Denver Broncos (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) vs. San Diego Chargers (1-4 SU, 3-2 ATS)
NFL Week 6
Date/Time: Thursday, October 13, 2016 at 8:25PM EST
Where: Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, California
by Scott, Expert Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: DEN -3/SD +3
Over/Under Total: 45
The Denver Broncos come to Qualcomm Stadium for an AFC West battle with the San Diego Chargers on Thursday Night Football. Neither team was able to win in week five. The Broncos, with rookie Paxton Lynch making his first NFL start, were beaten 23-16 by the resurgent Falcons at home. They look to get back on the winning track against their longtime division rival Chargers. San Diego keeps inventing new and innovative ways to lose, when a bungled FG attempt late spoiled yet another possible win in a 34-31 loss to the Raiders on Sunday. Can they finally close out a game this week maybe?
One shouldn’t get so caught up in Denver losing. First of all, the Falcons are pretty tricky; a diverse offensive team that can test even the most robust defenses. And Denver still allowed just 23 points to an Atlanta team that had been flying up and down the field in recent games. Looking back, with Trevor Siemian out of action, it was perhaps their time to hit a little lull. For a Super Bowl champion, they have still shown more urgency than most teams in that spot. It’s just that it looks like it does actually matter who their QB is. And while Lynch is undeniably a quality NFL prospect, he’s currently very raw and it was easy to see how Siemian had won the starting job.
Siemian was somewhat of a surprising late-week scratch, with the A.C. joint on his non-throwing shoulder still hurting from getting slammed to the turf a few weeks ago in Denver’s win at Tampa. Before he was injured, he had started to become more comfortable and the Broncos turned him loose more, as he made an increased connection with his aerial crew. Without him, the Denver offense was lackluster to say the least, scoring a scant 3 points until the fourth quarter on Sunday. Two scores in the games’ final 2 and half minutes made it look closer than it really was. And with a first-time starter, that’s a good time for the O-line to step up and they didn’t really support Lynch. Vic Beasley alone had 3.5 sacks and the line was unable to spring anything resembling a solid run-game.
STOP WASTING YOUR MONEY FELLAS! DUMP YOUR OVER-PRICED BOOKIE TODAY AND START WAGERING ON GAMES AT ONLY -105 AT THE WEB'S BEST! --> 5DIMES!
The Denver defense was not at its best on Sunday, troubled by the Atlanta option approach. Then again, if allowing 23 points to a team that has been torching opponents is rock-bottom, they’ll take it. Still, they were off-balance for most of the afternoon. Other than Von Miller and Shane Ray registering sacks, the defense wasn’t able to make a great impact. They allowed big days to Tevin Coleman and Devonta Foreman. While Julio Jones, who had 300 yards receiving the previous week, was kept in check, Atlanta doesn’t rely on any one person. Again, holding Atlanta to 372 yards and 2-for-12 on third downs is pretty good for what has been the low point for this defense.
The Chargers are a tough team in which to be a fan, throwing away 4 games that easily could have been wins. Granted, a bungled FG attempt only kept them from tying the game on Sunday, but it was just another bad development in season that’s been packed with them. Perhaps it would be worse if they were just a bad team that lost games outright. But at 1-4, they have been in all these games. They’ve covered 3 out of 5 spreads and are pretty dangerous for a one-win team.
Against Oakland, it was a back and forth contest. Late in the third, it was 24-16 Chargers, but it quickly became 34-24 Oakland after the Raiders went on a spurt. San Diego responded in the 4th quarter on offense, which is a positive development. A touchdown and stop put them in a position to tie or win the game. The first problem was how they seemed to resign themselves to a FG attempt rather than really gun for the win. In FG position for a short kick, a few safe run plays ensued to set up the kick. After muffing a punt that put Oakland in great position, rookie punter Drew Kaser was unable to hold the snap and that was it.
Again, it spoils what could be a good conversation about all the good things the Chargers are doing—namely how Philip Rivers has kept this offense dangerous despite losing the bulk of their anticipated production. Melvin Gordon has yet to become the consistent producer in the backfield, but he is better this season and had a score on Sunday. Role receivers like Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin have both been forced to do more and both had 117 yards receiving on Sunday. The tight end duo of Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry is shaping up nicely, though we’re starting to see the affects of age and wear on Gates.
The Chargers defense didn’t shine against the Raiders in a tough road spot. They were effective in spots, but they sometimes allow quick bursts of points in a short period of time. They are more of an impact-making group than in years past, though injuries have robbed them of some of their venom. Top draft pick Joey Bosa showed his upside in his first game, registering two sacks, which is a very positive development on a “D” that hasn’t had many this season.
