Carolina Panthers (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS) vs. New Orleans Saints (7-0 SU,
6-1 ATS), Week 9 NFL, 4:05 p.m. EST, Sunday, November 8, 2009, Louisiana
Superdome, New Orleans, La., TV: FOX
by Badger of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Panthers +13.5/Saints -13.5
Over/Under: 52
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The New Orleans Saints will try and remain as the NFC’s lone remaining undefeated team when they host their NFC South Division rival Carolina Panthers in the Superdome on Sunday.
The Saints stayed perfect on the season with a 35-27 victory over their other South Division rival, the Atlanta Falcons, on Monday Night Football last week. The Saints struggled at times against the Falcons, including a sloppy end-of-the-game sequence that gave Atlanta life, but their resurgent defense intercepted a Matt Ryan pass at the goal line and quarterback Drew Brees cashed it in with a coffin-nailing score to keep the Saints atop the standings in the NFC.
The Panthers are coming off of a momentum-building victory of their own when they went into the desert last Sunday and handed the Arizona Cardinals a 34-21 beatdown. The Panthers defense intercepted Kurt Warner five times while the offense compiled 270 yards on the ground to power past the Cards and move one game closer to .500 on the season.
Just like last week the oddsmaker in Las Vegas has been forced to raise the point spread for Saints games to unheard of levels, opening the game with New Orleans as gigantic 14.5-point favorites. The number has adjusted down slightly to its current level of 13.5 at a majority of the offshore sportsbooks, but there are still plenty of books with the number still at 14, so even the large spreads can’t get the public (squares) off of the Saints.
The over/under total opened at 52 and has moved slightly down to 51.5 at a few books (with one 51 at the Hard Rock), but for the most part the number has held firm at 52 during early action at the window.
It no coincidence that the Panthers won last week when they finally decided to do what the do best on offense … pound the ball over and over again with the running game. DeAngelo Williams ran for 158 yards and Jonathan Stewart added 87 yards and two touchdowns as the Panthers two-headed backfield carried the ball 44 times and dominated the Cardinals.
The Panthers renewed running attack also helped them own a five minute advantage in time of possession, and kept the ball out of the hands of quarterback Jake Delhomme, who’s troubles this season have been well documented. Delhomme only threw the ball 15 times, and was knocked out of the game late with a chest injury, but he’s listed as probable for this week.
What else needs to be said about the Saints offense this season that hasn’t already been covered? Drew Brees has full command of the playbook, coach Sean Peyton has an uncanny ability to call the right play at the right time, and with a deep roster of weapons the Saints are virtually unstoppable even when they have multiple turnovers (four turnovers in each of the last two weeks).
On defense something is going to have to break, because both teams are well equipped to stop the opposing team’s offensive strengths.
Carolina is ranked No. 1 in the NFL against the pass, allowing just 160.6 yards per game in the air, but they have yet to face the aerial attack the Saints bring to the table every week. The Panthers do give up yards on the ground though (127.6 ypg – 24th) and also give up a ton of big plays which often times turns into points on the board (23.7 ppg – 23rd).
Meanwhile, the Saints are the league’s 11th best unit against the run, holding opponents to 102.1 yards per game. They are give up their share of big plays (22 ppg – 20th), but they also create as many of their own as they have already returned five interceptions for touchdowns including another one last week against the Falcons.
Will this finally be the year the Saints redeem themselves against the Panthers, since the Cats have owned the boys from New Orleans in recent years.
Carolina swept the season series last year, winning at the Superdome 33-31 in late December, which for all intents and purposes knocked the Saints out of the playoff picture last season. Carolina has won six of the last seven games head-to-head and are 7-3 SU going back to the end of the 2004 season.
The Panthers have also covered the point spread in four of the last five as well (including both last year), but they were only the underdog in one of those five games and have never been larger than a touchdown dog in any of their head-to-head games in the last 10 games.
If recent betting trends hold true, then the Panthers are the logical play in this game Sunday. In the last 17 head-to-head games the road team sports a cash-machine like 15-2 ATS record.
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The under is also following a strong trend, going 7-2 in the last nine meetings, but the two games that came in over the total during that span were both played in the Superdome, so take that stat for what it’s worth.
Badger’s Pick: The Panthers have huge holes in their defensive line, which is why they are so weak against the run. I expect the Panthers to try and continue to grind it out on Sunday as well. All those handoffs means a running clock, which makes this game the best opportunity to keep the Saints from lighting up the scoreboard like a pinball machine. I’m taking my chance on the under here. Take the under of 52.
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