Buffalo Bills (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) vs. Cleveland Browns (0-2 SU, 1-0-1 ATS)
NFL Week 3
Date/Time: 1:00 PM ET, September 23, 2012
Where: Cleveland Browns Stadium, Cleveland, OH
by Jason Green, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Buf -3/Cle +3
Over/Under Total: 43.5
Bet the Buff/Cleve game at a sportsbook that's currently offering a "deposit $100, get $100 free" and where your Visa card will work for deposits: GTBets.
After really struggling in their pro debuts the Cleveland Browns 2 first round draft picks of Brandon Weeden and Trent Richardson played pretty well even though Cleveland lost to the Bengals. Hey, you never know, maybe there is hope in Cleveland. The Buffalo Bills got in the W column last week and while C.J. Spiller is off to a fast start leading the league in rushing yards the Buffalo defense has really struggled.
last week the Bills were at home and beat the Kansas City Chiefs 35-17 and the Browns were on the road and lost to the Cincinnati Bengals 34-27.
Hope is not a word that has been associated with the Browns for the last several seasons, but after their 2 rookies played well against the Bengals that may change. Weeden got over his horrible debut by passing for 322 yards and 2 TD in the loss to Cincy. He looked good even though the Browns have a pretty weak WR corps. He will have a decent game, but not a big one, as the Bills had 5 sacks last week and they will come after the rookie QB from the get go.
Richardson had his first 100+ rushing game in the Cincy loss, but he will not get his 2nd one this week. The Bills have struggled to defend the run, ranked 24th in the league, but they have not given up over 100 yards to a single back and that will be the case in this game.
YOU'RE WASTING MONEY IF YOU'RE LAYING -110 ON FOOTBALL GAMES. DO THE WISE THING AND MAKE THE SWITCH TO -105 TODAY. YOU'LL BE SO GLAD THAT YOU DID! FIND THIS KILLER OFFER AT 5DIMES
Bills' RB C.J. Spiller is off to a blazing start this season leading the league in rushing yards and he galloped for 123 yards last week averaging a legit 8.2 yards per carry. The Browns held Cincy's run game in check, but allowed over 100 yards on the ground to LeSean McCoy in their season opener. The Browns front line D will see Spiller early and often and he will rush for over 100 yards for the 3rd straight game.
The Browns pass defense ranks 28th in the league and Cincy QB Andy Dalton torched them last week. That has to be a good feeling for Bills' QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and while the Harvard grad only had 178 passing yards last week he did have 2 TD and 0 INT. He will not have a big game, but play well since Spiller will get a ton of action. On top of that Cleveland is still without CB Joe Haden because of suspension and the secondary is really banged up.
The betting trends for this AFC match up do not look good for the Bills, as they are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games and 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. On top of that they covered last week and are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win. OK yeah, the Browns have been one of the worst teams in the league for the last couple of seasons, but they are still 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games. In a couple of very interesting betting trends Buffalo has an O/U record of 5-0 in their last 5 games and Cleveland has an O/U record of 0-6 in their last 6 home games.
Jason's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: This is a rough spot for the Bills. They don't have chit for defense and their going into Cleveland against a Browns team that is building confidence. The Bills really have no answer for Trent Richardson. He'll get some big runs and it'll force the defense to respect the run. Then Weeden, a marginal QB at best, will look good finding open targets, leading to easy scores. Trent Richardson is real deal folks. I like the Browns to come out on top in a high scoring game between to teams that will go back to being mediocre after looking good against each other.
Need some help with your handicapping? Our NFL betting tips will help the begineer to novice bettor improve their bottom line.
Preseason Picks - Many don't realize that there's good value in NFL preseason picks! They claim "how can you bet on a game when you don't know who is going to play?" Truth be told, many head coaches tell you how much playing time key players will receive prior to the game!
Editor's Picks - Each week our in house pro's tackle the week's card and make predictions on the week's games ATS! Best bets, top plays, premium selections, etc. FREE!
Expert NFL Picks - Free premium plays from the "real" expert football handicappers from around the web. Don't fall for second rate picks from ESPN, the NFL Network, Hank Goldberg or the screaming touts on TV.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We forecast the loudest barking dog of the week. Expect a 60% winning percentage with these plays.
Favorite of the Week Play - We examine "the chalk" and determine the safest bet in which who you should lay the points with. Forecasting winning favorites long term isn't easy, but we've had some pretty good luck with it over the years.
Line Movement Plays - We report all the major line moves from the gridiron and forecast whether it's public money or sharp action causing the move. Who will cover the spread this week? Our line move plays!
NFL Consensus Picks - See what the general public is betting on. We use this info to fade the public to the tune of big profits over the course of the season.
Bookies Picks - Each week, we'll post which side the bookies are on. Please note: These are not OUR picks. We're simply reporting the teams the bookies need to cover the spread in order for them to win. Games receiving equal action on both sides will not be factored into these records.
Office Pool Picks - You asked for it and you got it! Each week, we'll post our predictions to win each game straight up so that you can RULE your pick'em league!
NFL Trends - Don't ever let anybody tell you that the trend is your friend. These picks make great fades which is exactly what we do with them.
NFL Computer Picks - We enter the statistics into the database and the computer crunches the numbers and gives final score predictions. These should be used for entertainment only!
Monday Night Football Picks - The ultimate bailout play. Our MNF picks are golden and have hit 62% or better 3 out of the past 4 years. (Last season was a disaster!) Did we mention that their FREE?
2016 NFL Predictions - Badger breaks down each division and gives his picks on which teams he thinks will win the AFC and NFC Conferneces (plus Super Bowl winner prediction).
Super Bowl Picks - Everybody here in the Predictem office takes their best preseason shot at predicting the winner Superbowl 50. Pride is on the line here! Oh, and LOOT too!
5Dimes - Bet your NFL football picks at -105 odds every day of the week! 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Pleasers and huge point buying opportunities as well!
Bovada - Tired of deposit hassles? Bet on football using your credit card at a sportsbook where your Visa CAN and WILL work for deposits! Offers a 50% sign-up bonus up to $250 FREE!
MyBookie - Credit cards work GREAT here! Get a massive 50% bonus up to $1000 in free cash!
Bookmaker - Watch the game for a bit THEN make a wager! Yes! You can jump in after the action has started using their awesome live betting feature! Get a massive 50% bonus up to $300 in FREE bonus cash OR take advantage of their enormous 15% bonus up to $2500 in free cash! The best sportsbook for highrollers!
Super Bowl Betting - We explain all the different types of wagers you can making including point spread bets, totals, moneylines and prop bets. No need to go to Vegas! You can bet the big game online!
Weekly Fantasy Football - If you drafted a crappy team or the injury bug has bit you and wrecked your season, we've got something really cool to turn you on to that will change the way you play fantasy sports forever!
Famous Football Quotes - From the inspirational to the greatest touchdown calls of all time. We've got them!
Pro Football Hall of Fame - A full list of NFL players who have been inducted into the NFL HOF.
The Spread - Offers free NFL football predictions, matchups, stats including both offensive and defensive and more!
Fantasy Football Sites - Get recommendations on where to find weekly updated player news, depth charts and legit websites that offer the best stat and record tracking for your fantasy football league.