite having arguably one of the best receiving corps in the NFL, yet they cannot proliferate the yardage and points many are expecting of them on a continual basis. Very simply there is a lot of talk about the potential and potency of the Bengals aerial attack, but they still cannot generate results consistently. In the first two Bengal losses of 2017, Cincinnati accumulated just nine points. However, in their last two weeks Cincinnati has finally flamed up their offense as they have averaged 27.5 points against Cleveland and Green Bay on the road. Perhaps the tide is finally turning.

We are going to fade the public on this one as the heavy lean on an underdog throws up many red flags. Buffalo looks too easy at this price and the old saying is true: “if it’s too good to be true, it almost certainly is.” On paper, Buffalo is the better team and they have a great against the spread record, they should not be a pooch after knocking off Atlanta at home last week. Or should they? When a team gets hot they are more likely to be overvalued and the number by their name (favorite or underdog) is always leveraged against them. Heavy action on this dog may actually push the line to a friendlier price even if the line itself seems to be expanding in Cincy’s favor. Cincinnati plays better at home than they do on the road. Nevertheless, they have played well on the road the last two weeks. Despite Buffalo achieving two wins against two very good football teams, there is a lack of faith they can extend their winning streak to three. This is no mistake by this market or a gift to commemorate the beginning of Fall. Therefore, we will go ahead and swallow the points.

KEITH’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: CINCINNATI -3. Bet your pick for this game using your credit card at an online bookie where it WILL work for deposits and where you'll receive a generous 50% signup bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $250! (Example: Deposit $250 and they'll give you an extra $250 FREE!) Find this great offer at Bovada Sportsbook.

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