Cleveland Browns vs. Philadelphia Eagles Preview and Pick

Cleveland Browns (4-9) +14, 38.5 O/U at Philadelphia Eagles (7-5-1) -14, 38.5 O/U, Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pa., 8:30 PM Eastern, Monday, ESPN
by Badger of Predictem.com

The Philadelphia Eagles look to continue their late-season playoff push when they host the Cleveland Browns between the white lines of Lincoln Financial Field on this week’s installment of Monday Night Football on ESPN.

Left for dead after an embarrassing 36-7 loss to the Baltimore Ravens three weeks ago, the Eagles have won two straight to climb back into the NFC playoff picture. Quarterback Donovan McNabb, who was benched at halftime of that Ravens game, has responded and rallied the Eagles to back-to-back impressive wins over NFC playoff teams, including last week’s solid 20-14 victory over the first-place New York Giants and a 48-20 whoopin’ of Arizona on Thanksgiving Day.

The Browns are in a free-fall, having lost three in a row and five of their last six games. They’ve been forced to play their third-string quarterback due to injury to their top two choices, their defense continues to fade away in the fourth quarter of every game, and head coach Romeo Crennel is just two games away from being shown the door and put out of his misery.

The sportsbooks are expecting a lopsided affair as the Eagles opened the game as large 14-point favorites at home. The number has held too, as it seems nobody with money to burn wants to wager it on the Browns these days. The total opened at 38 and has moved up to 38.5 or even a few 39s at some of the larger offshore sportsbooks. The moneyline lists the Eagles at -800, while the Browns are large +600 underdogs.

McNabb has displayed his old form the past few weeks since head coach Andy Reid shocked the world by benching him in favor of backup Kevin Kolb against Baltimore. Although, it was a prototypical NFC East power running game that sparked the Eagles to their upset win over the Giants last week.

Brian Westbrook ran for 131 yards and a touchdown on a season-high 35 carries, and caught 72 more yards and the game-winning score in the passing game to top 200 total yards by himself in the Giants game. McNabb only had 30 attempts in the game (19-of-30 for 191 yards), which may signal a change in the Eagle’s offensive scheme by Reid that has been extremely pass-happy to start the season. Overall the Eagles are the league’s 7th-ranked offense (354.8 ypg), 5th in the passing game (249.5 ypg) and 6th in points scored each week (26.1 ppg).

The Browns offense played their first game with third-stringer Ken Dorsey at the helm last week, but the overall results were typical of their season-long struggles on that side of the ball. The Browns haven’t scored an offensive touchdown in 13 quarters now, and while Dorsey was less than spectacular in his first start since 2006 (22- of-43, 150 yards, INT), it’s hard to lay all the blame on him when the running game only gains 35 yards on just 19 carries. Defensively the Eagles and coordinator Jim Johnson have turned up the heat the past few weeks. They “held” Arizona’s Kurt Warner to 235 yards passing and picked him off three times the week before, and last week they limited Eli Manning and the Giants to 123 yards passing, although there were several drops by Giants receivers in the game that would have changed that number drastically.

The one thing the Eagles defense does do well is defend the run (93.1 ypg – 8th). Last week they became really the only team this season that stopped the heralded Giants running game, limiting them to just 88 yards rushing.

The Browns defense has followed the same theme all season long, play strong for three quarters only to wear down and give up in the fourth quarter. They give up a ton of yards on the ground (148.5 ypg – 28th) as teams grind it out to close out the game. Last week the Tennessee Titans ran all over them for 235 yards, so expect more of the same this week with the Eagle’s renewed emphasis on the running game.

These two teams haven’t met on the field in the regular season since 2004, a game the Eagles won 34-31 in overtime in Cleveland. Since the 1999 season the Eagles have won three of the four games played between the two teams, including the only game played in Philly (30-17 in 1999), but the Browns have covered the spread in three of the four games including the 2004 overtime game as 7.5-point underdogs.

All four of the previous meetings went over the total, which is direct conflict with most of the betting trends in this game. Both teams are 6-7 versus the total in 2008 so far, and the under is 13-6 in Cleveland’s last 19 games overall. The under is also a solid 6-2 in Philly’s last eight home games and it’s a moneymaking 13-6-2 in Philly’s last 21 games on the showcase of Monday Night Football.

Badger’s Pick: The Browns best game of the season, by far, was their 35-14 victory over the Giants last time they were on Monday Night Football. While some of the talent is gone, there’s still something to be said about the Browns players and their ability to turn it on in front of the world on MNF. Philly may get caught looking past the weakened Browns too (they play Washington and Dallas to finish the season). Philly wins, but Cleveland finds some way to cover two touchdowns. Take Cleveland plus 14 points here.

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