Buffalo Bills (3-6 SU, 4-5 ATS) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS), Week 11 NFL, 1:00 p.m. EST, Sunday, November 22, 2009, Jacksonville Municipal Stadium, Jacksonville, Fla. TV: CBS
by Ryno of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Bills +9/Jaguars -9
Over/Under: 42.5
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The Jaguars needed a win on Sunday against the Jets to keep their playoff hopes alive, and they got that victory. Down by a point in the final minutes, Maurice Jones-Drew had an opportunity to score a touchdown and the Jets were happy allowing him to do so, but Jones-Drew made a wise decision and took a knee at the 1-yard line. The Jags were able to kill the clock and kick an easy game-winning field goal to win the game, 24-22.
Now, the Jaguars face the Buffalo Bills, a team that has plenty of ups and down this season, but mostly downs.
The Bills have lost two in a row to the Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans, each by at least 21 points. Coming off their bye week, the Bills lost 41-17 to the Titans. But the game was tied at 17 after the third quarter. That was until Chris Johnson took over, as well as the Titans defense, cruising to what ended up as an easy victory. Terrell Owens is once again unhappy, and the wheels could be falling off for the Bills. The Bills totaled 89 rushing yards, 48 by Fred Jackson and 37 by Marshawn Lynch, and Trent Edwards threw for 185 yards, a touchdown and an interception. The Bills threw the ball 36 times and only had 20 run plays.
Edwards has 1,170 passing yards, six touchdowns and seven interceptions in seven games this season. Jackson has 493 rushing yards, while Lynch has 254 yards in six games. Owens has just 26 receptions for the season, but one bit of good news is that Lee Evans had two receiving touchdowns on Sunday, one of which came on a pass by Jackson.
The Jaguars have one only one game this season by more than seven points, a 37-17 win over the Titans in week four. The Jags are yet to defeat a team that was above .500 at the time they played. In fact, they haven't even faced a team that was above .500 when they played each other. In their last five games, the Jags have three wins by three points or less, a 17-point loss to the Titans and a 41-0 shutout loss to the Seahawks. The Jags are 3-1 at home this season, and all but one of their losses have come by at least 14 points. The Jags have certainly been a very strange team this season.
Maurice Jones-Drew is the key to the Jags' offensive success. When he runs well, the Jags are tough to stop. He has 860 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns this season, plus 32 receptions for 220 yards. David Garrard's new best friend has been wide receiver Mike Sims-Walker, who has certainly been a pleasant surprise in Jacksonville. He has 39 receptions for 603 yards and five touchdowns. Garrard has 2,088 passing yards, seven touchdowns and five interceptions.
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The Jags are coming off two straight losses and are probably feeling overly confident. Sure, a win is a win in the NFL, but the Jags still aren't playing great. The Bills are desperate for a win right now, but the Jags have to win to keep their chances alive at reaching the playoffs. It will come down to whether or not the Bills can stop MJD. The Bills have a strong enough pass defense that they can hold Garrard in check, but they must focus on stopping the run. As long as the Jags play solid defense, the Bills won't score too many points on them. The Bills haven't scored more than 20 points in their last seven games.
The Bills are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games. The total has gone under in four of their last five games. The total has gone over in six of the Jaguars' last eight games. Jacksonville is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games.
Ryno's Pick: The Jaguars are not as good as their record indicates. They have narrow wins over below average teams and have been blown out in almost all of their losses. The Bills are capable of playing solid enough defense to stay in this game and possibly even win it. The Jags have only beaten a team by more than a touchdown once this season, and the Jags' home trend and the Bills' road trend both point to the Bills covering in this one. Take the Bills +9.
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