Carolina Panthers (2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS) vs. Arizona Cardinals (4-2 SU,
4-2 ATS), NFL Week 8, 4:15 p.m. EST, Sunday, November 1, 2009, University of
Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Ariz., TV: FOX
by Badger of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Panthers +10/Cardinals -10
Over/Under: 41
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The Arizona Cardinals will attempt to keep momentum on their side Sunday afternoon when they welcome the disappointing Carolina Panthers into University of Phoenix Stadium for an NFC tilt on Fox.
The Cardinals are not only sporting a three-game winning streak, but they are coming off of their most complete and impressive victory of the string with their 24-17 win over the New York Giants on the road last weekend. Even though they were outgained by the Giants 327- to-288, the Cards defense forced Eli Manning into three interceptions including one in the final minutes to seal the win.
The Panthers on the other hand continue to freefall into oblivion after last week’s 20-9 loss to the Buffalo Bills. Carolina had over 400 yards of total offense on the day, and they held the Bills and their backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick to 189 yards of total offense, but Jake Delhomme threw three more interceptions and the Panthers lost a fumble as well as their continued sloppy play is shooting them in the foot.
The Panthers have fallen so far that even the oddsmakers in Las Vegas don’t respect them anymore, how else can you explain that the Cardinals opened this game as huge 9-point favorites. Worse yet, the betting public has fallen off the Panther train as well, because the line has moved up to minus-10 or even a few minus-10.5s at a few offshore sportsbooks on the Web because nobody wants to wager their hard-earned scratch on Delhomme chucking interceptions all game.
The over/under total has seen huge line movement opening at 44 before dropping like a rock a full three points down to its current number of 41.
This game will be interesting to watch because it’s a classic case of each team’s strength on offense matching up against the opposing team’s strength on defense.
Arizona is still a very one-dimensional team on offense, riding the arm of Kurt Warner and the receiving core led by Larry Flitzgerald and Anquan Boldin to the league’s 7th-best passing offense at 269.5 yards per game. Even with the addition of first-round pick Chris Wells, the Cards running game still struggles to just 60 yards per game, the worst tally in the NFL.
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But the Cards passing attack will be going up against the Panthers top-ranked pass defense, as Carolina leads the NFL by allowing just 149.7 yards in the air each game. Carolina’s defense as a whole is ranked 4th in the league, so it could be tough sledding for Warner and the Cards come Sunday.
Meanwhile, when the Panthers have the ball on offense they utilize their hard-running duo of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart to pound out 128.7 yards per game on the ground (8th). But as teams have stacked the box to stop them, the Panthers have self-destructed in the passing game as Delhomme has 13 interceptions to just 4 touchdown tosses.
Calls from Panther fans for head coach John Fox to bench Delhomme have fallen on deaf ears so far, and you can understand why because Matt Moore, Josh McCown and A.J. Feeley are the Panthers backup signal callers. Not exactly a step up, even with Delhomme playing like junk.
It could get worse this week because the Cardinals defense is the league’s top-ranked unit against the run, allowing a meager 67.5 yards per contest through six games. The secondary has been gouged at times (257.7 ypg – 29th), and they could be without corner Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie who’s ankle has him listed as questionable, but it’s hard to believe the Panthers and Delhomme will be able to take advantage of the weakness the way they are playing right now.
These two teams have gone in opposite directions since they last played each other too, when the Cards beat the Panthers 33-13 last January in the NFC playoffs in Charlotte. The Panthers won the regular season clash last year too, 27-23 (also at home), but for what it’s worth the Cardinals covered in both games.
In fact, the Cards victory in the playoffs last year snapped the Panthers dominance over them in recent times, as Carolina had won five straight games against them dating back to the 2003 season. The Panthers also covered in three of those five wins, but overall it’s the Cards that hold a slim 5-4 ATS advantage in the series.
There are a few other betting trends to note, including the fact the underdog is 6-2 ATS in the series and the road team is also a strong 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
Badger’s Pick: I feel that the public might be right in jumping on the under in this game as each defense seems well equipped at stopping the other team’s strength on offense. I also don’t think the Cards are a double-digit point spread better then the Panthers right now, but the number has to be set that high to get anyone to take the risk on Carolina right now. I’m taking Carolina plus the points here, but just for a token amount. Take Carolina plus the 10-points here.
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