Carolina Panthers (6-9 SU, 9-5-1 ATS) at New Orleans Saints (12-3 SU, 11-4 ATS), Sunday January 1st, 2012. 1:00PM EST, NFL Football Week 17, Superdome New Orleans, L.A.
By Jay Horne, Pro Sports Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Car +9/N.O. -9
Over/Under Total: 55
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The New Orleans Saints destroyed the Atlanta Falcons last Monday Night 45-16 in route to clinching the NFC South Title. The Saints have been red hot winning 7 straight games and securing their spot in the playoffs during that stretch. This week the Saints will put their winning streak on the line when they host a surging Carolina Panthers team that has won 4 of their last 5 games when the two NFC foes meet inside the Superdome.
The Saints would seemingly have little to play for this week but that is quite the opposite. In fact, New Orleans could secure the number 2 seed in the playoffs with a win and a loss by San Francisco. Of course a number 2 seed would allow the Saints to have a first round bye and home field advantage in every match-up except a meeting against the Packers who own the number 1 overall seed. We all know how important the home field advantage can be in the playoffs and New Orleans would love to have the opportunity to grasp that opportunity.
However, this Carolina Panthers team that will visit the Superdome this Sunday is striving a bit under the radar. The Panthers have put together some solid performances in recent weeks winning 4 of their last 5 games. After an impressive 28-13 win over Houston two weeks ago, the Panthers blew out the Buccaneers last week 48-16 in their most lopsided victory of the season. The Panthers offense has been solid all year but in recent weeks they have been even better averaging 32 points per game over the past 5 contests. Everyone is fully aware of the great athletic potential of QB Cam Newton who is hands down the NFL 2011 Rookie of the Year. Newton nearly single handedly revived the Carolina offense this season by making plays with his feet and his arm.
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However, Newton has not posted big numbers in recent weeks during the Panthers hot streak. Instead, it has been the Panthers rushing offense that has come to life and been a big difference maker. Both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are running the ball well which has made a big difference for the entire offense. Instead of attempting 30-40 passes per game, Newton has been selectively brilliant as he was last week against Tampa Bay completing 12 of 17 passing for 171 yards with 3 scores and 0 picks. When the Panthers are rushing the ball well, it takes a lot of pressure off of Newton and the Carolina passing attack.
Newton has struggled with consistency this season just like you would expect with any rookie in the league. However the Panthers have been able to minimize Newton's inaccuracy by keeping his passing attempts down and running the football effectively. If that continues to happen, the Panthers offense is going to be tough to beat. A key stat to remember is that the Panthers are 6-1 SU this season when Newton attempts 30 passes or less. Therefore, the ground game is the key to Carolina's offensive success.
On the other side of the field, the Panthers defense will be under fire from the one and only Drew Brees. Brees broke the NFL all-time single season passing record last week against the Falcons as he pushed his season passing total to 5,087 yards. Brees completed 23 of 39 passing for 307 yards with 4 scores and 2 picks in the performance and the record breaking night overtook Dan Marino's single season mark that had stood for nearly 3 decades.
Now Brees and the rest of the Saints high powered offense gets the privilege to attack a Carolina pass defense that has surrendered 236 yards per game on the year. Wide out Marques Colston and TE Jimmy Graham present some serious challenges to an undersized Carolina defense. Of course when you have a guy like Brees who is having an incredible season, you really don't even need any advantages. Still, New Orleans should match up well and their offense should be primed for another big performance. The question is if the Panthers offense can match the firepower presented by Brees and company when the two teams tangle inside the Superdome.
Jay's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I think this Carolina team is flying a bit under the radar and catch the Saints here fresh off a big victory while possibly not having their full focus. Take the Panthers +9.
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