Buffalo Bills (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS) vs. New York Jets (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS),
4:15 p.m. EST, Sunday, October 18, 2009, Giants Stadium, East
Rutherford, N.J., TV: CBS
by Badger of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Bills +10/Jets -10
Over/Under: 38
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The New York Jets will try and hold onto whatever glimmer of the shooting star moniker they still have when they return home to Giants Stadium in New Jersey to host their one-win AFC East rival Buffalo Bills Sunday afternoon on CBS.
The Jets surprise 3-0 start has now turned into a 3-2 start after another disappointing performance in Monday’s 31-27 loss at Miami. Head coach Rex Ryan and his exciting blitz-heavy defense, the unit largely responsible for the Jets fast start, took the blame after it was gouged for 413 yards by the Dolphins and failed to register a sack or a turnover in the last-minute loss.
But even with back-to-back losses, at least the Jets are not the Buffalo Bills right now.
The Bills are putting the fun in dysfunctional so far in 2009, struggling to a 1-4 start that was capped off Sunday by their worst performance of the season yet, a 6-3 loss at home to the Cleveland Browns.
The Bills have become a circus sideshow act since the day the signed Terrell Owens, which included the firing of their offensive coordinator a week before the season. Now the next axe to fall may come down on head coach Dick Jauron if the Bills don’t play inspired football against the Jets on Sunday.
Oddsmakers opened the point spread in this game with the Jets as double-digit 10-point favorites, and the number has since dropped to 9.5-point favorites at most of the offshore sportsbooks on the Web. Although there are still plenty of books that still list the Jets at minus-10 points and even one (betED) that lists it at -10.5.
The over/under total for this game opened at 38 and has held for the most part during early wagering at the window. A few places have lowered it down the hook to 37.5, but a large majority of sportsbooks still list the total at 38 on their board.
Fans of offensive fireworks should probably find a different game to watch on Sunday, because this game features one offense led by a rookie quarterback and another one lost at sea with a first-time coordinator (Alex Van Pelt) still getting his feet wet.
On paper, the Bills have no excuse in the world to be the 25th-ranked unit overall (296.6 ypg). Not with Marshawn Lynch and Freddy Jackson taking carries from Trent Edwards, with a little of play-action to Lee Evans or Owens mixed in on early downs. Simple, right?
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The Bills are struggling to get Owens and Evans the ball in general (179 ypg passing – 25th), and it’s equal parts bad scheme and bad quarterback play (Edwards 58 comp%., 5 TD-6 INT) to blame for the problems.
The Jets are keeping things fairly easy for the rookie Mark Sanchez on offense, using a strong offensive line and running backs Thomas Jones and Leo Washington to run the ball early and often (132 ypg – 7th). Sanchez has thrown five picks, and the passing game is still early in its development (167.6 ypg – 28th), so the Bills could force the issue on defense and stack the line of scrimmage.
That is, if the Bills can find anyone left on the roster to play defense. The Bills lost two linebackers, Kawika Mitchell and Marcus Buggs, to season-ending injury last week. That’s on top of losing their best corner (Leodis McKelvin), their top safety (Donte Whitner) and starting middle linebacker (Paul Posluszny) to injury already. Whitner is possible to return this week, but the unit is fix-a-flat for the rest of the season for sure.
The Jets swept the season series last year, stealing a 26-17 victory on the road as 5-point underdogs, so the Jets will be looking to make it three in a row on Sunday. The Jets also won the game at home in Giants Stadium last year, 31-27, but it was the Bills that covered the point spread as 9-point underdogs.
The Bills had a three-game win streak prior to then, winning and covering three straight and running up a 7-3 ATS record in the last 10 games overall. Buffalo is also 4-1 ATS in their last five visits to New York.
There are a few long-term betting trends on this game that look promising if you play the trend game. The underdog has enjoyed good success in the past, going 19-7 ATS in the last 26 games.
The over is also a solid 6-2-1 in the last nine games overall in the series.
Badger’s Pick: At some point the Bills will finally put things together on offense, and you can bet that Jauron is going to use his best Gipper speech to bring it out on Sunday. I like the Bills plus the points here, but I think the best bet is the over in this game. I’m taking the over of 38 (or 37.5 if you can get it).
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