Cleveland Browns (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) vs. Washington Redskins (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)
NFL Week 4
October 2nd 2016 /Time: 1 PM EST
Where: FedEx Field Landover, MD
by Jason Green, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Redskins -7.5
Over/Under Total: 45.5
The Redskins scored a HUGE win in their last game beating the Giants on the road with a pick late in the game to seal the win. Kirk Cousins has been erratic on the season, but he has put up some solid numbers and he has many weapons. The Skins are a 7.5-point home favorite this Sunday facing a winless Browns’ team that did show some life in their last game.
Last week the Redskins beat the Giants 27-23 and the Browns lost to the Miami Dolphins 30-24 in OT with each team covering the spread on the road. This season the Redskins are 0-2 at home and the Browns are 0-2 on the road so something has got to give in this non-conference match up.
The Browns are winless, but their last two games have been close and they lost in OT last week. OK, so their defense has been far from stellar this season, ranking tied for 25th giving up an average of 28 ppg, but in their loss to the Dolphins they did rack up 430 yards, 261 in the air and 169 on the ground. They used their 3rd QB of the season in rookie Cody Kessler, who was solid and will get the start this Sunday in the Nation’s Capital.
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One thing the Browns have going for them is that the Skins have struggled on defense so far on the season, not ranking in the top 23 against the pass or the run, and their secondary is thin with recent injuries. Kessler is not playing with a great WR corps, but they stepped up in the Miami loss and face a struggling Skins pass defense.
One of the surprises for the Browns is they have a legit rushing offense ranking 4th in the league in rushing yards per game. That is most due to the play of Isaiah Crowell, who ranks 2nd in the NFL in rushing yards and is averaging 6.1 yards per carry. The Browns will try to establish the run early and if the Skins can keep that from happening they will be in good shape. Cleveland will be facing a Washington team that gave up 337 passing yards and 120 rushing yards in the win over the Giants.
Cousins has been up and down this season, but in the big win over New York he passed for 296 yards with 2 TD and he was not picked off. He has no lack of targets led by big-play WR DeSean Jackson and emerging star TE Jordan Reed. Cleveland only ranks 24th in the league in pass defense and their secondary will really have their hands full in this game.
Cousins has had to do most of the work on the offensive side of the football since the rushing offense has been less than stellar. Matt Jones leads the team with 150 rushing yards and they have to run the ball in this game to keep the defense honest. The Browns rank tied for 18th in the league defending the run and they gave up 115 yards on the ground in the Miami loss.
The Browns are only 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games and overall they are only 3-10 ATS. While the Redskins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games facing a team with a losing record they are only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. The last time these teams played it was in 2012 when the Skins beat the Browns and covered the spread.
With how the Redskins have played D this season I do not see them blowing out the Browns. However, Cousins will have another big game and Washington will win and cover the 7.5-point spread moving to 2-2 in the process.
Jason’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Redskins -7.5
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