This isn’t really a great time for the short week for either team after punishing losses on Sunday. Which team can turn around and be ready for this matchup? Will the pass-rush for the Chargers start taking off this week and get to Siemian with that bum shoulder? Can the Chargers offense get off against a Denver “D” that will be looking to get back to its shutdown form of this season? Will late-game issues again poison the Chargers’ efforts? A lot of questions are abound and I’m inclined to take the points with the Chargers at home on the short week.
Scott's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the San Diego Chargers plus 3 points.
Bet your pick for this game using your credit card at an online bookie where it WILL work for deposits and where you'll receive a generous 50% signup bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $500! (Example: Deposit $500 and they'll give you an extra $250 FREE!) Find this great offer at Bovada Sportsbook.
Need some help with your handicapping? Our NFL betting tips will help the begineer to novice bettor improve their bottom line.
Editor's Picks - Each week our in house pro's tackle the week's card and make predictions on the week's games ATS! Best bets, top plays, premium selections, etc. FREE!
Expert NFL Picks - Free premium plays from the "real" expert football handicappers from around the web. Don't fall for second rate picks from ESPN, the NFL Network, Hank Goldberg or the screaming touts on TV.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We forecast the loudest barking dog of the week. Expect a 60% winning percentage with these plays.
Favorite of the Week Play - We examine "the chalk" and determine the safest bet in which who you should lay the points with. Forecasting winning favorites long term isn't easy, but we've had some pretty good luck with it over the years.
Line Movement Plays - We report all the major line moves from the gridiron and forecast whether it's public money or sharp action causing the move. Who will cover the spread this week? Our line move plays!
NFL Consensus Picks - See what the general public is betting on. We use this info to fade the public to the tune of big profits over the course of the season.
Bookies Picks - Each week, we'll post which side the bookies are on. Please note: These are not OUR picks. We're simply reporting the teams the bookies need to cover the spread in order for them to win. Games receiving equal action on both sides will not be factored into these records.
Office Pool Picks - You asked for it and you got it! Each week, we'll post our predictions to win each game straight up so that you can RULE your pick'em league!
NFL Trends - Don't ever let anybody tell you that the trend is your friend. These picks make great fades which is exactly what we do with them.
NFL Computer Picks - We enter the statistics into the database and the computer crunches the numbers and gives final score predictions. These should be used for entertainment only!
Monday Night Football Picks - The ultimate bailout play. Our MNF picks are golden and have hit 62% or better 3 out of the past 4 years. (Last season was a disaster!) Did we mention that their FREE?
2016 NFL Predictions - Badger breaks down each division and gives his picks on which teams he thinks will win the AFC and NFC Conferneces (plus Super Bowl winner prediction).
Super Bowl Picks - Everybody here in the Predictem office takes their best preseason shot at predicting the winner Superbowl 50. Pride is on the line here! Oh, and LOOT too!
5Dimes - Bet your NFL football picks at -105 odds every day of the week! 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Pleasers and huge point buying opportunities as well!
Bovada - Tired of deposit hassles? Bet on football using your credit card at a sportsbook where your Visa CAN and WILL work for deposits! Offers a 50% sign-up bonus up to $250 FREE!
MyBookie - Credit cards work GREAT here! Get a massive 50% bonus up to $1000 in free cash!
Bookmaker - Watch the game for a bit THEN make a wager! Yes! You can jump in after the action has started using their awesome live betting feature! Get a massive 50% bonus up to $300 in FREE bonus cash OR take advantage of their enormous 15% bonus up to $2500 in free cash! The best sportsbook for highrollers!
Super Bowl Betting - We explain all the different types of wagers you can making including point spread bets, totals, moneylines and prop bets. No need to go to Vegas! You can bet the big game online!
Weekly Fantasy Football - If you drafted a crappy team or the injury bug has bit you and wrecked your season, we've got something really cool to turn you on to that will change the way you play fantasy sports forever!
Famous Football Quotes - From the inspirational to the greatest touchdown calls of all time. We've got them!
Pro Football Hall of Fame - A full list of NFL players who have been inducted into the NFL HOF.
The Spread - Offers free NFL football predictions, matchups, stats including both offensive and defensive and more!
Fantasy Football Sites - Get recommendations on where to find weekly updated player news, depth charts and legit websites that offer the best stat and record tracking for your fantasy football league.