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Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills Point Spread - Pick ATS

Denver Broncos (2-0 SU, 1-0-1 ATS) vs. Buffalo Bills (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS)
NFL Week 3
Date/Time: Sunday, September 24, 2017 at 1PM EST
Where: New Era Field, Buffalo, New York
TV: CBS
by Scott, Expert Football Handicapper, Predictem.com

Point Spread: DEN -3/BUF +3
Over/Under Total: 40

The Denver Broncos look to make it 3-0 to start the season when they come take on the Buffalo Bills at New Era Field on Sunday. Buffalo started with a nice home win over the Jets, before coming down to earth in a 9-3 loss to the Panthers last Sunday. Things have started out really well for the Broncos. After a dramatic win in week one over the Chargers, they smoked the Dallas Cowboys, 42-17. They now take to the road for the first time in the young season and hope for good results in Buffalo.

The Bills are under new leadership with Sean McDermott at the helm. The first two results have been decent, as the Bills have covered the spread in both games. Their 21-12 win over the Jets offered some promise and they definitely held their own in losing to the Panthers on the road only 9-3. Alas, they’d like to get more out of their offense, but their defense has shined in allowing just 21 combined points in their first two games.

With only ten first downs and 176 yards of total offense last week, the Bills look for more this week at home. But a Denver defense might not be the ideal group with which a struggling offense generally improves. QB Tyrod Taylor was held to very little in the passing game and unable to spring any big plays with his feet. Running back LeSean McCoy was very quiet with only 12 yards on 9 attempts. There were a lot of three-and-outs and the O-line was dominated in spots by Carolina’s defensive line. Making matters worse, LT Cordy Glenn was injured and is listed as day-to-day.

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With McDermott’s handiwork already evident, the Buffalo defense has a lot of good things going for it and has started the season in fine form. Against the Jets, they allowed just twelve points before relinquishing only three Carolina field goals in a tough road spot where they were out of their element. Through two games, DE Jerry Hughes has made a big impact and had two sacks on Sunday. Marcel Dareus on the inside is a force with Kyle Williams. Safety Jordan Poyer had a sack, as well, along with Eddie Yarbrough and Shaq Lawson also getting to Cam Newton. Their linebacker play is tough with Preston Brown, Ramon Humber, and Lorenzo Alexander. And in terms of pass-defense, they have been seeing good play from Poyer, EJ Gaines, Micah Hyde, and Tre’Davious White. Two games are a small window of time and the Jets and Panthers aren’t the most electrifying offenses, but their play is nevertheless a good sign and something upon which to build.

While some may have suspected that the Cowboys would have a tough time in Denver, not many thought the Broncos would win in such lopsided fashion, 42-17. The offense looked crisp being commandeered by QB Trevor Siemian, with CJ Anderson running with a purpose so far this season. Those who though the Broncos would continue to drift more toward irrelevancy this season have been forced to reassess.

Siemian threw for four touchdowns on Sunday, looking as good as ever. Last season, the offense was handcuffed by inconsistent play from their running backs. After another good game by CJ Anderson where he gained 118 yards on the ground, along with some good early signs from Jamaal Charles, the run-game looks a lot better. This is an offense that could really use that dimension and so far, it has enhanced the aerial game. On Sunday, Siemian connected well with his two top receivers—Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Again, a two-game timeframe is not enough to get carried away making concrete judgments, but the offense looks more-capable this season.

In addition to being really stout, the Denver defense tapped into some its playmaking dimension on Sunday. Von Miller was active and had two sacks. Aqib Talib took an interception and ran it back 103 yards for a TD, while Chris Harris, Jr. also had another one. Up-front, they made it so Ezekiel Elliott had his worst ever game, with an unsightly 8 yards on 9 runs, while the pass-rush made him look really bad. Overall, they held the Dallas offense to only 268 yards total. It’s a complete defense and still one of the best in the league.

These are one of those games where a person might take Denver on the basis of them simply being the better team and then look up at the score in the second quarter and start to realize the pitfalls of assuming everything would go off without a hitch. Denver’s offense showed good signs on Sunday, but was probably made to look a little better than it really is. Also, the Buffalo defense has been looking really good and should be highly-competent at home. Buffalo scoring a lot of points against this defense doesn’t seem that likely, either, but I see the Bills making enough problems for Denver overall and covering the spread.

Scott's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Buffalo Bills plus three points. Where are you betting this game? Does your bookie give you the the option to bet on games at -105 odds? NO! He's charging you -110 (or more!) Sports betting is a game of edges. Don't let the house get the edge on you! Start betting at discounted odds TODAY at 5Dimes Sportsbook!

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