Buffalo Bills (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS) vs. New York Jets (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS)
NFL Week 3
Date and Time: Sunday, September 22, 4:30pm
Where: Metlife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
by Bob, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: BUF +2.5/NYJ -2.5
Over/Under Total: 40
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We have an AFC East match-up between two teams who both sit at .500 with 1-1 records. The Buffalo Bills will travel to New Jersey to take on the New York Jets. In my opinion both teams have looked better than expected, but then again, they have both lost close games to the New England Patriots. I am telling you now, those close calls will not look as impressive as the season plays out. The Patriots are not the same team, they have no offensive weapons right now other than their QB, Tom Brady. With that said, the Jets are a 2.5 favorite at home in this game, and I kind of see it going that way. Low scoring, down to the wire, whichever team doesn't make the big mistake will escape with the win.
Before the season started, I made a statement that the New York Jets may be the worst team in the NFL. I think I may have been wrong. Don't take that the wrong way, the Jets still aren't a "good" team, but they certainly are not terrible...not like Jacksonville. Rookie Quarterback, Geno Smith, hasn't done too bad filling in for Mark Sanchez so far. Well, by not too bad, I mean their passing game still stinks (ranked 25th in the NFL). Smith has made some pretty decent throws, but only has one touchdown and four interceptions to show for it. If Geno can cut down on the turnovers, he will be able to be a little more effective. What is holding this Jets team somewhat together is the defense. I got to admit, the New York D is pretty dang good. They are giving up under 50 yards per game on the ground which is good for 5th in the NFL, and only 180 yards passing per game which puts them in the top 10 in that category. This defense going up a against a rookie QB, could make things very uncomfortable for the Bills.
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The Buffalo Bills come into this game at 1-1, just like the Jets. Buffalo lost a nail biter to the Patriots in week one, then came back with a win in pretty much the same fashion against the Carolina Panthers. Buffalo and New York are very similar. They both have rookie quarterbacks, they both play good pass defense, and they both run the ball well. This game to me is a total toss up, which is apparent by the 2.5 point spread which could drop all the way to a "pick em" game by kickoff. EJ Manuel, the Bills starting QB, has done pretty well. The Bills rushing attack that is averaging over 140 yards per game so far is a safety net for him so far. Manuel has thrown 3 TDs to one INT so far this season and does appear to be getting comfortable as he learns and improves each week. The key to this game for the Bills, and really for both teams is to not turn the ball over. The team that protects the ball best will win.
Bob's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I am not going to pull stats against the spread, I am not going on series history since both teams have new QB's, and I am not going to play the whole what if game. I am keeping this simple. Who is the better TEAM right now? In my opinion it is the Buffalo Bills. I got this feeling Buffalo goes in and escapes with a 17-14, 17-13 type win. Take the Bills plus the 2.5.
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