Arizona Cardinals (11-6 SU, 10-7 ATS) vs. New Orleans Saints (13-3
SU, 8-8 ATS), 4:30 p.m. EST, Saturday, January 16, 2010, Louisiana
Superdome, New Orleans, La., TV: FOX
by Badger of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Cardinals +7/Saints -7
Over/Under: 57.5
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The Arizona Cardinals survived the record-breaking highest scoring playoff game last weekend versus the Green Bay Packers and as their prize, they have to travel to The Big Easy to take on the NFL’s top- ranked and most explosive offense in the New Orleans Saints in NFC Divisional Playoff action Saturday in the Superdome.
The Saints, who will be rested and ready to put their three-game losing streak to close the season behind them, are likely licking their chops at the thought of another shootout with the Cardinals. It took over 500 yards of offense and 45 points, in overtime no less, for the Cards to get past the Packers, so a short 6-day window before another indoor track meet will definitely benefit the boys from New Orleans.
But you can’t count the Kurt Warner led Cardinals out of anything, as this week looks like a Warner vs Drew Brees NFC round two slinging match to see who flinches first.
It’s interesting to note that the oddsmakers in Las Vegas were forced to open this NFC playoff game with the Saints as just one touchdown 7- point favorites, following the showing the Cards gave last week with their been here done that before 45-point outburst. The Saints haven’t been lower than double-digit favorites since the Dallas game in week 15, so the three-game slide has scared away some of the public support the Saints were drawing earlier in the season.
The over/under total opened at 57 and has seen more line movement than the point spread, moving up to 57.5 at a bunch of offshore sportsbooks including a high of 58.5 at 5Dimes.
On paper, it’s not hard to imagine Warner and the Cardinals having to play another perfect game in a 100-point shootout versus Brees and the high-flying Saints.
Offensively these two teams have a ton in common. Both have a bright, young offensive head coach (Ken Whisenhunt and Sean Peyton) who’s experienced in game planning in the playoffs. Both teams have weapons galore at the skill positions with just about all of them capable of scoring on any given play. Both teams also rely heavily on veteran quarterbacks who have the ability to change the play and protections at the line of scrimmage, the name of the game on offense in the playoffs.
That asset to switch plays will serve both Brees and Warner this week, because clearly this game will hinge on which team plays better defense and both coordinators Greg Williams and Billy Davis will scheme for different ways to bring the blitz and get the QBs out of their comfort zone.
The Saints defense didn’t play very well down the stretch, but they did get corners Jabari Greer and Tracey Harper back on the field at the same time. Safety Darren Sharper (knee) and linebacker Scott Shanle (concussion) are expected back to health too (listed as probable), so the Saints defense will be close to full strength with the additional week off.
The Cardinals defense, a unit that was missing in action in the second half of the Packers game, will have to rebound in the secondary in six days or else. Safety Antrel Rolle played, but was clearly a full step slow in pass coverage, and corner Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie also showed some lingering effects from injury. They’ll both need to heal faster, or Brees will find them on Saturday.
Brees and Warner had a nice duel the last time these two team met on the field, a 31-24 victory for the Saints at home in the Superdome in December of 2007. Warner threw for 233 yards and three touchdowns, but Brees had 315 yards and two scores in a game with 41 first downs, 700 yards of offense and five punts.
In fact, New Orleans owns the series versus the Cardinals, both straight up (6-3 since 1991) and against the spread (6-2 ATS). The Saints have covered in four of the last five against the Cards, including two in a row at the Superdome.
But there’s something to say about playing in the clutch, as the Cards are now a perfect 7-0 ATS in Saturday playoff games and 5-0 ATS in the last five playoff games overall.
Badger’s Pick: For my money, there’s something about the Cardinals and their ability to dial it up in the playoffs. Brees and the Saints will get their points, but Warner and the boys find some way to win … again. Take Arizona plus 7-points.
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