Buffalo Bills (5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) at Dallas Cowboys (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS), Week 10 NFL, Sunday November 13th, 1:00 PM Eastern, Cowboys Stadium (Artificial Turf), Arlington Texas
By Jeff Hochman, Pro Handicapper, JH-Sportsline
Point Spread: Buf +5/DAL -5
Over/Under Total: 48
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The Buffalo Bills have alternated wins and losses since defeating New England on September 25th. And, they are coming off a loss to the New York Jets who completely dominated the second half of the game. Buffalo only gained 287 yards on offense which is a season-low. The Jets held the ball for 15 minutes more than Buffalo while racking up 126 rushing yards. Ryan Fitzpatrick completed just 15 passes for 191 yards 1 TD and 2 INT's. He will have to pick his game up because the Cowboys Tony Romo averages 277 passing yards per game for his career.
The Dallas Cowboys bounced back from their awful performance two weeks and defeated the Seahawks at home 23-13, as 11-point home favorites. They failed to cover and flew well under the posted total of 45. The Cowboys last four games have all stayed Under the total. Tony Romo was 19 of 31 for 279 yards, rookie DeMarco Murray turned 22 carries into 139 yards. He also caught 4 passes for 47 yards. Murray has proven that his 253-yard performance in his first career start was no fluke. He is the real deal. Whenever Felix Jones returns (this Sunday) from a high ankle sprain, he could find himself backing up the former third-round pick from OK. Felix will still get some carries as he is very talented too.
The difference between these two teams before the season started was that the Cowboys were supposed to be good and the Bills were supposed to be bad. The Bills have put together a solid 2011 season so far. In the Bills three losses this season, those teams are an impressive 17-7, but in the Bills five victories this season, those teams are a combined 19-21. This is the NFL and you never really know what your getting until it plays out. Dallas is 4-4 SU, but they are 7-1 In the stats this season. The Bills are just 3-5 In the stats through eight games.
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Dallas has played a somewhat soft schedule thanks in part to the NFC East being down this season. The only team the Cowboys had success with, who have a winning record is the San Francisco 49ers. But that was in Week two, which is 8 weeks ago. Sooner or later you would think a team that usually (7-1 ITS) out-gaines its opponent, they will start a long winning streak.
The Buffalo Bills will welcome back, former head coach for the Cowboys, Chan Gailey into a new building he has never been in. In two seasons with Dallas (1998 & 1999), Gailey was 18-14 and made the playoffs in both seasons. He is a very good coach and Buffalo is happy to have him. On the injury front for Dallas, Miles Austin will miss the next 2-4 weeks with a hamstring pull -- again. Seems like he is always hurt!
With Austin out, expect Laurent Robinson's playing time to increase. Robinson has managed to play well in his time on the field with Tony Romo and the first team offense. Robinson has hauled in a touchdown pass in each of the last two games, and has two 100+ yard games on his resume already this season. He has been a steal off the waiver wire. Luckily for Dallas, the injury to Austin might not hamper the Cowboys passing game, as the Bills are ranked No. 25 in pass defense, allowing over 260 yards per game through the air. It does look like Felix Jones is healthy enough to play and that should only help the running game as DeMarco Murray has proven to be a rising star. The Bills will need a new kicker becuase Rian Lindell was placed on IR this past Tuesday. That could be a factor in this game.
Defensively, the Cowboys will have to try to slow down Buffalo's run and gun offense, which features running back Fred Jackson and wide-out Steve Johnson. The Bills run a base three-wide receiver set offense. Fred Jackson has rushed for 803 yards on the season to go along with 391 receiving yards. Jackson has 6 rushing touchdowns which ranks sixth. The Cowboys do have some depth in the defensive backfield which should help in their quest of defeating the Bills.
In 2007 these two teams last met and saw Dallas win 25-24 as 9-point home chalk. Tony Romo threw 5 interceptions in that game, but did throw for over 300 yards. Trent Edwards was the QB of the Bills. I believe that was Romo's first or second career start. The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week ten. The Cowboys are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games in November. The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
The Bills are 3-9 SU and 3-9 ATS after a division game over the last three seasons. The Cowboys are 8-3 SU and 8-3 ATS in a home game when the total is between 45.5 AND 49 PTS.
Jeff's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Dallas Cowboys -5.
I will stay at home with the Cowboys as they are playing back-to-back home games off a SU home win. Dallas has been dynamite in this role since 2000, cashing 68% against the spread on the blind. The Bills are coming off a very physical game against AFC East rival New York Jets. I think Dallas is poised for a nice winning streak. Take Dallas minus the five!
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