Buffalo Bills (5-5 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) vs. New York Jets (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS), 1:00 p.m. EST, Week 12 NFL, Sunday, November 27, 2011, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J., TV: CBS
by Badger, Sports Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Buf +9.5/NYJ -9.5
Over/Under Total: 42
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Two teams trying desperately to get back into the AFC playoff picture will duel on Sunday in MetLife Stadium when the Buffalo Bills travel to face the New York Jets in an AFC East showdown on CBS.
If the playoffs were to start today, both teams would be on the outside looking in since their 5-5 records aren’t good enough to get them into a wild card spot in the AFC.
For the Jets that news comes as quite a shock, since their mouthy head coach Rex Ryan called them the Super Bowl frontrunners back in July. New York lost their second game in a row in last Thursday’s NFL Network special when they were Tebow-ed by the Denver Broncos, 17-13.
After talking about staying focused for the Broncos running game and trying not to get bored by run after run after run, that’s exactly what the Jets did in the final minutes as Tim Tebow ran QB draw left, QB draw right and QB draw up the middle and eventually scored the game-winner off a blown containment on a blitz with 58 seconds remaining in the game.
For the Bills, missing the playoffs wouldn’t be as much of a shock since nobody outside of their locker room expected them to get there anyway. But after rocketing out to a 5-2 start as one of the biggest surprises of the early NFL season, the Bills have come crashing back down to earth with three straight losses.
All three of the losses have been by huge margins too, including last weekend’s, 35-8, thumping at the hands of the AFC East rival Miami Dolphins. Buffalo’s once potent, high scoring offense has been AWOL for weeks now, as quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick threw two more interceptions and the Bills running game only rushed for 41 yards in Sunday’s loss.
The Bills three-game slide started with a 27-11 loss to these same Jets, so Sunday’s game will have an element of revenge to it for Buffalo. While the Jets will have to play with a sense of urgency to try and pick up the pieces of what was supposed to be another playoff-contending season.
The Bills appear to chum in the water these days, at least as far as the oddsmakers are concerned, since the set the opening point spread for Sunday’s rivalry game with the New York Jets as large 9-point favorites at home. Setting the number that high worked to get at least a few bettors on the Bills, since the number has come down to Jets minus -8 at a majority of the sportsbooks in Las Vegas and offshore.
The over/under total opened at 43 late on Sunday and has been dropping steadily ever since, first dropping to 42.5 and now all the way down to 42 by mid-week.
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Part of the Bills decline on offense can be traced back to a massive amount of injuries at just about every position. With Steve Johnson and David Nelson both nursing nagging injuries the Bills were forced to use running back C.J. Spiller at receiver on Sunday. But using Spiller may not be a possibility this week because running back Fred Jackson left the Dolphins game with a bum calf and is listed as questionable.
Plus, the interior of Bills offensive line has been a game of musical chairs since the loss of Eric Wood, with Andy Levitre, Chad Rinehart and Kraig Urbik all rotating around from center to guard to guard to center in recent weeks, which as you know doesn’t help to breed consistency or continuity.
All of this has placed a huge burden on Fitzpatrick, who appears to be folding under the pressure since he’s thrown 11 of his 14 interceptions over the last six weeks while only tossing 7 TDs over the same span.
The Jets offense has always been challenged and a little limited due to the growing curve of Mark Sanchez at quarterback, but without the Jets typical power running game hitting on all cylinders this season (96 ypg – 26th), the offense seems to be struggling to score points even more of late.
Receiver Plaxico Burress has become Sanchez’s favorite go-to guy of late (six TD), but Burress doesn’t like to go over the middle and doesn’t have the breakaway speed necessary to get separation on the outside, so he’s turned into a jump-ball candidate when the Jets get near the goal line in the red zone.
The Jets should be able to move the ball on the Bills defense, who are ranked 26th overall (372 ypg) and in scoring defense (25 ppg).
As good as the Jets defense can be at times (7th overall, 6th vs. the pass), they do give up their share of big plays as their 21 points per game average (18th) would indicate.
As mentioned earlier, the Jets have already beat the Bills once this season which is their fourth straight victory over them in the head-to-head series and their sixth in the last seven meetings. However, the lone Bills victory during that span was in 2009 in the form of a, 16-13, overtime victory by the Bills in New York (as 9.5-point underdogs).
The Jets have also covered the point spread in four straight meetings, covering in the role of the favorite with the exception of the earlier game this season in Buffalo.
That plays right along with the betting trends in this head-to-head series, since the road team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings and the underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. The Bills historically are a strong road team (9-4 ATS as road dog), but not this season since they are 0-3-1 in the last four road games overall and 1-3-1 ATS in their last five as a road dog.
Betting the over might be the best trend play this week. The over is 5-0-1 in the Bills last six road games, 6-0-1 in their last seven games as an underdog, and 8-2-1 in their last 11 games overall. The over is also 8-3 in the Jets last 11 games vs. the AFC East and 20-8 in their last 28 games overall.
Badger’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I don’t think the Jets are 9 points better than the Bills, but with all of the injuries the Bills have and the way they are playing themselves out of contention lately, I have a hard time backing the Bills with a clean conscience. In the end I think both teams will struggle, so I’m going to buck the trends and bet on the under. I’m taking the under of 42.5.
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