Denver Broncos (8-6 SU, 8-6 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (10-4 SU, 7-6-1 ATS)
NFL Week 16
Date/Time: Sunday, December 25, 2016 at 8:30 PM EST
Where: Arrowhead Stadium
by Chad Holloway, Expert Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread:DEN +3.5/KC -3.5
Over/Under Total: 38
Here’s how things stand in the AFC West. The Oakland Raiders have secured a Playoff spot for the first time since 2002. This week, they can clinch the division and a first-round bye if they win and the Kansas City Chiefs lose to the Denver Broncos. Regardless, the Chiefs seem destined for a Wildcard spot – they clinch a berth either with a win or a Baltimore loss/tie. That leaves the Broncos on the outside looking in at the No. 6 seed (currently held by the Miami Dolphins), which is the prize at the end of a hotly-contested race.
The Broncos seem to be on the skids right now having lost four of six, including last week’s match in which they held the New England Patriots to 16 points but only scored three points themselves. That led to a publicized locker-room riff between the offense and defense. If they hope to rebound, they need to find unity and to strike a balance.
The Broncos enter Week 16 with the 24th-ranked offense averaging 326.7 total yards per game (YPG) and 21.4 points per game (PPG). Their rushing game is just 27th averaging 91.3 YPG, while their passing game is a bit better at 18th averaging 235.4 YPG. Defensively, the Broncos are second best in the NFL holding opponents to an average of 310.9 total YPG (183 passing YPG and 127.9 rushing YPG) and 18.4 PPG.
As for the Chiefs, who are coming off a last-second loss to the Tennessee Titans, their offense averages 331.4 YPG and 22.8 PPG, which puts them 23rd in the league. Their passing game is 22nd averaging 230.9 YPG, while their rushing game is 23rd averaging 100.6 YPG. Defensively, the Chiefs come in 28th allowing an average of 375.1 total YPG (250.4 passing YPG and 124.7 rushing YPG) and 19.6 PPG.
By looking at these numbers, it’s kind of shocking the Chiefs are doing as well as they have. They’re one of the best teams in the league, yet they’re not even ranked in the top half of the league anywhere! Still, they’re finding ways to win and in all likelihood, will be competing in the postseason.
Chad Holloway's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: When these two teams met at the end of November, the Chiefs won 30-27 on the road. I like them to win again at home. Every week they play like a Playoff-caliber team, while the defending Super Bowl champs have floundered. Right now, it looks as if neither team from last year’s Super Bowl will make the Playoffs this year. That’s pretty crazy. Anyway, I’d bet the Chiefs to win ATS and for both teams to combine for enough points to cover the over.
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