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Denver Broncos (6-8) +8.5, 47 O/U at San Diego Chargers (9-5) -8.5,
47 O/U, Qualcomm Stadium, 7 PM Eastern, Monday
by Badger of Predictem.com
A few weeks ago the Denver Broncos trip to Qualcomm Stadium to meet their AFC West rival San Diego Chargers on Monday Night Football looked like it was going to be a pivotal game with playoff importance. That is not the case anymore as the Chargers clinched the AFC West crown last weekend, the same weekend the Broncos were officially eliminated from the dance.
But that doesn't mean it still won't be a game worth watching, or betting on, especially since it's on Christmas Eve.
The Chargers (9-5) have been on a major roll and are starting to look like the team they were last season, not the one that struggled early under first-year head coach Norv Turner. San Diego has won four games in a row, five of their last six, and eight of their last 10. Last week their roll gained full downhill steam with an impressive 51-14 ass whooping of the Detroit Lions.
The Broncos (6-8) are young and inconsistent, and it shows up vividly week-to-week. Two weeks ago they looked like world-beaters, pounding the Kansas City Chiefs, 41-7. Then last week they looked clueless in an embarrassing and disappointing loss to Houston, 31-13.
San Diego’s offense still suffers from the inconsistent play of quarterback Phillip Rivers, as he has thrown nearly as many interceptions (15) as touchdowns (18) this season. It’s not a coincidence that the Chargers have surged behind the running of LaDainian Tomlinson. Tomlinson has hit 100 yards four weeks in a row and now has 1,311 yards for the season with 14 TD's. With him taking the pressure off of Rivers, the quarterback has been able to find Antonio Gates more often. For the season the Chargers are 20th overall on offense (318.4 ypg), 7th on the ground (126.6 ypg) and 6th in scoring at 25.6 points per game.
Denver’s inconsistency on offense all leads back to their young quarterback, Jay Cutler. Cutler (3,096 yds., 64.6 comp%) makes throws that remind many Broncos fans of their hero John Elway. Then a few plays later he throws into coverage and leaves fans and coach Mike Shannahan scratching their heads (18 TD's, 12 INT's). The Broncos running game still ranks 8th in the NFL (124.1 ypg), but it has struggled lately. Denver’s problems can be summed up easily: they are 6th in total yards (353.9), but just 17th in scoring (21.1). They move the ball well, but don't punch it in the end zone.
The Chargers defense has played well lately despite missing two important cogs of the unit, tackle Luis Castillo and linebacker Shawn Merriman. Both players are listed as questionable Monday with cranky knees. As a whole the unit ranks 16th overall (327.4 yards per game) and 9th in points allowed at 18.9 per game.
Denver has improved a little on defense during the season, but they are still getting gouged by the run too much (140.2 ypg – 29th). Their strong pass defense (6th – 196.2 ypg) hardly matters when they can't stop the other teams from cranking out yards on the run. They also give up big plays, which results in touchdowns, as the Denver defense is 30th in points allowed at 26.2 per game.
San Diego won the previous meeting between these two back on October 7th, 41-3. The Chargers swept both meetings last season too, covering the spread in all three games.
Speaking of covering the spread, the Chargers are 9-5 ATS this season and sport a strong 7-1 ATS record in their last eight games versus an AFC opponent. They have covered in all four games during their winning streak, have covered in all but one of their home games this season (6-1 ATS), and have an equally strong 16-5-3 ATS record versus AFC West rivals in their last 24 tries.
Denver is the exact opposite for sports bettors, as their 4-10 ATS record indicates. They have only covered the number once in their last four games, and are just 2-9 ATS versus teams with a winning record. They do have a few betting trends that are favorable though. The Broncos have gone over nine of their last 10 games versus AFC teams, and have also gone over the total in seven of their last eight games in December.
It’s still early, so oddsmakers at the Las Vegas sportsbooks haven't had to move the line too much yet. The Chargers have dropped from a 9- point favorite when it opened to an 8.5-point favorite currently. The total of 47 hasn't moved at all, as most books including the online sportsbooks have yet to get enough public money on the number to cause them to adjust it.
Badger’s Pick: On paper this looks like easy picking's. LaDainian Tomlinson versus one of the NFL’s weakest run defenses looks like an easy one for the Chargers. But something in my gut screams it just won't be that easy. Denver has a few extra days to prepare (they played last Thursday), and they need to save face for such a weak performance on a national stage (alright, somewhat national stage, the NFL Network isn't quite the same audience). Plus, the Broncos would love to screw their AFC West rivals out of a higher playoff seed. I still think the Chargers win, but not by such a large number. Take the Broncos plus the points.
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